Thursday, February 28, 2013

Road Trippin: Arnold Sports Festival

I spent the morning reporting from the Arnold Sports Festival. I got to meet some pretty awesome people including a world record jump roper. Her records were insane and I am sure it helps not being tall.  Super fun and pretty bummed I will have to miss next week. Oh well, at least I will be doing weather on the morning show.

I was kinda surprised to see how quickly the snow melted today. There was a good inch by 6AM and then it was gone by the time I left the Convention Center.

On a weird side note... I guess my blog is really popular in China over the last few days. They must be wondering about Ohio weather. Haha.

Few flurries the next few days and staying cold. Not expecting much accumulation.  A little warmer next week, but don't grab the shirts just yet. Have a good one.

Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Snow is moving in

We transitioned over from rain to snow this afternoon. Light snow will continue overnight and tomorrow. Expecting generally 1-2" for Ohio with slightly more for the northwestern part of the state. Lesser amounts to the southeast.
Few flurries for Friday and Saturday then cold for the weekend. We try to warm up a little next week, but no strong warming trend in the near future. Stay safe on the roads and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Monday, February 25, 2013

Patchy Freezing Rain early Tuesday

The image below is a Future Radar from tomorrow morning. I believe it is overdoing the chance for freezing rain a bit, but it does show the best chances will be the western part of Ohio.

We will transition over to rain by noon and stay rain the rest of the day. Be careful on the roads before noon. We transition back to snow Wednesday and then light snow the rest of the week. Have a good one.

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Dual Variated Puch?

So I like to imagine the "What If"s in life.  So I was thinking... what if I not only single variated an e50, but what if I DUAL variated an e50. So blow apart the clutch side and put on Hobbit variators... then run a drive shaft over to the drive chain side of the bike and run ANOTHER set of Hobbit variators.  NUTS, but just a thought I have been toying with and would basically mean I would need to trash a lot of parts to get a torque monster, but imagine the top-end once you revved out...
Turns out one of the Seattle guys already hashed out this idea.
I think it would work much better with a rigid bike.  Especially when the bike would hit a bump.  I would think the chain could come off pretty easy.  Or maybe run a Hobbit rear wheel.  But it just continues to give me ideas...

On to the weather for Central Ohio... Weakening high pressure to our southwest has allowed the clouds to stick around today with the northerly winds bringing in the cloud deck from the Great Lakes.  This also lowered the temps for the next few days.

Mid 40's Monday with partly cloudy skies. Rain looks to hold off until 6-9AM Tuesday.  The leading edge in spots could be a brief wintry mix, but switch quickly to rain.  Rain will be heavy at times through the first half of the day Tuesday.  Then light rain showers early Wednesday and our switch over to wintry mix to snow looks to be late afternoon Wednesday into Wednesday evening. 

Could see 1-2" of snow Thursday and then lighter snow showers each day the rest of the week.  Not expecting a lot of problems on the roads, but I will keep an eye on it over the next few days.  Enjoy the mild weather Monday and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Freezing Rain Team Coverage Recap

Yesterday was a very long day.  I did get the call to come in on Friday for the freezing rain team coverage.  I got in at 3AM and I ran the Social Media Center all morning long.  I lucked out because the freezing rain had JUST started as I was leaving the house, so I got ahead of the worst of the ice.  Once at work, I got a healthy 10.5 hours of overtime on my day off.  Guess I should keep my eye out for any mopeds for sale now.  Haha.
One of the reporters, Tom Bosco, mentioned that we were even throwing the kitchen sink at you and you can easily see all the crew that we had covering the storm... And that doesn't even have the anchors.  It was a long, but fun morning.  I actually came up with the idea of using #OHice on Thursday so I made sure the word was spread around the newsroom.  By the time the sun came up everyone was Tweeting and Instagramming using #OHice and we were able to show all the photos from the ice.  Short, simple, and sweet hashtag.
I took about ten panoramic photos until one finally came out to my liking during the coverage.  It is pretty hard doing that when you are taking one with you in it.  Anyway, it was fun with so many people getting different perspectives of the ice.  By the time the team coverage was done, many of us were getting into a slap happy state as the temperature were warming and the ice started melting.
After a quick nap I then went out with some of the meteorology grads to the Ohio State vs. Michigan hockey game.  The Buckeyes lost, sadly, but we still had a LOT of fun at the game.

A few tranquil days head.  Chilly overnights, but afternoons will warm with the help of sunshine.  Sunday we will climb to near 40 for the high with mostly sunny skies.  Monday will start with sunshine then increasing clouds as we climb into the upper 40's.  Rain arrives early Tuesday and then we transition over to snow by later Wednesday and then snow showers through the end of the week.  It looks like a nice Low will sit over us later in the week so on & off snow showers with light accumulations each day.  More on that for the days to come, but for now, enjoy the sunshine and warmer temperatures before winter returns.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Latest thoughts on Freezing Rain Tomorrow

There is no doubt that freezing rain is the nastiest of winter precip.  The picture above was from freezing rain that hit Ohio Feb 1, 2011.  Here is the blog entry from that day.  Our situation for tomorrow morning is similar, but also a little different... So here is the break down.
These are the temperatures from now until Sunday afternoon.  The Y axis is elevation based on pressure, the X axis is time though Sunday.  Later today and tomorrow will be the most interesting.  Just as a reminder, the times are in UTC time.  So 12z is 7AM and 0Z is 7PM.  The issue is the fact that there will be freezing temperatures at the surface and then above freezing temperatures a few thousand feet up.
If we stayed below freezing the entire time then we would stay snow, but the warm air will melt any of the falling snow.  The thin layer of below freezing temperatures at the surface will take the rain and make it freeze on contact of everything.
Not the next step is when will we be seeing precipitation... Even one degree difference in the warm air will mean snow versus freezing rain.  All of these models are based on Columbus, but they apply to most of Southwestern Ohio as well.  The precip will start after midnight and the models agree that it may start as a snow for an hour or so, then the warm air moves in above us.  The snow will transition to freezing rain.  I am still not confident in how much snow this is showing, I think we could be dealing with more freezing rain than snow.
To better show this, I made an overlay.  You can see where the models are showing the below freezing temperatures all the way up and that is where the snow arrives.  Then the warm air a few thousand feet up melts the snow, but it refreezes.  Then once we get into the afternoon it changes to rain because our temperatures at the surface warm up.
 And to wrap it all up, I wanted to show you the last 24 hours of models in comparison.  It is pretty much guaranteed that Ohio will get freezing rain tomorrow.  By noon we should arrive above freezing and hopefully melt a lot of the freezing rain, because the longer it stays on limbs and power lines the worse it will be.

NOW... you are probably asking "What about where I live?"  The atmosphere is water vapor.  So take a cake dish and fill it with water, now put a small amount of cooking oil on top.  Imagine that the oil is the above freezing temperatures.  Slosh the dish around.  The oil moves around and is pretty unpredictable.  The more oil you add, the more predictable it is.  Tomorrow will be similar to that.  The warm air will be slowly moving in from the south so the south will see the snow change to freezing rain first and they will be the first to see the freezing rain transition to rain.  In general it looks like the precip will start about 1-4AM and have switched over to freezing rain by 5-7AM and then finally switch over to rain by 9-11AM.  Keep in mind that even after we warm above freezing it will still take some time to melt the ice.  The good news is that we will will stay much drier and milder for the weekend.  Just make sure to stay safe out there.  Bill Kelly will be in later tonight for an update and Dana Turtle and Lisa Colbert will be tracking the storm tomorrow morning.  It is my day off tomorrow, but would not be surprised to get a phone call to come in. Here is a link to my work Facebook page if you haven't stopped by yet. Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Morning snow time lapse

I couldn't sleep last night so I went outside and set up my GoPro for timelapse of the rain changing over to snow as the cold front punched through.  I wish the switch from rain to snow was just a little later so you could see the switch, but ehhh, when you play by Mother Nature's rules then you no longer call the shots.  Make sure to put it on HD.

Few flakes through the day today, but only another dusting... if that.  Still looking to stay dry and cold for Wednesday and Thursday.  Friday we could see a little freezing rain in the morning and then we warm up through the day and we transition to rain.  The weekend is looking a little more mild with a lingering shower or two Saturday and then more rain my later Monday.  I will be keeping a close eye on Friday morning because if we see freezing rain then that would mean dangerous roads.

Andrew Buck Michael

Monday, February 18, 2013


I saw this image tonight and it made me laugh... so answer me this... Is it true?

Rain and windy overnight then the rain will turn to a few flakes tomorrow but not amounting to much. Staying cold and dry through the middle of the week then rain (maybe a wintry mix) Friday into Saturday. Next weekend is looking milder with highs in the 40s.  Will keep a close eye on Friday.

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, February 17, 2013

WxChallenge update & wintry mix coming

So I guess I was a little vague earlier this week when I was talking about the WxChallenge... I figured I would explain it a little more.  When I went to Ohio State the meteorology students joined the national competition.  It is for college students studying meteorology and professors.  They now opened it up for alumni so I was added for the spring this year.

The location changes every two weeks so you have to be able to adapt to the changing climate which is actually harder than it sounds because if you are forecasting for a location like Cleveland or other cities along the water it will change things up greatly compared to Oklahoma City with no water mass affecting temperatures and winds.  Anyway the location changes every two week and you enter four forecasts a week.  We still have one week left of forecasts for Burbank, CA.  You enter a forecast by 7PM every Monday-Thursday for the next day... so for the Tuesday-Friday for that week.  (What is nice is being able to submit your forecast for the entire week (4 days) so if you forget to submit each day you can at least have a safe-guard against a missed forecast... which did happen to me once this year)  Each day's forecast has max temp, min temp, max sustained wind (in knots), and daily precip.

Here's the cities for Spring 2013
City Identifier Dates
Austin, TX KAUS January 28 - February 7
Burbank, CA KBUR February 11 - February 21
Newark, NJ KEWR February 25 - March 7
Duluth, MN KDLH March 11 - March 21
To Be Determined* KTBD March 25 - April 4
Wichita, KS ** KICT April 8 - May 4

As I mentioned the forecasting for the cities is VERY intense.  They rank everyone based on accuracy of the forecasts and the ranking updates every hour as the new surface conditions arrive.  To give you an idea of how tough the competition is... on Friday I nailed the max wind, nailed the precip, but only missed the high and low by 2 degrees.  Despite nearly getting the forecast accurate, I only moved up about 100 forecasters in the ranking.  It is fun and challenging, but there has to be a little luck and artwork involved.  It is fun to take a few minutes out of my day to challenge myself by forecasting for a location around the country.  Anyway, I just thought I would share that with you since I got a few questions about the WxChallenge.

Bringing things back locally.  Looking at the latest models I think freezing rain and sleet are looking less likely Monday night into Tuesday morning, BUT we will still have a wintry mix.  Today we are staying in the mid 20's and a little sun trying to peak out.  Monday we will see increasing clouds and warm conditions in the mid 40's for highs.  Rain will begin rolling into Ohio in the early evening.  We will transition to a wintry mix, mainly rain to snow by daybreak with our temps falling back into the mid 30's.  Most of the rain will fall between 10PM and 5AM.  The rain and warm temperatures Monday will keep the snow from really sticking on Tuesday.  Not really expecting a lot of snow because dry air will work in, but with falling temperatures the pavement will ice up later Tuesday.

We stay dry and cold for Wednesday and Thursday.  Friday we warm up a little, but another wintry mix is possible in the morning.  Will keep an eye on that, but I best be getting ready for work.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Suzuki k10 forks disassembly & assembly

I love my k10 forks.  I found that there was very little documentation of them online so when I did come across this useful information, I was sure to keep it handy.  This fork assembly is for k15's, but the same concept to take apart your k10's... except that there is no inner spring, instead the less beefy outer springs.  I found the k15 images on Moped Army, but I figured it would be better to transcribe the directions to make it easier.  At the end of the entry I included all of the original photos, but throughout the instructions, I included the Figures.  Hope this helps anyone interested in getting their Suzuki fork on!   You can click on any of the images to make them larger.  Oh, one final note, the manual calls for 125cc of SAE 10W/30 or ATF.  That comes to 4.22 fl oz, but I personally prefer just slightly more than that for more of a firmer ride and less squish.  I go about 4.4 fl oz  Anyway, here ya go:

   Two basic types of tube forks are used.  Figure 13 illustrates the first type and Figure 14 illustrates the second type. 
   The first type is distinguished from the first type by the presence of the outer tube nut (5, Figure 13) which must be removed to disassemble the forks.  The second type does not have the outer tube nut but has a cylinder retaining bold in the bottom of each fork leg.
   To disassemble the first time with the outer tube nut, perform Step 1. To disassemble the second time, proceed to Step 2.

1.  To disassemble the first time of fork, perform the following steps:
   a. Remove fork tube head bolt. (Figure 15).
   b. Remove spring guide (Figure 16).
   c. Remove fork spring (Figure 17).
   d. Invert the fork tube, and drain the oil (Figure 18). Discard the drained oil.
   e. Remove the dust seal (Figure 19)
   f. Hold outer tube bracket, then remove outer tube nut (Figure 20). If the special tool is not available, wrap a piece of rubber sheeting or section of the inner tube around the outer tube nut, then clamp the nut in a vise (Figure 21). Be careful not to deform the tube by clamping the vise too tightly.
   g. Turn the outer tube counterclockwise to separate the tubes.  The outer tube may be turned easily by using the front axle shaft as a lever.
   h. Slip out inner tube.

2. To disassemble the second type of fork, perform the following steps:
   a. Remove the cylinder retaining bolt.  See Figure 22.
      NOTE: These model forks are equipped with either a small spring steel snap wire retainer on the top of the outer tube or a large snap ring.   The forks which use the large snap ring can be disassembled by just removing the snap ring. It is not necessary to remove the cylinder retaining bolt.
   b. Draw out outer tube (Figure 23).

    c. Loosen upper and lower clamp bolts and remove fork tube (Figure 24).
     d. Loosen fork cap bolt and remove inner tube cap bolt.  Remove spring (Figure 25).

3.  Assembly is the reverse of the disassembly procedure.  Keep the following points in mind:
   a. Replace all O-rings and tube seals.
   b. Clean inside of outer tubes with solvent before assembly.
   c. Refill front forks (Chapter Two)

1.  Aseemble inner and outer tubes (Figure 26) then slide them together.  Check for looseness, noise, or binding.  Replace defective parts.
2.  Any scratches or roughness on the inner tube in the area where it passes through the oil seal will damage the oil seal. Examine this area carefully.
3.  Inspect the dust seal carefully.  If this seal is damaged, foreign material will enter the fork.
4.  Check fork spring for weark.  If you replace one spring, replace the other one also.
5. Replace complete outer tube nut if the oil seal is worn or damaged.

Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, February 15, 2013

Meteor, winter moped projects, & snow forecast

Always feels good finishing a project.  I will get to more of that coming up... Yesterday and today were my days off this week and this morning I have been pouring over the meteor videos from Russia, and this is, in my opinion, is the best compilation of clips, take a look:
I could only imagine how scary that would be... pretty sweet video.

Back to here in the States... Taylor came over to the garage yesterday as I was finishing my winter projects.  Even though it felt great... it was a little numb since the temp in the garage was barely above freezing, but they ARE winter projects for a reason, right?
My Magnum has been finished for a few weeks, but I finished reassembling the front end of the Maxi including raising the front fender, which will help clear the wheel now.  The heat from powder-coating tweaked the fender's metal.   Anyway, both of my bikes are back to 100% and ready for the season.
Caleb came by the garage and dropped off a new light for us.  It was a HUGE help since it was windy we wanted to keep the sub-freezing wind chills out.  We were able to be much more productive with the extra light.
In return we threw a set of k10 Suzuki forks on Caleb's bike.  For anyone wanting to do this to a Magnum, the bottom race that comes on the k10 forks will work just fine with the Magnum bearings and cups.  When you are wanting to convert to a Maxi, you will need a new headset.  You will need to replace the bottom race on the triple tree with a Maxi race and when you do that, you might as well replace the cups on the head of the frame.  The picture at the top of this blog was Taylor cutting off the back tab on the k10 forks.  Other than that and boring out the axle holes to 12mm, there isn't a whole lot of fabrication unless you want to run disc brakes.  I have a few links to when I put k10's on my bikes with discs, here are a few links: here, here, here, here, and here.  Taylor ordered a new swing arm and tires for the bike.  So once we get the parts in it should be only a matter of time before Caleb's Magnum is finished and out of my garage.
I am a little disappointed with myself.  As you may have noticed in my last blog entry, I have been very busy at work helping get the new forecast graphics ready for our launch earlier this week.  It has come at a cost.  I am participating in WxChallenge with college students and professors and my forecasts have been sub-par.  The forecast is due at 0z each day, (7PM until daylight saving time, then 8PM) but I have been working right through 7PM.  I remember around 9PM so I to post a forecast 20 hours before the deadline, but my forecasts have not been as accurate as I would like.  I NEED to get on the ball and be better about looking at fresh materials.  I have still been fairly accurate from a "viewers" standpoint, but I am up against the best forecasters in the nation and some of them are pouring over the data with a LOT more time on their side.  Some of these guys are nailing the high, low, and wind forecast dead on for a few days... hard to do with an old forecast.  I did set up an alarm on my phone to remind me an hour before the deadline to ensure fresher forecasts.  I WILL revenge my name!  (Can you tell it is my day off and I have had too much coffee already)
Alright, on to our weather here... and not Burbank, CA.  Our temps over the weekend will stay below freezing with highs in the mid, upper 20's.  The cold front swinging through today will bring some light snow, but nothing like what the CMC was showing the entire week... Guess what CMC, you just lost some of my respect!  It was consistently showing 6+ inches of snow... but I was VERY hesitant with using that, especially as my only source of information.  Knock that up as one more the GFS (American model) got correct.  Anyway, between late Friday and Saturday we could see a light coating, an inch or two, but nothing you would need the shovel for.

We warm up Monday back into the 40's and then more rain Monday night ahead of another cold clip of air for the middle of next week.  There is a chance for a wintry mix by the end of next week, but temperatures will be the deciding factor, so stay tuned.  Enjoy the weekend, keep the coat handy, and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Behind the scenes

I am exhausted. Three long days so far this week before our launch of the new weather graphics today. I have been working behind the scenes with graphic changes. We have about 500 scenes and each one needed rebuilt for the new look. Some more than others. It was a successful launch today at 5PM and I am excited for the 3D graphics we will be able to build for the weeks and months ahead.

It looks like the Friday and Saturday we could see a couple inches of snow. Maybe a little more in spots. Ahead of that tomorrow we will be fairly mild. Then the snow and colder for the weekend. Another brief warm-up early next week followed by more arctic air for the middle of next week. Off to relax and maybe pick up some flowers. Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Back to the main page