Saturday, January 31, 2015

Final update for Sunday's snow... or lack-there-of for Central Ohio

Wanted to tweak the snowfall totals one final time before it all arrives... It hasn't arrived yet, but the warm air continues moving in... So while we may see some snow early, the rain in the afternoon will quickly melt any of the early snow.  So by late Sunday these totals may be melted away for most of the area, except far Northern Ohio.  Here is a few snaps of Futurecast for tomorrow:
Early wintry mix is likely, including some of the accumulating snow mentioned in the top image.
But the models are showing some dry, warm air working in through the late morning.
And then notice how far north the rain/snow line is once the majority of the precipitation arrives.
Even by 7:30, most of Central Ohio will be seeing rain and snow stays to the far, far Northern portions of Ohio.
And the rain continues to melt the majority of the snow for areas south of US 30.
Once we get to Monday morning our temperatures fall FAST!!! I expect icy conditions Monday morning as our temperatures fall back into the low teens.  So even if you see rain, Monday may be a mess in the morning as our temperatures fall VERY fast and cause everything to ice up... since the ground is already below freezing.

Thanks to EVERYONE who has stayed up-to-date with this system.  Time to get back to the news, but just wanted to keep you all posted.... Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday's snow storm continues to shift north

As I just said on my Facebook page:

This storm continues to be squirrely... but it still has not arrived yet... so we continue to adjust the forecast...
AND... as long as you stayed up-to-date with the changing system, first off... I thank you and I can assure you, you will stay ahead of this. It has been quite crazy the last few days, and I hope to shed some light into WHY it has been like that here:
I have loved this analogy for a long time... Bowling... The bowling lane is to scale.  The storm late Thursday was expected to track along the Ohio River... The high pressure off the East Coast has been stubborn and stronger than the models expected, so it is forcing the Low to shift to the north... So it take less than 2° when bowling to hit the front pin, to going in the gutter... this storm has shifted about 4° to the north from the models late Thursday to today... so within the last 48 hours.  So that means it is bringing the warmer air farther north which means Central and Southern Ohio will be seeing MUCH LESS snow and more rain.
So here are my totals... BUT some of this is BEFORE we see rain.  So the ½" - 2" is before we see rain for about 12 hours... so that will melt most of the snow.  ***The storm is still bringing the same amount of snow, but the track has went north.***
As of 5PM, here is the latest look at the advisories/warnings.   Winter Storm Warning for Northern Ohio and Winter Weather Advisory for Central Ohio along the I-70 corridor until midday Monday.  HERE is the link to the ABC6 weather site with the latest winter weather warnings.

A wintry mix arrives for Central Ohio tonight.  Warm air will work in Sunday and any snow accumulations for Central and Southern Ohio will be melted by rain showers.  Rain showers will remain persistent through most of Central/Southern Ohio Sunday with the snow mainly staying in the Northern third of Ohio.  The rain/snow line will stay from Bellefontaine to Marion to Mansfield most of Sunday with some freezing rain and sleet mixing in at times.  Temperatures will sharply drop Sunday night so any remaining moisture will refreeze overnight with another quick round of snow. 

Accumulations of 4"-8+" for the Northern third of Ohio.  Just north of the metro will pick up a few inches, but rain will melt that some during Sunday.  Columbus Metro will see between ½" and 2" of snow before the rain moves in Sunday and melts the majority of that.  Southern Ohio will see little to no snow. The lingering snow showers Sunday night & early Monday may bring another ½"-1", but the main concern will be the refreeze for Monday morning.  Another round of light snow possible on Wednesday.

This storm has been one squirrel of a storm... As much as you are annoyed by the changes in the track of the storm... I am right there with you.  A lot still will depend on the temperatures tomorrow.  If we stay a tad cooler(not looking very likely) then we COULD see the snow farther south... But most of the accumulating snow is looking to be for Northern Ohio with this one...  If there are any more changes, I will be back on with an update.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

UPDATE ENTRY: "Final update for Sunday's snow... or lack-there-of for Central Ohio"

Saturday morning update for tomorrow's snow

The storm is trending to nudge north with every update now. So for those that don't want snow in Columbus... It looks like we will be getting less snow than first thought and more rain for along I-70 and areas to the south.
So this means areas that are rain will see MUCH LESS snow. Not only will you be seeing rain instead of snow at a certain time (afternoon/evening Sunday) but the morning snow on Sunday will be melted by the rain. So when I give snowfall totals I will be giving how much will be FALLING, not necessarily how much you will have by Monday morning. A couple hours of rain can melt a LOT of snow. 
NAM still is the most northerly model. It has very little snow for along I-70 and south for Ohio. Then accumulations ramp up fast from I-70 to US 30... And then all snow north of US 30. 
GFS still has 2-5" for the I-70 corridor, but more north and less south. 
Euro still is the most aggressive and, in my opinion, not accounting for the warm air as much. 
Snow will start for all of us Sunday morning then the Southern half of Ohio will see the warm air move in for the afternoon and evening Sunday. It depends on where you live as to timing of the switch over. Then some light snow after we cool back down. 

So the storm is still bringing the same amount of snow, but that snow has move more North. The subtle change in direction when it left the Rockies means our rain/snow line has moved about 80 miles in the last three days of forecast models... Plus keep in mind... While Columbus may see 2-5" of snow, once we switch to rain for a few hours much of that will be melted with only a little snow once we cool down enough for snow. 

I will have a much more detailed forecast map when I get into work this afternoon... Blogging this from my iPhone.  No need to buy tons of bread and milk, but might not be a bad idea to get out some board games of you live in Northern Ohio. See us later today, and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, January 30, 2015

Sunday's storm shifts north

I think I said about five times yesterday that staying up-to-date with the coming storm will be important... and that the NWS was going to send up another weather balloon in the storm to get a better idea.  With that additional data from the starting point of the storm, the models ALL shifted back to the northerly track.  This is nothing new for storms to change direction a little a few days out.  Think of it like bowling... a half a degree difference could mean a strike or gutter-ball...

Also, take the models with a grain of salt, I am not a hype person, but I like to show you what I take a look at...
Here is the weather balloon sounding from yesterday.  For most folks, this is mish-mash, but for computer models... this is like a coloring page where the lines are drawn and you just have to fill in the open spots.  So let's dive in...
IF, big IF, the models hold true to the last couple runs then that means warmer air will work into Southern Ohio and bring rain.  Just like last Sunday... 1° or 2° could mean the difference between a LOT of snow, or rain and then very little snow.  That is even more true with this storm because it is bringing so much more moisture.
So let's look at the latest forecast models.  The first one, above, is last night's NAM.  NAM has always been the most Northerly track of the storm.  (By the way, click the images to make them larger)
The evening model of the GFS also shifted back north.  The gray spikes are likely the model trying to incorporate some of the heat island effect from the cities in Dayton and Columbus.  Let's move on...
The morning NAM model, above, has even a sharper difference.  It has the rain/snow line parked RIGHT OVER I-70.  So Columbus seeing 6+", but Chillicothe seeing about 1".  Honestly... I HATE the snow/rain storms because that rain/snow line will be the main player in snow accumulations.  On we go...
The morning GFS went a tad more south compared to last evening's run.  But it still has a sharp cut-off the lower snowfall totals to the south because of the rain.
And lastly... the Euro from last night.  It is agreeing a lot with the morning GFS.  Again, we saw the shift within the last 24 hours and while I don't think we will see another dramatic shift that fast again, it is possible.  A very subtle change in direction will greatly affect us here in Central Ohio, since the storm is still enjoying its time in Arizona.  So please check back over the next couple days so that way you get the most up-to-date forecast....
Timing still looks the same with the snow starting around daybreak Sunday... keep snowing all day... and lasting into Sunday night.  So we will not see our snowfall totals until Monday morning.

Currently, no Winter Storm Warnings have been issued, but I do anticipate them to be issued within the upcoming day or two.  That's your Friday morning update... check back soon for another update.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

P.S. Now I go back to waiting at the dealership.  My wife's car had a recall and I have been blogging from next to a SWEET Camero...  They wouldn't let me blog from inside it.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Sunday's storm taking a right turn

As I mentioned in the last blog, this storm may adjust a little and it did. The Euro was first to pick up on a more Southern track.  Sure enough the other models followed track and the heaviest snow for Ohio looks to be between I-70 and the Ohio River. Still could shift a little and I heard word that the NWS will be sending up a weather ballon into the storm, which is still over the Southern Rocky Mountains.

I will give you a look at the models and then offer my thoughts, so take the models with a grain of salt. So here we go: 
The NAM is showing the most Northern track, but only goes out to hour 84 and that is right during the height of the storm. So I will post again tomorrow so it shows the full snow totals. 
The GFS has Southern Ohio seeing upwards of 6" snow by midday Monday. 
The Euro is still pretty close to that too, but has more of a wider path. 
The above image is the model trends of snow accumulation for Columbus. 
Timing... Looks like late Saturday night we start seeing the snow move in to Central Ohio. The heaviest snow will be through the day Sunday and we will continue to see light snow early Monday. 

Again, still will need to be tweaked a little, but the Southern half of Ohio looks to see around 6" of snow with a little more and less in some areas. The Northern third of Ohio will see 2-4" for far Northern Ohio and then 3-6" for the areas just north of I-70.  PLEASE check back for updates, because we are still talking about a storm about 2,000 miles away from Central Ohio and there will be adjustments. Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Two winter systems on the way

Sunday's snow was just as expected... other than it STARTING as snow.  Temps were a couple degrees above freezing on the surface, but the warm air was so shallow that the snow did not have time to melt into rain at first... but it did fall as rain most of the afternoon.
Monday I posted on my Facebook page that I would help out anyone not capable of shoveling their driveway.  I got a HUGE response and did as many as possible.  Great to meet so many of you and lend a helping hand.
Then I got home and Buckeye said he needed some help too for his patio when he goes outside. 
Alright a couple systems on the way for this week.  The first one will be Thursday afternoon and evening.  Our temperatures will be near 40° in Columbus in the afternoon so it will start as rain.
We will transition over to snow by the evening.
And possibly some brief snow on the back side of the system.  Accumulations will be light to no snow sticking... and the rain beforehand will actually melt some of our existing snow.
Sunday looks to be a LOT like last Sunday.  I will have another update, so check back in over the coming days... because the models still are not agreeing on track or timing exactly... BUT according to the latest models, the heaviest precip will be Sunday night.  It looks like Central Ohio will start off with some light snow then transition back over to the wintry mix with mainly rain south of I-70.  Some of the models have the rain/snow line a little farther south than I-70, so please check back for updates.
This system will have a little more punch than the last storm.  It will still continue snowing some into
Monday morning.  The northern third of Ohio will see upwards of 6" of snow for many locations.  Southern Ohio will see dramatically less and the I-70 corridor will see the drop off between the two totals. 

Here is another look.  Again, placement of the snow totals is hard to say at this time.  But I just wanted to give you a heads up and will be back with more over the coming days.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Update to Sunday's snow

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY issued for much of Central Ohio for Sunday and Sunday night. 
 The storm system is still in North Dakota as of Saturday afternoon, but will arrive for Central Ohio Sunday morning and last through Sunday night. Snow is expected for Northern Ohio with Southern Ohio seeing rain then transitioning over to snow briefly Sunday night. According the latest forecast models, the I-70 corridor will be the dividing line between the rain and snow.

***There will be a dramatic cut-off of high snow accumulations to much lower snowfall totals due to the rain.*** Snowfall totals will be 2"-4" along the I-70 corridor. Higher totals for Northern Ohio and less for Southern Ohio.

Stay tuned to the forecast on WSYX ABC 6 and WTTE FOX 28 for any tweaks to the forecast as the storm system nears Central Ohio. 

Lingering flurries or light snow showers Monday and Tuesday and staying below freezing throughout the day.  Another wintry mix expected for Thursday.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, January 23, 2015

Tracking this weekend's snow

Get ready for another round of winter weather for Ohio.  It is not looking to be a TON of show, but enough to make it slick over the coming days.  I posted the graphic above on my Facebook yesterday, and the track of the storm is becoming a little clearer.
First we are tracking a big storm heading up the East Coast.  We will be on the far edge of the storm, but you can see some rain showers for SE Ohio this evening and as the temperatures fall we will see it switch over some snow this evening.
Accumulations by Saturday morning will be pretty light, but far SE Ohio could see up to an inch of snow.  Not much of anything for us here in Columbus.
Saturday looks decent with light winds and mostly cloudy skies, maybe a flurry or sprinkle in the evening.
Then we get to Sunday.  Snow showers move in around daybreak Sunday.
The current track of the storm will have I-70 the general snow/rain line.  Areas that stay all snow will see several inches of snow.
But Southern Ohio will see more rain showers and that will melt some of the snow that already had fallen.  Most of the system is out of here by 8PM Sunday evening.  Other models are going a little slower with the timing of the system and lingering a little overnight into early Monday. 
Here is the in-house RPM model snow accumulations, above.  The heaviest snow will fall from Toledo to Pittsburgh with less south.

So here are my thoughts.  If the storm shifts south then this forecast will do the same.  I think 1-2" for the Columbus metro area.  I still have 1-2" across SE Ohio, but if the Sunday rain melts a lot of the Friday night snow then totals will be lower.  The Northern portions of the viewing area will see 2-4" of snow with even higher totals, 3-6" across the Northern third of Ohio.  So not a major snow storm, but enough to make it slick and cause some issues.

Then we stay below freezing for Monday and Tuesday. I will have another update to the Sunday system, here, on my blog.  So check back in for updates... until then, have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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