Monday, February 1, 2010

Second Frame

Since I got so much good feedback on the bowling analogy yesterday, I thought I would keep it going for at least one more frame....  This blog will be a bit more techincal and bumpy so keep your hands inside at all times and fasten your seat belts.

So we went from a consistent bowler from 180 feet, to a less consistent bowler at 150 feet.  Lets first talk about the gutter balls.... In weather terminology, our "weather midnight" is 0z... 7PM while daylight savings time isn't in effect.  At 7PM and 7AM they send up weather balloons so these models normally have the best "grasp" of the storm with up to the minute data, and both the 0z (7PM) and 12z (7AM) models were showing the storm shifting a little farther south compared to yesterday's models which means much less snow.   When I first saw the 0z late last night, I told my friend, Jimmy Noe, think of one fluke model as a gutter ball.  You can remember the muscle memory you just did and visualize how you messed up and just try not to repeat it, so basically put it at the back of your mind and do not think about it.  HOWEVER.... When you get a second gutterball, 12z, you start to wonder....

The 6z model still showed us with a decent snowfall, the most we have seen this year, but will that hold true or will the 12z model.  The most recent model, 18z, has just came through and it is showing that the storm has shifted a little south, but our area still seeing some snow.... just not the most so far this year, but at least it hinted that it wouldn't completely skip over our area like the last system.

In addition to our American long-term model, I took a look at the CFM, Canadain Forecast Model.  Their 12z model looked a lot like the 18z American model.  It has us seeing some snow, just not a "snow storm".

The problem now is that we are not as consistent as we were this time yesterday.... Once the models all agree once again and get back onto the same track it will be easier to pin-point the estimated totals that we could see.  Another benefit 24 hours will bring is an American additional model that goes out 4.5 days.  This will act as a "bowling coach", and help correct any inconsistencies that we are having.  So right now, we still have the system in our line of sight, but its bouncing around a little....  How much snow will we see, well it all depends on the track of the system, hopefully the models will have a better handle and agree a little better within the next 24 hours, and you can bet I will will be back on here to keep you updated, until then, have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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