Thursday, January 28, 2016

Chilly today, but warmer temps on the way

Summer can compete with the best of them in a staring contest.  Over the weekend we were hanging out at our friends house and Jack and Summer went on for hours practically! 
I have been working on new graphics.  Some spotty light rain/snow tonight and early tomorrow, but Saturday looks like a great day to wash the car.  Rain returns late Sunday, so might not be the best day to get the car washed... unless you want mother nature to take care of it.
Even more rain for early next week. A couple rounds of light rain/snow possible today.  Temperatures will be cold enough for flurries/snow in the morning and later in the evening, but midday and afternoon will be warm enough for rain.  Any precipitation will be light and any snow accumulations should be nothing or up to half an inch.  Staying cold Friday then much warmer for the weekend.  Saturday will be dry and partly cloudy, but rain returns Sunday. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Weekend at home, rain today, flurries on the way, then WARM!

video
This weekend was a  fun weekend hanging out at home.  We are all still trying to get healthy, but keep passing the cold back and forth to each other.
Summer is getting better and better at eating her food... Despite what this photo look like.  Her bib is looking cleaner and cleaner every day. 
Tracking some rain to start the morning.
And falling temperatures on the way through the day. 
A cold front will move through today bringing some early rain and then falling temperatures through the day. We will start the morning in the mid 40s, but drop into the mid 30s by the afternoon with breezy conditions. A few flurries possible tonight. Staying mostly cloudy Wednesday and chilly. A few flurries or light snow showers are possible late Thursday into Friday with little to no accumulation expected. We warm up for the weekend with highs near 50! Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, January 22, 2016

Full breakdown for the big snow storm


So Central Ohio is dodging a big bullet with this winter storm.  Portions of West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland through the weekend will see a LOT of snow.
As of 7AM, here are the counties under a Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning.  Columbus it not part of either. 
Snow arrives midday today for Southern Ohio and will push into Central Ohio late afternoon/early evening.  Above is an animated image of the snow pushing in today starting at Noon and the showing it out of here by Noon tomorrow.  The Columbus metro will see the snow for only a handful of hours this evening, but Pike and Athens County will see the snow for hours on-end tonight and heavy at times.
So here is the snowfall forecast that we have been using the last couple of days.  We have only made very very minor adjustments.
So taking a look at the RPM map that came out at 6AM today... We are right on with the RPM.  The RPM (our in-house model) is normally VERY accurate 24 out.  So I am really happy that we have stuck to our guns.  Now time will just tell...
Today's forecast summary:  The track of the major winter storm for the Eastern United States is staying on course and Ohio will be on the very edge of the storm. Snowfall totals will vary greatly across Central/Southern Ohio. Columbus could see up an inch or so, but Pike or Athens county could see 3"-6"+ by midday Saturday with more farther south. Snow will start midday Friday for Southern Ohio and then move into the Columbus Metro around the evening commute. Snow will taper off for the Metro after midnight, but continue for South and Southeastern Ohio. By Saturday morning the snow will start moving out of Southern Ohio leaving us all mostly cloudy for most of the day with a little sun possible later in the day. Sunday looks dry and partly cloudy. Tracking rain and a wintry mix for early next week. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Thursday's update for Friday/Saturday's snow

Staying partly cloudy today and a "milder" afternoon. Increasing clouds tonight and staying dry tonight and early Friday.
Still tracking a major winter storm for the Midwest and East Coast Friday and early Saturday. A few of the models are still bouncing around on the track, so be sure to get the latest forecast Friday morning when we can really nail down the snowfall forecast, but as of now, Central Ohio will be on the far Northern edge of the system. Above is the watches/warnings so far for Friday and Saturday.
Here is a screen shot of the mapped out forecast that we are going with this morning... BUT I am a little curious to see how the models pan out today and tonight.
Here is a little more of a zoomed in look at our official forecast, as of Thursday morning.  Again... this may change tonight and tomorrow before it arrives.
Our in-house model, the RPM, did a northerly shift this morning.  That is the image above. PLEASE take it with a grain of salt, because it is the only one out of the five models that shifted more North since yesterday.  As you may see there is a little bit of a difference, but I just wanted to highlight the fact that this storm is not nailed down just yet. There will be a sharp cut off from little to no snow in Central Ohio to the heavy snow in Southern Ohio and Kentucky. The heaviest snow for the storm is still looking to track from Kentucky through West Virginia, Virginia and up into Maryland.
Timing: The snow will arrive midday Friday for the Southern Ohio and arrive in to metro around the evening commute. Snow will wrap up around daybreak for Columbus on Saturday, but snow still expected for Southern Ohio through Saturday. Northern Ohio will not see much snow from this system. Most of Central Ohio could see up to 2". Southern and Eastern Ohio will see the most snow with Pike and Athens County potentially seeing 6"+. Again, please check back in Friday morning for an update. Dry late Saturday and Sunday then a winter mix early next week. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Doctor dad, snow today, more on Friday

So I think I got Dawn and Summer sick.  They wouldn't take naps at the same time, so thankfully Summer was pretty happy once she woke up.  
Snow is on the way!
Here is the RPM's forecast of snow by 5PM today. I think it may be under-doing it just a tad, so you may want to add a little for the SW counties.
More snow arriving Midday Friday through Saturday morning.
Before the map of snow, here's the extended forecast... Tracking a few winter systems on the way. Today we will see snow showers through the morning and midday, but the snow will be moving out by the afternoon and evening. Accumulations will be up to 1" across most of Central Ohio, with slightly higher totals possible in spots, mainly for Southern and Western Ohio. Tonight we see the clouds break up a little and staying partly cloudy Thursday. A major winter storm will hit the the Midwest and East Coast Friday and early Saturday. Central Ohio will be on the far Northern edge of the system so there will be a sharp cut off from little to no snow, to a lot of snow. The heaviest snow for the storm is still looking to track from Kentucky through West Virginia and up into Maryland. For Central Ohio, the snow will arrive midday Friday and be wrapping up by daybreak Saturday.

Most of Central Ohio could see up to 2". Southern and Eastern Ohio will see the most snow with Pike and Athens County potentially seeing 6"+. The forecast models are still disagreeing a little on the track of the storm, so stay tuned because a small shift in the storm could drastically change our snowfall forecast. Dry late Saturday and Sunday then a winter mix early next week. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Big snow on the way?

I join you from the desk of Adam Aaro today.  I didn't want to step on anyone's toes and take their desk.  Since he started his new job in Dayton yesterday I jumped on in, now that I am off of the set for Good Day Columbus.
Wind chills were the big story today.  Wind Chill Advisory til 10AM this morning.

Another frigid start to the day with wind chills between -5 to -10 all morning.  A mix of sun and clouds today and warming into the upper teens. Winds lighten up as well today and tonight. More clouds tonight and then cloudy with light snow showers for Wednesday. Snow accumulations by Wednesday evening will be around an inch for Central Ohio. North of I -70 may see a little less and South of I-70 may see a little more.

We dry out for Thursday, but will be watching the potential for a significant snow storm for Friday into Saturday.

Want a breakdown?  Let's get a little nerdy...
So the image above shows the comparison of the NAM and GFS models.  We are out of daylight saving time, so the dashed line for the "new day" is 7PM for the day before (0z UTC).  The timing of Wednesday's snow looks to start after the morning commute and be done by the evening commute.  Notice that the Friday snow is bouncing around a little on timing.  The 18z version from yesterday had the snow starting around 6-7PM on Friday, but the newest model 6z (at the top) has it starting midday Friday and snowing heaviest from 3-6PM Friday.  So this just shows you that this system is still bouncing around a little.
There is a Low Pressure off the West Coast...  that will assist in bringing Friday/Saturday's snow.  It will ride down toward Northern Texas then turn back up to Delaware.  It kinda falls apart over the Rockies but reorganizes over Texas.  If the storm makes even a SUBTLE shift right or left then it could change the track dramatically.  This thing has to move over the Rockies then back down into the Plains.  So take these next models with a grain of salt and PLEASE check back in over the coming days.
This image, above, shows the weather map at 1PM Friday. The royal blue dashed line in Eastern Tennessee and Kentucky that runs through West Virginia over to Southern Delaware is the rain/snow line.  Based on this model it is keeping Ohio in the all snow track.  Notice the Low Pressure (black 1004 isobar) is over Eastern Tennessee in this map.
So who will see the most snow?  Right now the heaviest track of snow looks to be through Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, and into Pennsylvania. With this southern track, this means Southern Ohio could deal with more snow than Central and Northern Ohio. As we get closer to the end of the week we will be able to start getting a good idea as to how much snow we can expect.  I am not going to speculate to snowfall totals just yet, but it is likely somewhere in the Midwest/East Coast will get a LOT.

Again, these models keep coming out all day long every 6 hours, so more and more information will be coming in and once the Low drops on this side of the Rockies we will get a much more accurate look at the track of the storm. So please check back in and take these maps with a grain of salt.  They are not the final forecast and shouldn't be treated that way.  I just wanted to give you a heads up and a nerdy look into the storm. 

Also to note... the first couple "winter storms" of the season tend to shift more North than what the models show.  BUT that is normally in November and December.  We have cooled down a lot and we will have to see if the models are grasping this one properly with our colder air, or if they will shift that band of snow more North.  So stay tuned.  I will have more to come in the days ahead.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Sorry if there are typos... trying to crank this out before going home to take care of a sick wife and baby.

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Monday, January 18, 2016

Another sick weekend at home, cold morning, & snow returns

Luckily I am feeling, and sounding, better.  But Dawn and Summer were under the weather this weekend.  Just a cold and congested, but we did lots of resting this weekend. We eventually had to get out of the house and went out for dinner.  Summer had really soft pants and that can be a lot of fun on granite table.  Summer enjoyed it!  We have had a hard time getting Summer to eat baby food with a spoon til we heard a tip that said put the spoon on her bottom lip, then let her go for it.  BINGO!  She has been doing a LOT better at eating from a spoon now and it's very exciting.
Buckeye has been snuggling with his duck the last few days.  Adorable.
Yesterday I went to a motorcycle liquidation sale with Marcus. No heat and little light, but lots and lots of random parts.  I picked up a leather tool bag to stash a rain cover that I also picked up.  Not bad for $25! 
Wind chills are VERY cold this morning!
Wind Chill Advisory until 1PM today and it will feel below 0° through the entire morning.
A few clouds, otherwise the sun will try coming out today to try to warm us up. Morning wind chills will be frigid, between -10 and -15. Winds slowly lighten up through the day and night. More sun Tuesday and cold, but snow returns Wednesday. Accumulations should be light and generally around 1". More snow possible on Friday and Friday night. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, January 15, 2016

Lots of Summer & Buckeye time. Cold returns soon

Since it's been so snowy, we have been stuck inside for quite a while. Which means lots of time reading books.
Dawn took a picture of Summer and Buckeye to send to a loyal viewer and pet fanatic, Pat.  Pat loves Buckeye and always tweets and asks how Summer is doing with Buckeye so I thought I would send him a special photo.  Hope you enjoyed it Pat!  (Notice Summer has a dog on her shirt and about 500 dogs on her pants)
We hit 47° for the high yesterday so the entire family went out for a walk to try to enjoy it before it gets cold again.
May need to do another walk today.  These are the morning temps at 5AM today!  Big difference from 2 days ago when wind chills were between -10° and -15°.

Mild with a lot of clouds for Friday ahead of rain for the afternoon and evening. Rain showers to start the overnight then switching to some light snow by Saturday. Colder and breezy for the weekend with some light snow showers with little to no accumulation expected. Temperatures become frigid for early next week. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Back to Riverside Hospital & more snow coming

Our nephew, Gabriel, was born on Monday morning at Riverside Hospital.  It was almost exactly seven months after Summer was born there.  So we had to do another photo like the one posted about nine months ago when we did our hospital tour, in a previous blog entry.
BUNDLE UP TODAY!
A bitterly cold morning with wind chills between -10 and -15 at times. We see sun to start the day, but clouds move in for the afternoon with snow showers expected for the late afternoon and evening. The snow will mainly affect the Northern half of Ohio with accumulations less than 1". Little to no snow for the Southern half of Ohio. Most of the snow is gone by midnight. Temps bounce back above freezing midday Thursday with mostly cloudy skies. Even warmer on Friday with rain arriving later in the day and then transitioning to snow on Saturday as colder air returns. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Monday, January 11, 2016

Fairly quiet weekend... finally. More snow coming.

This weekend was one of our first weekends that Dawn, Summer, and I stayed home with very, very little planned.  One thing that was sad was Adam Aaro leaving to go to Dayton to be the main evening anchor. Best of luck to him, but our loss is their gain.
Summer got to see her first snow of her life.  She loved watching the flakes falling.  I explained them as a summer rain, but much colder.
We saw our first inch of the year, breaking the record for latest first measurable snow.  The old record for Columbus was January, 2nd 1929. 
Which means we finally ended Buck's First Inch Of Snow Contest.
BOY, is it cold this morning! 

A cold, windy day ahead to start the workweek with some slick spots from Sunday's snow. More snow arrives Monday night and will continue into Tuesday. By Tuesday evening we can expect 1"-2" for most of Central Ohio with some pockets seeing closer to 3". Very cold air arrives Wednesday with morning wind chills as cold as -10. More light snow possible late Wednesday with a clipper system, mainly north. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

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