Balm By Buck

Balm By Buck
Style your hair and moisturize your skin with natural products, not chemicals. Click the image to get to my Etsy shop.

Friday, December 31, 2010

What's Shaking?

Well after a almost full "normal" shift of doing the morning weather, things quickly were shaken up around 8AM, well actually 7:55AM.  Phone calls were flooding the newsroom with people asking if there was an earthquake, and sure enough there was a 3.8 magnitude quake just outside of Kokomo, IN, and we were able to feel the shaking here in the Miami Valley.  Columbus, Kentucky, Michigan, and even Wisconsin also felt the tremor.  So, I finished up the morning show, and took off for Kokomo to hear from the people near the epicenter.  While there was no major damage, everyone was telling their stories about what they felt or what they experienced.  Everyone also said they heard a loud boom, so maybe there was an actual "pop" in the earth... Let's just hope it never happens again, but if it does, let's hope they remain that weak.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Floral meeting

Well I have mentioned my upcoming wedding from time to time...well yesterday I did some more planning.....alone.  Dawn has been at home for the holiday's in Cleveland.  She came down with a nasty flu about 36 hours ago and she said that she didn't feel well enough to drive to Columbus to meet with the florist. Sooooo, I said I would meet with the florist alone.  I have been highly involved with the wedding planning so it is not a surprise, but I think the florist probably thought otherwise and I was a "typical groom."

I knew going into the meeting that our centerpieces were not going to be floral.  On top of that, the venue for the reception and wedding are already very decorative, so we really are not in need of much floral at either location.  So anyway, I go into the meeting and knew what Dawn wanted for the bouquets, that was first on the agenda and I think it was hit on the head pretty well.  Then when it came to the other stuff, I could she was disappointed to find there would be little more than the bouquets and boutonnieres.  I know they want to sell as many flowers as possible, but our centerpieces don't need any flowers at all....this from Dawn's mothers and Dawn herself.... although I doubt the florist believed that.  Anyway, it went well and I will wait to hear from her.

A quick look at the forecast: rain moving out of the area, but we have stayed above freezing overnight, so freezing rain has not been a problem.  We will steadily warm til the end the year, Friday night, and then rain with a cold front will push through and put our highs back in the mid 30s for next week..... BUT, the good news...we will top out in the low 50s Friday, so enjoy it!  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Finally thawing out

Well today will be the first day in two and a half weeks that we will get above freezing with a high of 34.  This month has been about nine degrees below normal so far, but we will finish off the week with the warmest temps of the entire month with a high of 49 on Friday.  I am very excited.  Even though I have already winterized my mopeds, I may have to break one of them out for a ride around the neighborhood.  Rain arriving later tonight and into tomorrow morning and we could see a few light spotty showers Friday during the day, but the best chance for rain will be Friday night.  So if you are heading out for any plans to ring in the new year, Friday night, take the umbrella.  It will be wet, but at least it will be mild.  Temps falling through the day Saturday will drop highs back in the mid 30's for Sunday and into next week.

Well all my football fantasy leagues are over with.  I did make the playoffs in each of my leagues, but didn't win any of the leagues. I did finish second in the Darke Journal league, and the rest of the leagues I finished 4th, 5th, and 6th despite having one of the highest scoring teams in the leagues.  My key players came down with injuries and that always will catch you off guard.  It's a shame you can't sub in another player when they get injured mid-game.  The upside to it all is that I made the playoffs in each league....I may cut back next year, managing four teams was a lot of players to remember to root for on Sundays.  Well, back to the morning show!  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

1 AM Workout

Yup, 1 AM workout...call me crazy.  After only getting about 90 minutes of sleep between the Sunday night and Monday morning shift I slept A LOT on Monday.  I woke up for a few hours and went back to bed to wake up at 1 AM to get a quick workout before coming to work this morning.  Surprisingly, but kinda expected, I am much more awake this morning.  With Dawn out of town I can wake up and be noisy.....maybe I should sound proof the bedroom for when we comes home so she can't hear me working out.

About the workout.... Have you heard of P90X?  I did Plyometrics today, which is a lot of jumping and squatting, and man.... it's intense.  You would think that it wouldn't be hard, but it is and once you get used to what you are doing, then you have to add an extra hop into the mix.....and I was already barely keeping up.... Getting back into shape is not easy.

I am excited for warmer temperatures for the end of the week.  I may just have to break out the moped to ride around a bit.  We will see a little rain as well, but dry for the majority of the time.  Our best chance for rain will be Friday night and early Saturday morning. Temps will fall through the day on Saturday.....bringing back the cold air....so enjoy the 40's while they are here.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Ready, Set, Go, Go

Well the winds have picked up and it looks like blowing and drifting snow will be a problem overnight into Monday morning, so be careful on the roads.  Light flurries will continue, but not accumulating to much, the blowing and drifting snow will be the main problems.  Cold temps the next few days then warming up later in the week with rain, but at least it will get into the mid 40's.

The "go, go" part in the title is for my double shift.  I am working tonight and working again tomorrow morning.  Mike Terwilleger took the week off to be with his family so I will have to switch over to mornings for the entire week to continue my ten day streak.... good thing I took off a few days last week I guess.  The good side about working mornings this week is that New Years Eve is Friday night so I will be switching back over tonights and will have the opportunity to actually celebrate the holiday, I normally get off around 11:40PM.  The last I heard, a few college friends and some of Dawn's family are getting together in Columbus, but we will have to figure out what we are going to do with Buckeye if we head to Columbus.  Anyway I will be on mornings updating the blog, so if there are misspellings or grammatical errors, I apologize now.  Stay warm, drive safe, and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Light Snow Continues....for now

Well I hope you all enjoyed the day today with friends and family.  Most of the Miami Valley woke up to a light dusting on top of our previous snow.  Just enough to cover the dirty snow on the sides of the road, so that is a huge plus.  I spent the day with family and my siblings were up to their normal tricks.  My brother Clark had me in a family gift exchange for my mother's side of the family, but I will get to him in a second.  I was told by my parents and by my grandparents it was going to begin at 3PM at my Uncle's house.  Well our family drove 105 minutes down to their house just outside of Cincinnati, it turns out dinner wasn't supposed to be served until 6PM, and I was planning on leaving around 4PM (to get to work on time tonight) thinking I could eat, do quick gift exchange then leave....nope, I sat there watching the Star Wars marathon with my father, and my four other siblings while my mother chatted in the kitchen with the my grandparents and my aunt.  My mother has 6 other siblings and only one showed up, just as I was walking out the door.  Anyway, I was leaving and my brother said, "Oh yea, I had you, here you go."  It was a JCPenney gift card with $250 written as the value with the 0 crossed off.... so only $25.  As my best man, I hope these shenanigans will stop soon, before the wedding in 7 months.

Anyway, I did enjoy the time I did get to spend with the family I did get to see.  The light snow will continue overnight and into tomorrow, although accumulations will be about half an inch or less.  Temperatures will fall into the teens for Monday and Tuesday morning.....then comes the change.  We have stayed close to or below freezing for almost two weeks now, but that will soon change.  By next weekend, we will be dealing with rain and high temperatures in the mid and upper 40's....I dare say 50's may be within reach.  With temperatures getting that warm, we could deal with a few storms possibly, so stay tuned, but I will let you get back to enjoying your time off, hopefully.  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, December 24, 2010

Merry Christmas Eve!!!

Well finally the models have agreed, and been agreeing since yesterday.  So the good news is that the forecast is holding strong and still looking at about 1-2" with a few locations seeing slightly more in spots, mainly south and west of Dayton.  The locations up to the north and east will be closer to the 1" mark.  The snow should arrive tonight around dusk for part of the area and go through the overnight hours helping to cushion the sleigh tonight.  The majority of the snow will have fallen by sunrise tomorrow, but on and off snow showers will remain as we go through the day.  I am off to head back to the family farm for the next day or so....meaning no internet, so had to updated this before heading out the door.  Travel safely, enjoy time with friends and family, and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Hope Returns

While yesterday was filled with depressing model runs with our potential for Christmas fresh snow heading to the Deep South, the last 12 hours has shown hope.  We would still only be looking at a light accumulation, 1-2" of snow, maybe 3" in a few spots, at least it is something.  With La Nina this year, I think the models are having a hard time trying to decide if the storms are going to take the path of least resistance or try to find warmer, moist paths to sustain themselves longer.  Regardless, I wanted to post a quick update and will do so again either tonight or early in the morning tomorrow, Christmas Eve, before heading back to the family farm. The snow still will not start until the afternoon/evening on Christmas Eve if the models hold true, so stay tuned for another update.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Taking a Southern Route

Apparently this storm decided to give the deep south a White Christmas instead.  The last 12 hours of forecast models all have the low tracking through the Southern states and here in the Ohio Valley seeing less than an inch of snow.... So big changes...  I am not surprised by this, with the models not being very consistent with this storm and agreeing on where it would track.  Nothing is set in stone, so we could see this change course again. 

Here is the up-side to all of this...we already have an inch of snow on the ground, so we are guaranteed a White Christmas.  However, it is snow that is from last Thursday, so over a week old by Christmas morning and starting to turn nasty colors along the sides of the road.... not that fresh stuff.  I will keep this updated with the latest storm tracks because I believe this storm isn`t set on its course just yet.  Until later, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

White Christmas Storm Update

Alright, well this "storm" is looking a little weak...so for anyone hearing a foot of snow.... keep dreaming with those sugarplums.  This storm is not a clipper that swings in from the north, or a high moisture system from the south.  This storm will be combining the cold air from the north and moisture to the south.  As of right now I am thinking 2-4" between Christmas Eve afternoon into Christmas morning....and that may be overestimating it.  I will jump back on here tomorrow, Wednesday, and give you another update, but this really is only looking like a few inches.  Regardless winds will pick up on Christmas causing blowing snow, so even an inch will cause problems, especially in the rural areas.  Well I have some vacationing to get back to.... See ya tomorrow and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Monday, December 20, 2010

My two cents on forecast models.

So multiple times this winter I have talked about our chances for a significant chance for snow storms.  I want to give you an inside "look" at what is happening.

There are a handful of forecast models, but I want to focus on three: GFS, NAM, and  RUC.  The RUC is a very short-term model that goes out 18 hours, and by the time the data initializes it only goes out about 15 hours....throw that out the window.  We are now down the the NAM and GFS....

NAM model goes out 84 hours and is considered a "short term" model.  The GFS goes out 16 days and is a traditional long term model.  Both computer generated forecast models are generated by thousands of equations based on current observation data at our surface weather sensors and weather balloons to try to get a 3-D image of the atmosphere.

Breakdown for this La Nina year (not like many other years):
Ok so you know they are computer and equation based models, but I am not going to give a little personality to the forecast models.....personification for any English teachers I had....

The GFS is a child waiting for a snow day..... The NAM is a superintendent hoping for better weather in order to not "use up" a snow day.

Since the NAM only goes out about 4.5 days it is hard to get a gauge on the long term storms.  However, the GFS has complete freedom to do whatever it wants...  for the last three days it has been forecasting at least 10" for Christmas morning, on top of what we already have seen..... It just wants to dump as much moisture as possible on us.....  However, when we start getting close to the 4.5 days, the GFS settles down a bit and starts backing off a bit.  Right now it has us seeing about 3-5" on Chirstmas and some areas seeing a little more..... but still a HUGE cut back from the 10".  I think the school kid got in eye site of the superintendent and started taming back a little bit.  Anyway, while the NAM is away, the GFS is out to play.... and it plays really, really, REALLY hard.  It isn't until the NAM shows up, that the GFS settles down and plays properly.

(To anyone who reads regularly, or forecasts regularly, I hope you enjoyed that, cuz I know the NAM or GFS didnt.... what's true is funny)

Your Buck-cast: (Mind you, I am on vacation, but can't stop forecasting)
We will see up to 1" of snow overnight turning to a wintry mix in the morning, turning to rain showers for the  southern Miami Valley for the afternoon, back to a wintry mix, back to snow and accumulations less than 1".  We will see a break until Friday midday.  The snow will start and as long as we stay below freezing we could see about 3-5" if not a little more in some areas.   Winds will increase causing a lot of blowing and drifting snow.  This will be a big problem on Christmas day......so put up wind guards on your roof now for Santa....

I will be back tomorrow, and hopefully a little happier with the forecast models, stay warm, drive safe, and most importantly: have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Wintry Mix still on tap

The latest on the storm shows the Southern half of the Miami Valley will be seeing the majority of the wintry mix and even a little rain is possible in the afternoon on Tuesday.  The Northern part of the area may see all snow, mainly to the far, far north.  Obviously the more wintry mix you see, then your snowfall totals will be cut back drastically.  The entire storm looks to arrive Monday around midnight and then turn over to that wintry mix across parts of the area in the mid morning.  Before the mid morning I think we could see around half an inch or so.  The areas that see all snow could see around 1-2," but if you get that wintry mix you can forget about seeing that much.  All of the moisture should be out of here by Wednesday morning with a dusting through Tuesday night.

We will see a little break in the action for the middle of the week, but more snow arriving on Friday, Christmas Eve, and lingering into and through Christmas Day.  Winds will pick up as well and we could be dealing with a lot of blowing and drifting snow as well, but we still have some time before we start talking about snowfall totals.  Temperatures look to be near the freezing mark as well, so if we warm up at all we could be dealing with another wintry mix.

I have taken off Monday-Friday for the upcoming week for the holidays, but I will jump on here and keep ya updated on the weather.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, December 17, 2010

Weekend Shopping Warriors

Well here it is...the last weekend before Christmas. Shoppers will be extra stressed knowing that this may be their last chance to get their shopping done before they need to start the wrapping process. The weather this weekend will be cold, but other than that not too bad. The winds will be fairly light and the roads will be dry so at least that will be working in their favor. Imagine dumping 4-6" of snow on a weekend like this.... not where I would want to be.

Anyhow, cold, but nice this weekend and the next round of winter weather will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. Still looking like we will see another decent accumulation. Nothing paralyzing, but decent nonetheless. Another system will follow behind that arriving on Christmas Eve, so traveling on that day will be dicey especially with temperatures around the freezing mark...could see a wintry mix, but that is still seven days out and a lot is still to be determined. Enjoy the weekend and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Up against the wall

Well I have been up since 1:30AM.  Buckeye decided to want to go outside thirty minutes before my alarm to get up for the morning show and there was no going back to sleep at that point.  Had the live hits all morning in the snow, which when you are one-man-banding, it wears you out.... And now I am closing in on the fifteenth hour of work today, and still have two left.  I did get a small break in the afternoon, but not enough to nap or rest up....so I am almost hitting a brick wall, but I am hoping a cup, or two, of Joe will do the trick.

Next week`s storm coming on Monday night into Tuesday is still holding together and the tracks of the Low send it right over the Ohio Valley.  The long term models have been fairly consistent and we could be in for the most potent snowfall of the season.  Also, the cold weather is sticking around for at least a week, so a White Christmas is nearly a guarantee.  I am taking a vacation from Monday-Friday to spend time with friends and family and finish any last minute shopping...  I will update the blog though to keep ya posted.  Time for the news, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Thawing Out

Well I was out doing live shots all morning in the snow and let me tell you, I am freezing and wet.  I was running it all myself so that caused a few other "inconveniences."  I was at the Marketplace Express just off of 741 in Springboro.  Well they were more than generous in letting me set up my live shot there and also offering me coffee.... well I drank too much so in between live shots I had to run inside to use the facilities...  I put the camera in the live truck because if that is stolen, my job would have a vacancy....  Anyway, I come back outside, the tripod is freezing and now the camera is warm... the tripod`s locking mechanism is frozen, so all I can do is try to warm it up with my hands and breath because if that camera falls my job would have a vacancy....  So I take off my gloves, set the camera on the ground and work on the tripod, you know how in Dumb and Dumber how his tongue gets stuck to the pole...well my hand did that too the tripod, I had to breathe hot air and pull it off... I finally get it fixed and warmed up.... forgetting there was three inches of fresh snow on the ground, where I just put the camera, I try putting it back on the tripod.  Nope, the snow re-freezes the locking mechanism and jams snow where it doesn`t belong.... I fix what I did wrong the time before, continuing to use my hands on the sub-freezing metal and finally get the camera up and ready to go for the live hit.... regardless, the next live hit I take off my glove and explain what I did and show my pink hand to prove it.... long morning....

I got home and shoveled the five inches of snow and part of the road so the mailman can get to our box, and now I am taking a little break before heading back in to fill in for Jeff Booth, who has the day off.  Another, possibly more potent, system will roll in here late Monday and Tuesday, I will jump back on here this evening from the weather center and give an update on that, until then, stay inside and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Upping the snowfall totals a little


In the last entry I talked about how these clipper systems pull north when the time gets closer, and sure enough the models are all showing this as well, so I a tailoring the numbers slightly.  I was calling for around 2" to the south, and still calling for the 2", but the the extreme south, 2-4".  The central part of the area, along I-70, I was calling for 1", now calling for 1-3".  The snowfall totals will quickly fall off the farther north and east you go, so counties like Auglaize, Logan, and Champaign may only see a dusting up to 1".  The worst part of this storm will be its timing, it will be dropping the snow right before people leave for work or school, it will be interesting to see how well the road crews can keep up with the quick clip of this system.

Speaking of snow and school, did you guys hear Kasich is increasing the calamity days for schools back to 5 days?  What are your thoughts on that?  Personally I think it is necessary, I grew up in Darke County where the weather can get horrible.  Safety first.  Just because there are the five days there does not mean they are all always used.  Shoot me your thoughts on it, might get a good discussion going.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Thursday's Snowfall Predictions

Well this system has been a lot more consistent compared to our last little rascally storm.  This will be a clipper meaning it will come down from Canada, clip us, then get out of dodge pretty quickly.  These systems often come down this time or year, when we are normally a little warmer, and they tend to pull northward about 30-50 miles compared to what the models originally show.  I think with this system, it will still pull north a little more than the models predict, but not as much since we are already so cold. Speaking of which, we only hit 20 for the high today.  The normal high is 39 and the normal LOW is 25...  Below average temps???  I would say so.  Anyways the upcoming snow....  The heaviest snow/ice will be in Kentucky.  The Southern part of the Miami Valley will see around 2", maybe slightly more to the extreme south. The middle of the area, along I-70, will see around 1" and the north will only see a dusting or up to 1".  The snow should start around midnight and get out of here during the mid morning hours on Thursday. We will stay cold the rest of the week and another system will roll in around Monday/Tuesday.  I will be back on tomorrow, Wednesday, to update the blog, just in case the system shifts course a little bit and the snowfall numbers need adjusted, until then stay warm and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

In The Weather Center Tonight

So Jeff Booth contracted that "strep throat thingy" from his wife.....so my "Saturday" is in the weather center.  It is a good thing I love doing the weather so much.  Still keeping an eye on the next system coming down late Wednesday into early Thursday.  Looking at light accumulations across the area, the further south you live, the more snow you will see because the current track of the heart of the system is through mid and northern Kentucky.  I will be back on here later this evening with forecasted snowfall numbers.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Monday, December 13, 2010

White Christmas prediction....

Well Christmas is just under 2 weeks away, 12 days.  Everyone loves to see a White Christmas, well 99.5632% of people do.  As of this point, I think it is highly likely we will see a White Christmas.  The chances for us getting above freezing are fairly slim after looking at the last few days of data.  We stand to see about three more "decent" shots of snow, meaning there should be easily more than an inch of snow on the ground by then, which is the technical definition.  We even could see a little snow either on Christmas or the days bordering it.  Again, still a long way out there, but I honestly think this year is setting up to be a.....White Christmas. 

The system coming in late Wednesday night into Thursday is still just to our south in KY according to the models, but it has shifted a little northward.  Cincinnati could see several inches, will have to wait and see how the track of the system changes in the coming days.  Either way, the snow we already have and the sunshine today had me squinting behind the wheel, so don't forget the sunglasses and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Out in the elements

Well I have been up most of the night, out reporting on the changes.  Here and here are a few of the reports.  This afternoon will have scattered snow showers and they will continue into the overnight hours as winds pick up and start blowing a lot of snow.  I think another 1-3" are possible through the next 24 hours, on top of what we already received. Areas to the far northwest could see even more with lake effect snow setting up overnight.  Be careful out there Monday.  I will have another update later this evening on any changes and also chances for another round of winter weather in the middle/end of the week.  Go Browns and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

The Storm is Packing Up

We are now on the tail end of things and despite a dry break in the middle of the day for much of us... the end of this storm had its hardest punch.  I was out and about all morning and the roads were still fairly decent, but tonight I drove home for dinner real "quick".... well, let's just say they were anything but decent.  The early evening hours have had a pretty good clip of snow falling across the entire area and the roads that I took home were not cleared at all, about an inch and a half more than when I got to work.  Several counties have already issued snow emergencies and a plethora of school delays are already filtering into the newsroom.  The winds will continue to pick up overnight and persist into Monday, about 20-30 mph with higher gusts.  This also could set up a few bands of lake effect snow.  I expect about 1-3" more snow overnight, however blowing snow make it appear that not a lot fell.  The temperatures have fallen into the teens so it is a very fluffy and dry snow, meaning it will blow and drift easily.

We will see a break in the middle of the week, but another system looks to swing down from Canada on Thursday.  The latest models have shown it scooting by just to our south, but if its course changes, we may be in for a few more inches of snow.  I will keep this updated through the week, so travel safely, and as always, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Saturday Night Update

Man, imagine if all this rain was snow! We would already have about 6 inches in some spots!!!  The tail end of the rain is moving into central Indiana currently, 9:50 PM.  The below freezing temps are just behind that.  There is about a 300 mile dry slot of no snow, but new models are showing the area rebuilding with snow...  The back side of the low is currently dropping a lot of snow in Iowa and Missouri, and that is what is headed for us.  This will arrive midday tomorrow, Sunday, and we could see an additional 2-4", but measuring it will be difficult with the winds starting to pick up later tomorrow night between 20-30 mph with gusts close to 40 mph.  This is the reason the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday into midday Monday.  Roads will be very dicey in the country and open areas so use caution.  At this point, I think it is likely that a lot of kids may get to sleep in on Monday.  I will be doing reports overnight into tomorrow morning with video updates on our homepage of the website.  So when you wake up in the morning you will have a good idea of what to expect.  Well, time for the news, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday morning update

Still waiting for the system to give us its dose of snow!  Models are still showing about 2-4" across the entire Miami Valley with a few locations maybe slightly higher.  We will start out as rain around dusk, switch over to wintry mix around the middle of the night, then over to snow before sunrise.  I will be posting a few "Web Exclusive" videos through the night and early morning hours tomorrow to keep you updated on the storm and any changes to the forecast.  So if you are up late tonight, or early tomorrow, make sure to check them out on our main page on Daytonsnewssource.com.  With these systems, if the cold air punches in early enough we could see the snowfall totals climb a little.  Remember to drive safely tomorrow because with the icy roads and snow on top, along with the strong winds coming Sunday night, the roads will go from dry to treacherous in less than 24 hours.  Just wanted to give ya and update, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, December 10, 2010

Forecasted Snowfall Totals

Well here we go, we are entering the 48 hour window.  We will start out as rain later Saturday and turn to a wintry mix Saturday night.  Timing is a little hard right now for the switch-over, but a ballpark would be around midnight according to the latest models.  When we see the wintry mix we could have ice stick to the roads, so be EXTREMELY cautious Sunday.  It may just look like snow on the road, but there will be spots of ice underneath, and THAT is the worse case scenario for driving.

The wintry mix will not be long-lived, and it will quickly turn to snow.  By the afternoon on Sunday I think we are only left with a few light snow showers as most of the snow will have already fallen, but the winds will begin to pick up and that will cause some major problems as well with blowing and drifting snow.  The temperatures will drop first in the north, so they stand to see the most snow.  The far south will see slightly less.  Here is my thoughts on the breakdown.  South of I-70, I think that 1-3" are possible, the closer you live to the Ohio River the closer you can expect 1-2".  North of I-70, I think most locations could see up to around 2-4".  A few locations may see slightly more to the extreme north and places with higher elevation, such as Bellefontaine, but that may still be hard-pressed with the rain soaked surface and with temperatures getting up to 40 or so on Saturday.

These totals may be tweaked over the next 24-36 hours, but seem to be consistent with the last day's worth of models.  It will be hard to get a measurement on the snow because of the wind, so keep that in mind.  Winds will pick up through the day and be strong all the way through Monday morning, which may cause problems with schools.  Anyway, just wanted to keep ya posted, and expect another update soon.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Quick Update

Since I am no longer anchoring the morning news, sad face, I am back on the night side as a photographer.  I managed to take a quick look at the most recent tracks of the storm, still looking northerly, but cold air will punch in strong Sunday morning and switch to wintry mix over to accumulating snow along with strong winds.  I will update this tomorrow, Friday, with projected snowfall estimates.  Still a little early, just want to confirm that the main area of Low Pressure is going to scoot by to our north, remember, it was just yesterday it was showing a track about 500 miles south of its current track...(starting is Arkansas, rather than northern Iowa)  Anyway, expect my forecast snowfall totals sometime Friday.  Gotta run, thanks, and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

More Rain.....Less Snow

Well 24 hours later and now we are seeing things change, quite a bit.  I attached a picture of yesterdays models, which are faded, and the most recent models on top and much brighter.  If you are color blind, I hope you still can get the idea. So here is how it all breaks down, the ONLY model that still has a lot of snow for us is the 18z, which is 18 hours old right now, so you can throw that out the window for the most part.  All the models yesterday were showing the Low originating near the AK/MO Mississippi River intersection and riding up the Ohio River.  Well now that we are getting closer, the models still show a weak area of Low Pressure there, but the dominate Low now originating near the hump in Iowa along the Mississippi....MUCH more northern.  THIS is the reason why snowfall forecasts should not be issued this early... It only took 24 hours and we are going to see much less snow if we stay with the more northerly tracks.  They all track near or north of Chicago and through Southern Michigan.  This means we could see light rain starting later Saturday, Saturday night, and maybe not switching over to Rain/Snow until early Sunday.  I would say at this point we are only looking at a few inches of snow.  The farther north you live, the more snow, the farther south, the less.  We will still need to wait and see, but no numbers for now.  Sunday will still be bad on the roads, as the snow starts to fall and the Low moves east, the winds will pick up and get VERY strong, so any snow will be blowing all around and causing problems.  It only takes an inch or two if the winds are strong enough to really start to see drifting/blowing snow problems.

If you really wanted a lot of snow, there is still hope the system will shift south, but hope for that is fading as we get closer to Saturday.  See ya back on here shortly with another update.

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

PS.  Our weak clipper on Friday will bring about a dusting to an inch to the north, and even less to the south.... Meant to mention that, but got too focused on the big changes for the weekend.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Winterized the house.

After having the furnace run all night, or so it seemed, Monday night, Dawn and I decided we needed to take action.  We did the shrink wrap window sealer on five of the windows, and sure enough, we already noticed a difference in less than a few hours.  The furnace still ran last night, but this morning there was about a 3 hour stretch of it not running.  Now granted I opened the blinds and let in the sunshine, but still, any improvement is awesome.

I attached a graphic I made to show the track of the upcoming storm on Sunday.  The models trend to go eastward over time for the most part.  We are starting to enter the threshold of the short term models, so pinpointing the exact track will become a little easier.  As you can see right now there are a wide array of tracks of the storm.  Just to let you know, 0z is 7PM, 6z is 1AM, 12z is 7AM, and 18z is 1PM.  Other than two of the models, they all agree the low will travel close to Louisville, KY, but where it moves from there will be crucial. North means more rain for us, but more east means snow.  We are on the line for this one, and every 24 hours we will be closer to nailing down snowfall forecasts.  Any forecast of how much snow we would get right now would be a guesstimate, and I am a forecaster, not a wish-caster.  Personally, I would love to see more snow than rain, but in all honesty, I could go for 70 and sunny, ehh?  Haha, until tomorrow, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Our First Winter “STORM” is brewing

Well I have been keeping an eye on the situation, as always, and things are slowly coming together.  The first wave of light snow will still come early Friday morning.  Accumulations look light with less than an inch for much of the area with a few locations seeing slightly more.  That will move through and leave us around the freezing mark for highs, meaning we could see some of the snow melt around the area.  Saturday night we will see a rain/snow mix that will turn to all snow Sunday morning.  The track of the system puts us right on the bulls-eye for the rain/snow line.  If the system tracks a little to the east, we will see cooler air and more snow, but if it shifts a little to the west and we are in the warmer air longer, more rain and less snow.  I am fairly confident we will see several inches of snow on the backside of the system during the day on Sunday, but as far as how much, it is still too far out into the future to pinpoint a number just yet.  This system will swing in from the south and ride north and on the backside there will be plenty of moisture, unlike the previous system last Saturday and our clipper swinging down this coming Friday.  Just wanted to pop on and keep ya updated.  I am feeling a little better, by the way. I am still not 100%, but getting there.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Monday, December 6, 2010

Blogging from Bed

Still feeling under the weather today... I am trying to get well as fast as possible, but still a work in progress.  The models are showing some consistency for the coming days. The first system that is coming through Friday will be very weak, and basically bring little to no accumulation of snow.  We will see a brief break before the strong system arrives late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  The models have had agreement that it will be potent, but not on the temperature.  Some of the models have shown it warm enough for all rain, others show a strong dose of snow.  Time will tell how the system will track, which will determine whether we will be wet.....or white.  I will keep ya updated, but as for now I am heading to bed and trying to rest up.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Oh Snow, Oh Snow, Where did you go?

Well as everyone in the Miami Valley knows, we got our first accumulating snow of the season yesterday.  While we had about 1"-3" across the area, today not so much.  We had about three inches at our house and when I woke up this morning and looked out, it was not the solid snow blanket that it was last night.  Instead there were tiny patches of grass.  This was also the case as I drove into work today.  The temperature only got up to 28 today so there was no melting due to daytime "heating."  So what is it?!?!  The ground is still warm and slightly above freezing.  The most well-rooted plants then pulled some of the warmth from underground and tried escaping to and through the surface.  If you noticed, the longest blades of grass were the ones in the middle of the small melted patches.  If you are a fan of the snow then don't worry.  The cold temps over the next few days along with the snow acting like ice cubes in a cooler will only cool the ground off more....making the next accumulation of snow stick, until temperatures warm up.

Well, it has happened, I haven't gotten a cold or had the flu in years, but it has finally happened.   Well right now I feel like I am swallowing with tortilla chips stuck in my throat.  I did drink about 7 cups of tea today and it has helped greatly.  I also have been trying to fight this off as soon as possible....man I hate getting sick.  I have made sure to disinfect everything I touch so I don't spread it.... no one likes to be the person who gets others sick.  My best guess is that I must have picked up something while I was out shopping the last few days, oh well. 

Still looking at a light dusting or so for the Northern counties for the start of the week with light lake effect snow.  Some of the back roads will continue to see the blowing snow across the north as they could see up to an additional inch through Sunday night into the day on Monday.  Remaining cold until the end of the week, when we may pop above freezing a couple of days as two more rounds of winter weather rolls into the Valley.  Right now both systems look to be right on the rain/snow line, so I will be updating the blog this week on their track, maybe from bed at home.  Tentatively, the first system will arrive later Thursday evening and the second system Saturday night.  Anyway, stay warm, wash your hands, and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Winter Wonderland

Well the snow has came and left.  Depending on where you lived, you either saw a dusting, or  a few inches.  The majority of the snow was south of I-70 and west of I-75, where they saw between 2.5" and 3.5".  East of I-75 and south of I-70 saw about 1"-2", and then the farther north you went the less snowfall.  Areas to the far north saw about less than 1".  If you live in the north though, the winds will bring in about another inch of lake effect snow through the next few days, but for the most part the rest of us can expect a light dusting from time to time, since obviously the farther you live from the Great Lakes the harder it is to get lake effect snow.

Another huge problem for tonight is roadways freezing over into black ice.  The roads were barely warm enough today to melt the slowly falling, but constant, snow.  Now that the temps have fallen into the lower 20's, there has been a lot of viewers calling or tweeting us letting us know that all of the back roads are turning into sheets of ice.  Keep that in mind as you head out the next few days.  I know I have to take another way home because we live on top of a steep hill on a narrow street.  When the roadways were dry, two cars could pass a parked car, but barely....  I do not want to be the one who clips a parked car....not happening.... so I am going another route that will only take a couple minutes more....worth it, in my opinion.

Dawn and I went shopping last night and today and we are about 90% finished.  We know what else we need to get, so almost completely finished.  Surprisingly the malls and stores were not super busy today, I figured with the snow falling it would help ring in the holiday spirit.  Watching people shopping in the snow is a great feeling of mine.  It just like watching people smile walking out of the store knowing they got a really awesome gift for someone.  Whether they spent $3 or more, the price doesn't matter; it's the fact they know they found something special for that special someone.

So the weather ahead: Obviously we will have the chance for more light lake effect snow through the next few days.  The far north could see up to 1", but just another dusting or two for the rest of the Miami Valley.  Temps will stay below freezing all week long so the snow isn't going anywhere fast.  Friday another clipper system looks to swing through the area and we will have to keep an eye on that because the track of the system will determine how much snowfall we will see.  I will keep you updated on that through the coming days, until then make a snowball and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Friday, December 3, 2010

Shopping before the Snow

Well I decided to do a little Christmas shopping today and it amazing how hard it is to find gifts for people.  These stores are LOADED with....stuff, but it is hard to find something that I think someone would really like.  There is occasionally something that pops out, but most of the time I just wander around and just look.  At any rate, I did get a new orange and brown sweatervest to wear on an occasional Sunday's for the Browns, haha.  I saw it and could not say no, plus it was 50% off.

Another reason I went today is so I can just relax at home while it snows tomorrow.  The snow will start in the western counties around sunrise or shortly beforehand and move southwest.  The southwestern areas will see 1-2" and maybe slightly more in isolated spots.  The central part of the area from the northwest to the southeast, (Celina to Dayton to Wilmington) will see around 1" and the farther northeast, by Bellefontaine, may only see about half an inch.  It all should wrap up by the early evening tomorrow, so slow and steady through the daylight hours. If you are planning on heading towards Indy or Cincy plan on dealing with more of the white stuff.  Have fun, travel safe, and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Snowfall numbers for Saturday

Well with the storm about 40 hours out, the forecast models have all been getting a much better handle on system.  We are still looking like the most snow will fall in the southern and western part of the Miami Valley.  While some of the early runs of the models were showing quite a lot, they have settled down to about 1-2 inches across the area and arriving in the morning and fall steadily through the day.  The farther north you live the more likely you will be closer to the 1" mark.  There may be isolated places that see slightly more.  This will be the perfect snow to warm up the shoveling muscles.  If you don't have enough snow in your driveway to shovel, you are more than welcome to warm them up on my driveway.... just saying.  The models may still change slightly, and I will update this again on Friday with a more descriptive forecast as to where I expect the heaviest snow to fall.  I am interested to see how the models run over the next 24 hours because it always seems like right before the first few winter storms arrive, the system pulls further north compared to the earlier model runs.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Update on Saturday's Snow

The models have became a little more consistent with the amount of precip.  The track is still uncertain of the system.  Based on the data in now, the track of the system will leave the largest snowfall to the southwest of Dayton.  As you head farther north and east, the lower snowfall totals.  Areas like Butler County could see a few inches, and the rest of the area backing off from that just a bit. It is still very early to forecast numbers for this, since it will start in the morning/midday on Saturday, so I will be back on later tonight with numbers, since I know that is what everyone loves to hear! 

Well I just wanted to check in real quick.  I am headed down to the National Weather Service office.  There is a huge meeting today put on by them with every broadcast meteorologist that has jurisdiction out of Wilmington NWS meaning: Dayton, Columbus, Cincinnati, and a few others.  It should be a lot of fun to be honest.  Talking about how to inform the public better of severe weather and other topics that others would not get excited about unless they understood the Law of Thermodynamics or quasigeostrophic winds.....  Haha, I will be back on later tonight, until then, GO CAVS, and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

First Major Winter Storm This Weekend????

Well the snow we have seen so far overnight into today has been light.  The morning snow melted off the lawn, but as you can see in the picture, it is slowly accumulating more and more through the afternoon.  It should start tapering off this evening with a few flurries possible Thursday.

Well, taking a look at this weekend: normally the long term models show more precip and have been somewhat conservative with this next system....but now that we are entering the short-term forecast models' threshold, things could get VERY interesting on Saturday.  I have told a few of my friends a while ago that this weekend needed watched closely and we are really starting to see a system take shape.  It is still about 72 hours out, but the models have been consistent with showing the potential for the first snow storm of the season.  While it is still to early to predict exactly how MUCH snow will fall, I can tell you this... the models have shown enough to at least get the shovels out......BUT we just need the system to stay cold enough for all snow, if we get any rain to mix in, then we will see snowfall totals cut back a lot. I will be back on early tomorrow morning with an update.  Until then, stay warm and enjoy watching the current snow melt on the pavement.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael'

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