Saturday, November 29, 2014

Turkey is gone, so is the snow...

I was lucky enough to be invited to a Blue Jackets game with my good buddy Alex this week.  CBJ was down 1-0 with only nine seconds into the game... yikes...  Still a very fun time and we cheered our hearts out.
I spent Thanksgiving with my wife's side of the family.  We had a GREAT time.  There was a band of lake effect snow so heavy that you couldn't see more than a hundred feet.  It took about twenty minutes for a couples inches of snow.  So shopping (after midnight) was a bit dicey on the roads.  I did get some GREAT deals on new jeans and boots... What else do ya need to get the day done right?
The Michigan game means one thing... the meteorology buddies get together.  This is a picture of SOME of us today.  A lot of us still get together on a regular basis for dinner, but it is always great to get the gang together to root on Ohio State.
I also stopped by The Football Fever live shot.  These guys make it look easy, but there is a LOT of moving parts to put on that amazing show.
I got scared when J.T. Barrett went out of today's game with the broken ankle.  Ron Swanson said do not worry and I put on a smile.  Glad we beat TTUN, but not sure what to think of where the offense will go now.  I have faith in Cardale Jones, but I hope the team will mesh fast before the Big Ten championship next week. 
There is one HECK of a cold front on the way... There is a drastic drop in temps in the Plains, but for Ohio it will be somewhat moderated.  Sunday will be a windy, mild day with highs back near 60, but isolated rain showers, especially later in the day.  Temperatures fall quickly Sunday night and Monday with the cold front.  Expect some isolated rain showers early and then some flurries later in the day. We see a brief dry spell, but more isolated rain showers return by Tuesday evening and then on and off the rest of the week.  Staying cool as well.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Update on Thanksgiving snow

I have always loved doing school talks, but today I had the honor of talking to the meteorology class at Mount Vernon High School.  I had no idea that there were dedicated classes for weather... That's AWESOME!!!  I was able to go into more in-depth topics and they were able to understand what I was talking about when talking about the jet streams, low pressure systems, and so much more. 
 Any travel plans for Ohio should be perfect for the Thanksgiving holiday.  But we are keeping an eye on a system dropping a lot of snow and ice across the east coast.  If you are traveling there then make sure to check the forecast for the area you plan on traveling to... but Ohio should be just fine.  We will have some rain by Sunday into early next week.
Here is a look at the forecasted snow for the next few days.  Again, luckily, Ohio will dodge this holiday headache.  Hope you have a fantastic holiday with your friends and family.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, November 22, 2014

First snow done... now... warming up

Here is a map of the reported snowfall totals for midday Monday.  Pretty much right on the money.
But since I was at the station until 2AM, then back in before 10AM... I was a bit loopy and was a tad silly.
Once the sun came out... MAN!  It was a VERY pretty snow.  With little to no wind it settled on all the trees. 
And then it got cold.  Buckeye got a haircut last Saturday so he has been happily sporting the sweater when going outside.
I spent a little over two hours filling the tires with air at a GetGo Tuesday.  Wind chills were in the single digits... and again... I was a tad silly from going numb in those temps.
I was a guest speaker at Ohio State on Thursday to talk about careers in weather and Miss Ohio was there!
Friday consisted of a lot of plumbing.  First was the master shower.  There was a tiny leak and that was fixed...
Then I replaced the dishwasher with a newer model.  I love days off like that... very busy, but I can accomplish so much!
This morning was a MESS on the roads.  We had freezing rain on and off for a few hours and the roads were shut down all over the place.  One viewer messaged me and said he saw over 50, yes 50, accidents on his drive into work this morning.  Freezing ice is impossible to see, and a nightmare on the roads.  I can tell you who will be VERY busy in the coming weeks... Auto body shops!

Enjoy the warmth the next couple of days.  A few spotty rain showers tonight and Sunday, but generally dry for most areas until the afternoon.  Steady winds out of the south will pump in warm air as well.  Rain showers arrive in the late afternoon Sunday and stick around overnight through early Monday.  We stay in the 50's for Sunday and Monday, but the cold front arrives in the afternoon Monday and our temperatures fall quickly.  Back into the 30's for highs for the rest of the workweek.  I am keeping an eye on another cold front for late Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Thursday.  It could bring another shot of light rain or snow... right now the temperatures look to be more in line with snow.  I will have more as it gets closer.  It currently looks fairly light, but still enough to cause some slippery spots.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Final snowfall forecast before the snow arrives

 LIVE CHAT tonight at 8:30, here:
Snow bands in IL into IL and NW OH.  Rain bands through KY into WV.  We have spotty light precip between the two and the models have them colliding between 6-8PM with rain/snow line right over the metro.  Should be all snow by 10PM-12AM for the metro then the rain light slowly retreats to SE Ohio. 
This is the RPM model and it was MONEY last winter.  I wanted to attached it so that way we can check it later to verify it.
I am calling for 2-4" by daybreak along the I-70 corridor (thirty minute drive east or west of it) then another inch by midday.  (Drastically lower totals for far SE Ohio)  If I see any alterations in the forecast, it would be to nudge the heavier snowbands a tad more to the East.  That will be more of a now-cast this evening when the precip arrives and we check the ground temperatures, but for now the image above is what I am going with for the newscasts.

Either way, it will be a mess on the roads for many Monday morning.  The first snow always is a mess.  Stay safe and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

The table has been set... For snow

The National Weather Service has issued the warnings and advisories ahead of the snow for tonight. The latest models have bumped up the amount of snow for areas that will stay all snow. Again, keep in mind that if you see any rain you will drastically see lower snowfall totals. Once we had into this evening and we can see what the temperatures are at the surface you can really fine-tune the snowfall map because you can tell who will see you rain and who will not.strong winds out of the south west today will bump all of us into the mid to upper 30s if not lower 40s. 

It should start right around sundown tonight or after and finish midday Monday morning. So Monday morning's commute will likely be pretty dicey for many areas in central Ohio. Nothing that we have not experienced before, but it is the first accumulating snow of the season meeting that more accidents than normal are very likely. I will have another update later today. So please check back in and have a good one! 

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Rain/Snow mix coming tomorrow night.

This is what Monday morning at 4:30AM will look like for Central Ohio... Lots of rain and lots of snow.... The BIG question is where will that dividing line end up...
Sunday will be fair with Mostly cloudy skies and dry most of the day.  The rain/snow mix will arrive just after sundown.  The rain/snow mix will continue overnight and wrap up by mid-morning Monday.
This is the RPM model run.  It is keeping the heaviest snow just to the NW of I-71.  So the rain/snow line will be right along I-71 or a tad SE.
This is the NAM.  It has the storm shifted a little more east and the highest snowfall just to the SE of I-71.
The GFS is WAY east, by at least another 60 miles. GFS is going the coldest and that is why it is showing more snow than rain and higher totals as well... So not really buying into the GFS, but I wanted to show you how the models are disagreeing.
So this is what I am going with for now.  I think Generally the heaviest snow will be along the I-71 cooridor and then a little east of it for areas north of I-70.  If you see all snow and the rain is just a few miles away... you will be seeing the most snow.  As you move farther into the all snow areas then the totals will be lower as the precip will be lighter.  As soon as you move into the rain areas the snowfall totals will drop off drastically.  As long as the RPM (which was dead on a lot of last year) and NAM verify then far Southeastern Ohio will be lucky to see much in the way of accumulation.

Lot of moving parts here, and I will have another update tomorrow go get a better idea of surface temperatures right before it arrives... because then we can really pinpoint the heaviest snow because the difference of 1° or 2° could mean the difference of no snow and 4" of snow... So check back and enjoy your Sunday before it all arrives.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, November 14, 2014

Snow slowing down, means more for Monday

If you read the blog entry from yesterday then you already have a heads up.  But the European model was holding off on most of the moisture until Monday.  It still has maybe a dusting or some light snow showers Sunday, but the main part of the "measurable" amount of snow looks to arrive Sunday night into early Monday.  So that means roads will be at their worst Monday morning.  And by "Worst" I mean that pretty loosely and if this was a late-season snow it wouldn't need as much as attention as the first one.  Above the models continue to ramp up the snow for early on the 17th.  Please also remember the time is in Zulu time.  So where it says 17NOV then it is actually 8PM Monday Eastern Time. 
So the left and middle model are the American models and the far right is the latest Euro model.  Still some wiggle room because they are not in complete agreement, but it is showing the heaviest of the snow for early Monday to be across Southern and Eastern Ohio.  Sunday will be lighter snow showers with generally less than 1" before sundown.  Then about 1-2" before daybreak Monday and then another 1-2" through the morning and early afternoon.  So some areas to the far south could pick up some decent snow, but as far as The I-71 corridor it looks more like 1-3" and lesser amounts to the Northeast.  More updates to come.  Thanks for checking in and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Update on first season's snow on the way

Boy... What a change!  We had the cold front come through Tuesday evening and it was a HUGE difference from one day to the next.  Nearly a 30 degree drop in no time.  With the colder weather comes snow and that is what we are tracking for the weekend.
Sure, we have had some flurries or a trace of snow... but this weekend could bring the first real snow showers of the season... AND even though most of us have dealt with snow on the roads before, the first snow ALWAYS causes dozens of accidents, so just take it a little slow... (There, no more preaching, HA!)

The American models, NAM and GFS, are pictured above.  They are the predicted snowfall totals by Sunday night.  You can click to enlarge the picture.  Both models (three separate run times) are bringing in the moisture from the south a little earlier (than Euro) and not as much.  They are showing up to an inch for most of Ohio with some pockets over an inch by Sunday night, but a lot of areas just under an inch.  Then it has us dry Monday.  So... not a lot, but enough to make the roads slick.  With temperatures below freezing much today and the next few days the snow will stick to a lot of areas like grass, mulch, and bridges.  The roads and pavement likely will need more time,but it could stick during some of the "heavier" snow showers.
The European model is a little different.  It is showing less snow for Sunday, but holding off on the moisture until more on Monday.  It is actually showing more snow than the American models, but it all looks to be timing at this point.  If the low pressure and the moisture slow down then we will have more to work with, but if we get most of the system to kick through on Sunday, then Monday will be pretty dry.  Either way we will see some snow... be sure to check back in for updates.

Either way... Buck's First Inch Of Snow Contest COULD end in the coming days.

The cold weather will stick around through the end of next week, but the days leading up to Thanksgiving we will warm back into the 40's and even 50's!!!  (Bet you are looking forward to 10 days out ;) ) See ya back here soon with an update, and until then... Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Here comes winter! Update on the season's first snow

We have not had a good "taste" of winter yet this season, in Ohio... but it is on the way!  Enjoy Monday and early Tuesday.  Dry and "mild" for this time of year.  The cold front arrives later Tuesday and then we see our temperatures really fall fast.  A few flurries possible, Thursday, but mainly to the north.  What I am keeping an eye on is next Sunday.
The American GFS model (above) has been slowly increasing its snowfall forecasts through the day today.  
Euro was the first to sniff the snow and it has also been staying pretty consistent with the track of the system on Sunday.  It is still seven days out, but the models are starting to agree, for the most part, that something will happen.  There will be a system developing in the Southern Plains and picking up the moisture from the Gulf.  That will ride up through Tennessee and Eastern Kentucky and (right now) looking to drop the most amount of snow, for Ohio, over the Southeastern portions.  Again, this is still 7 days out... so it will definitely need to be checked and monitored... but the first snow of the season is ALWAYS a talker... (My blog got more views within the last 24 hours than ALL of October)  While the ground is pretty warm now, you can see that temperatures will be very cold through the second half of the week and we could see a fair amount of the snow sticking in spots. 

So check back in through the week as things start getting nailed down... But most importantly... get out and enjoy Monday and Tuesday as much as possible!  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Furniture work, Old Man Winter coming this week

The sunrises/sunsets have been phenomenal this week. 
Our coffee table and end tables look old... light wood and gold trim.  It screams 90's.  We have looked high and low for new, darker wood to match the rest of our stuff, but we couldn't find anything we liked as much... So I got to work.
It took about four hours to sand down the end table.  Legs were hard with the grooves and so was the top with all the lacquer.  But after one coat of stain... not too bad.  I just need to do it again tonight and see how she turns out!  I am also painting the trim silver.  Just have to remove the gold foil.
The polar jet stream is making a HUGE dive later this week.  That means some of the coldest temperatures of the season.  If the northern jet was colder then the news outlets would be freaking out about the Polar Vortex making a return.  Truth be told... this is the same thing, but the pole is in the transitioning stage to winter, so it will be cold, but not shatteringly cold.
Looking ahead... We see a few rain showers later Tuesday, then maybe a few flurries later Thursday when the arctic air arrives... THEN next Sunday will be interesting.  The American model, GFS, is trying to stir something up, but too far south.  The EURO has been consistent with back-to-back forecast model runs with a shovel-able amount of snow for Ohio next Sunday, the 16th.  Still 8 days away... the ground will be warm, but a good bit colder than right now... thanks to our arctic blast later this week.  Stay tuned! Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Snow contest is ON... and settling in at new house

Well, the snow fell for many, but as expected, it came in the overnight time-frame.   My dad shot some video of the fairly heavy snow falling, but of course it melted almost immediately.
I launched the contest on my Facebook page.  Click the link to check the rules and good luck!  I AM giving away a prize pack this year.  Some pretty cool stuff in there that I would rather keep myself, but I know better than that. ;)  So far there have been a few less entries this year compared to last.  Not sure if it is because it has been slightly warmer, or if Facebook changed it's stinking algorithms again. (Probably a mix of the two)
I got the garage organized this week.  The picture above is when I had all the movers just toss it in one half of the garage...
Then I got 90% of it organized...
Had to pick up the final load of stuff from the storage unit.
And now everything is complete.  The only change I will do when I get time is raise the shelf above the work bench.  Right now, I have to hunch just a tad to stand under it.  Plus there are bolts sticking through it and are right at eye level.  So six inch lift would make it AWESOME!
One of our loyal #TeamWeekend viewers is Mindi.  You may remember that she bought one of my mopeds earlier in the year.  She make centerpieces for Tara, Adam, and me.  Super big thanks for the first decoration at the new house!  (All our other pictures, etc are tucked away til we dig through it)
Well... It is that time of the year.  Daylight Saving Time came to an end and the sun is setting before 5:30PM in Ohio.  At least today was pretty sunny.  The good news is that Monday will be a pretty nice day.  Morning temps near freezing so expect frost, but the sun will peak through the passing clouds and we will warm to near 60 by the afternoon.  More rain returns late Tuesday, so the good news is that election day will start dry, but rain returns later in the afternoon and evening.  Then on and off rain showers possible almost every day later in the week.  A huge low pressure system will camp out to our north and just keep wrapping around moisture for the second half of the week.  None of the days will be a wash-out with heavy rain, but just have the umbrella handy for passing light rain showers.  If it was colder we would be dealing with a decent amount of snow... but that time will come... ;)  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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