Saturday, December 27, 2014

Christmas wasn't white, but 2015 will start COLD

Christmas with the Michaels always involves shenanigans outside.  My sister's van only had one break working because there was air in the brake lines.  So we bled her brake lines... but then we found a leak and my dad had to fix that for her.  Good thing she only needs the car one more year... then off to college. 
Last week my blog was a little quiet because instead of gifts and "things" for Christmas, the entire family went to Disney.  I still don't have any of the high res photos, but this is one of the better ones of the entire clan.  So much fun and FANTASTIC weather!
This picture sums up a lot of the week with me and Clark... shenanigans. 
Buckeye has been LOVING the weather here the last few days.  The sun was nice and the temps in the 50's isn't too shabby for late December.   
I have posted a lot of my moped happenings, but now that they are gone I am using the knowledge on other things.  With the warm temps I took off the carburetors from my Honda CB400t.  I am going to clean them and the weed-wacker carb.  I noticed the weed eater was only getting about 1/4 throttle... I am going to soup that puppy up!!!

As far as the weather... we have a cold front about ready to roll through.  Rain will be pretty steady for a lot of the overnight.  As temps fall into the 30's by daybreak we could have a little snow mixing in, but with the ground wet, it will have a hard time sticking.  Most of this will be out by daybreak Sunday, but a few lingering showers may be possible.  Then High Pressure builds in for Monday... then another cold front.  The front just now pushing into North Dakota will swing down Tuesday.  We will not have a lot of moisture, but a few flurries are possible, with only a high around 32.  Then more sun Wednesday and Thursday.  Later in the week looks interesting.  A strong Low will move in from the south.  The track of the Low right now has us getting some sleet or freezing rain in Central Ohio later on Friday...then some light snow Friday night... then we warm up and get rain on Saturday.  Still a LONG way out to pinpoint timing and if the Low tracks east a little then we will stay colder for more snow... or west for more rain.  Anyway, that's how it looks as of 9PM Saturday night.  All models ARE agreeing on VERY cold air in about 8-12 days from now.  Have a good one!!!

Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Getting crazy on Christmas Eve

Leave it to Yolanda Harris for not keeping her hands to herself.  And of course Adam Aaro finds it VERY funny... But when you work on the holidays... things are bound to get a bit derailed...

So the storms have rolled through and there was a decent amount of damage near Lancaster.  The radar was showing a little rotation, along with the gusty winds.  The rotation appeared to be a little farther north of the damage location.  I checked with the National Weather Service in Wilmington to see if they plan on surveying the damage to see if it is a tornado or straight-line winds.  This is what they said: "Andrew, based on information we have now we do not expect a survey at this time, however we will check with the EMA during the day and see if there are any additional details that would warrant a damage survey." Here are a couple photos of the damage sent in from Wayne Schoenberger Jr.:
So the storms are gone now and it will be a chilly night with lows in the mid 30's.  We will see some light snow showers and flurries, and maybe some spotty sprinkles mixing in with a high of 40 for Christmas.  It all should be very light so little to no problems on the roads.  We warm back to near 50 for Friday and Saturday then some spotty rain showers for Saturday night and early Sunday.  Signing off for the night... Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! Many thanks to those serving, who can't be with family this year.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Monday, December 22, 2014

Update on Christmas forecast and snow

Get ready for a surge of warm air.  Some of the models are going to near 60 for Columbus for Christmas Eve.  The cold front will punch through midday and then our temperatures fall like a rock through the late afternoon and evening.
I know a lot of you were hoping for a White Christmas, but the temperatures will be too warm on Christmas Eve when most of the moisture is here.  I still think we will have flurries and snow showers, especially across Northern Ohio... but not much in the way of accumulation for Central Ohio on Christmas... BUT...
The Euro and CMC models have both been consistent with a lot of snow for Central Ohio this Sunday... The GFS is still not showing anything at all... so time will tell and we will keep a close eye on it...

Warmer Tuesday with rain showers early and then some spotty showers later.
Wednesday will be wet with rain showers.  Warm early then QUICKLY getting cold later.  Becoming windy as well later in the day.
Christmas will be windy & cold with a wintry mix early (before dawn) then flurries and light snow showers.
Friday we stay chilly with partly cloudy skies and flurries.
Saturday is where it starts to become a toss-up.  We could start seeing some snow working in, in the evening, or if we go the route of the American models then we will stay dry all weekend.  Be back with an update soon.  Thanks for checking in.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, December 21, 2014

White Christmas looking less likely, but off-white possible

I normally don't post the 7-day forecast on here, but with the holiday week ahead... and me being off the next two days I figured it would help paint the picture for Central Ohio.

Monday should be dry most of the day.  Rain will move in late in the evening and overnight... I have the twenty percent chance of rain for the far western portions of the viewing area.  Tuesday we will likely have rain showers in the morning then a break in the rain later in the day.  It will be a warm afternoon and then the rain moves back in Wednesday.  The cold front is slated to move through Central Ohio the afternoon of Christmas Eve.  So temperatures will plummet and winds will pick up.  Right now most of Christmas Eve evening will remain rain, but some snow may mix in on the back edge of the precipitation.  Based on the latest forecast information, it looks like maybe a dusting... if that... for Christmas morning.  Light snow showers may stick around through the day, along with the gusty winds.  We are still 3-4 days out, so please check back for changes... considering that the Low is still way out west of the Rockies.  Another weak system may bring a dusting by Saturday morning and then colder temps.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Back from vacation... snow by Christmas?

I had a fantastic time at Walt Disney World the last week.  The entire Michael family was there for the fun.  70's and sunny all week long... Hard to come back to frozen Ohio.

Sunday we will see more sun later in the day.  Monday looks fairly dry for Ohio as well... Maybe a rain shower later in the day.  Then by Tuesday rain rolls in and same for early Wednesday.  Our temps will be warm those days... likely in the 50's.  But then the temps fall like a rock starting midday Wednesday, Christmas Eve.  If the precipitation is still around when the temperatures fall into the 30's then a rain/snow mix is very likely. 
This is the latest GFS forecast model for 1PM on Christmas Eve... The cold air is pushing across the Indiana-Ohio border.  It is all about timing... if the cold air pushes in while the moisture is still around.  As of right now, I think we will see only rain Tuesday, and heavy rain at times late Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Then Wednesday afternoon we see some snow mixing in and some lingering light snow showers for early Thursday.  Still WAY too early to put a number on it.  If someone is tossing out how much snow, don't buy into it much... because the storm system is still out on the Pacific coast... a small adjustment in trajectory could throw this all off of alignment.  I think we could have a dusting or a tad more, but the ground will be wet from the rain... check back for another update tomorrow.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Monday, December 8, 2014

White Christmas???

Sure it is a long way out... but let's take a stab at what the models are showing for Christmas...  PLEASE take this with a grain of salt, but just tossing this out there.  The models go out 384 hours, which puts us at 1PM Christmas Eve...  The above image is the precip expected for 1PM the day before Christmas Eve.  It looks like a nice snow for Ohio.
The above image, here, is for 1PM Christmas Eve.  The system has kicked off to the East Coast and looks like a DOOZY of a storm for New England.  It looks like we may warm up to near freezing for this day or slightly above. 
But there is a cold pocket of air punching down in the Rockies.  Above is the height differences in the atmosphere (Meaning pressure and temperatures changes basically).  There is a big pocket of cold air out west ready to punch in for Christmas Day.  Before the cold blast... there would be a cold front... cold fronts bring precip... and if the timing is right, that could lead to some decent snow around Christmas.

Keep in mind... the atmosphere is like the ocean.  It is all water vapor and predicting the waves in the ocean is hard... Ever been standing in the waves and try predicting when that big one out there will arrive?  There are millions of variables in play, but just thought I would show you this.  Something to keep an eye on... Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Buckeyes move into first ever College Football Playoffs

It was a tad soggy early Saturday, but the rain did leave before the end of the Toys for Tots event at our station.  We filled two moving trucks with toys for kids.  It was so awesome to see such a great out-pour of support from the community.  
I also filled in on The Football Fever last night.  Even though the game was inside, we still did a fun little forecast. 
Dawn's niece and nephews stayed with us this weekend and I gave them a tour of the station after the show.  Then they went home to watch the game... and BOY!!!  What a game!  
I don't think anyone expected the Buckeyes to beat the Badgers by 59 points in a shut-out of a game.  Definitely a sign of a team that is ready to take the big stage.
I was super excited to see Ohio State made it into the first College Football Playoffs.  They will have to play just as good to contend with Alabama.  That Virginia Tech loss was months ago and as Urban said... this team is MUCH improved.  Sure I am nervous, but excited to be invited to the big dance. Game will be New Year's Day night... and luckily... I have the day off!
The wintry mix out in the Plains is headed this way.  It will not arrive until Monday night and Tuesday, but as you see, it is pretty scattered and light.  High thin clouds building tonight and cold.  Partly to mostly cloudy Monday and a little more mild, with highs in the mid-upper 40`s.  Light rain showers arrive Monday evening.  As temperatures fall Monday night we could see some snow mixing in across Central Ohio.  The scattered, light wintry mix will continue on and off Tuesday.  A few flurries will linger Wednesday as the colder air pushes in for the second half of the week.  A couple of weak systems will be near Ohio by the end of the week, but current forecast models are keeping it all just outside of Ohio.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Get ready to get wet!!!

Filling in on the weekday night side and of course always having fun and getting silly.
I did some old school geometry earlier this week to plan out how many strands of Christmas lights I would need.
And here it is... done.  I didn't out any lights on the second story roof for safety reasons... My ladder could reach most of it, but I was like.... ehhhh, naw.  I think the lights in the windows help.
Today we had a mess for the afternoon and evening commute.  Rain showers pushed in and our temperatures were right on the threshold of snow showers mixing in as well.  Some of the area saw a quick coating, but it will not last long.  Overnight our temperatures will warm just a tad and any precipitation should be rain for the majority of Central Ohio.  Friday rain showers are likely.  The heaviest rain will be Friday night into early Saturday morning.  Most of the rain will be moving out by midday Saturday.  Temperatures will continue to warm Friday and peak around midnight Friday then fall through the day Saturday.  Sunday will be chilly, but dry.  Right now the models are disagreeing a little for Monday night.  Two out of the three models have some light rain Monday night, but the third has us completely dry.  Either way, it will be a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of rain for Friday and Saturday... with many areas seeing at least an inch of rain.  Stay dry and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Turkey is gone, so is the snow...

I was lucky enough to be invited to a Blue Jackets game with my good buddy Alex this week.  CBJ was down 1-0 with only nine seconds into the game... yikes...  Still a very fun time and we cheered our hearts out.
I spent Thanksgiving with my wife's side of the family.  We had a GREAT time.  There was a band of lake effect snow so heavy that you couldn't see more than a hundred feet.  It took about twenty minutes for a couples inches of snow.  So shopping (after midnight) was a bit dicey on the roads.  I did get some GREAT deals on new jeans and boots... What else do ya need to get the day done right?
The Michigan game means one thing... the meteorology buddies get together.  This is a picture of SOME of us today.  A lot of us still get together on a regular basis for dinner, but it is always great to get the gang together to root on Ohio State.
I also stopped by The Football Fever live shot.  These guys make it look easy, but there is a LOT of moving parts to put on that amazing show.
I got scared when J.T. Barrett went out of today's game with the broken ankle.  Ron Swanson said do not worry and I put on a smile.  Glad we beat TTUN, but not sure what to think of where the offense will go now.  I have faith in Cardale Jones, but I hope the team will mesh fast before the Big Ten championship next week. 
There is one HECK of a cold front on the way... There is a drastic drop in temps in the Plains, but for Ohio it will be somewhat moderated.  Sunday will be a windy, mild day with highs back near 60, but isolated rain showers, especially later in the day.  Temperatures fall quickly Sunday night and Monday with the cold front.  Expect some isolated rain showers early and then some flurries later in the day. We see a brief dry spell, but more isolated rain showers return by Tuesday evening and then on and off the rest of the week.  Staying cool as well.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Update on Thanksgiving snow

I have always loved doing school talks, but today I had the honor of talking to the meteorology class at Mount Vernon High School.  I had no idea that there were dedicated classes for weather... That's AWESOME!!!  I was able to go into more in-depth topics and they were able to understand what I was talking about when talking about the jet streams, low pressure systems, and so much more. 
 Any travel plans for Ohio should be perfect for the Thanksgiving holiday.  But we are keeping an eye on a system dropping a lot of snow and ice across the east coast.  If you are traveling there then make sure to check the forecast for the area you plan on traveling to... but Ohio should be just fine.  We will have some rain by Sunday into early next week.
Here is a look at the forecasted snow for the next few days.  Again, luckily, Ohio will dodge this holiday headache.  Hope you have a fantastic holiday with your friends and family.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, November 22, 2014

First snow done... now... warming up

Here is a map of the reported snowfall totals for midday Monday.  Pretty much right on the money.
But since I was at the station until 2AM, then back in before 10AM... I was a bit loopy and was a tad silly.
Once the sun came out... MAN!  It was a VERY pretty snow.  With little to no wind it settled on all the trees. 
And then it got cold.  Buckeye got a haircut last Saturday so he has been happily sporting the sweater when going outside.
I spent a little over two hours filling the tires with air at a GetGo Tuesday.  Wind chills were in the single digits... and again... I was a tad silly from going numb in those temps.
I was a guest speaker at Ohio State on Thursday to talk about careers in weather and Miss Ohio was there!
Friday consisted of a lot of plumbing.  First was the master shower.  There was a tiny leak and that was fixed...
Then I replaced the dishwasher with a newer model.  I love days off like that... very busy, but I can accomplish so much!
This morning was a MESS on the roads.  We had freezing rain on and off for a few hours and the roads were shut down all over the place.  One viewer messaged me and said he saw over 50, yes 50, accidents on his drive into work this morning.  Freezing ice is impossible to see, and a nightmare on the roads.  I can tell you who will be VERY busy in the coming weeks... Auto body shops!

Enjoy the warmth the next couple of days.  A few spotty rain showers tonight and Sunday, but generally dry for most areas until the afternoon.  Steady winds out of the south will pump in warm air as well.  Rain showers arrive in the late afternoon Sunday and stick around overnight through early Monday.  We stay in the 50's for Sunday and Monday, but the cold front arrives in the afternoon Monday and our temperatures fall quickly.  Back into the 30's for highs for the rest of the workweek.  I am keeping an eye on another cold front for late Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Thursday.  It could bring another shot of light rain or snow... right now the temperatures look to be more in line with snow.  I will have more as it gets closer.  It currently looks fairly light, but still enough to cause some slippery spots.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Final snowfall forecast before the snow arrives

 LIVE CHAT tonight at 8:30, here:
Snow bands in IL into IL and NW OH.  Rain bands through KY into WV.  We have spotty light precip between the two and the models have them colliding between 6-8PM with rain/snow line right over the metro.  Should be all snow by 10PM-12AM for the metro then the rain light slowly retreats to SE Ohio. 
This is the RPM model and it was MONEY last winter.  I wanted to attached it so that way we can check it later to verify it.
I am calling for 2-4" by daybreak along the I-70 corridor (thirty minute drive east or west of it) then another inch by midday.  (Drastically lower totals for far SE Ohio)  If I see any alterations in the forecast, it would be to nudge the heavier snowbands a tad more to the East.  That will be more of a now-cast this evening when the precip arrives and we check the ground temperatures, but for now the image above is what I am going with for the newscasts.

Either way, it will be a mess on the roads for many Monday morning.  The first snow always is a mess.  Stay safe and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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