Early Winter 2024-2025 weather outlook for Central Ohio

 

Well hello everyone! I wanted to share some data I dug up for our winter outlook. This is all very preliminary and just a hypothesis of what may be coming this winter. First, let's look at the big global picture. We had a relatively strong El Nino the last 12 months. El Nino is when the ocean surface in the central & eastern tropical Pacific warms up. That is shifting and the Pacific Ocean is showing signs of cooling down & switching back to La Nina. I used the image above (click to enlarge) to take a look at years when we were switching from a stronger El Nino one winter and transitioning back to La Nina heading into the following winter. I feel like 1966, 1970, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2007, 2010, and 2015 matched this the best. If anyone notes other years that should be included, let me know.

Now for Central Ohio, let's dive into our current situation...

Ohio is currently experiencing the worst drought since the Drought Monitor started in 2000. There have been a lot of people comparing this to 1988. This year is a little different because this has been a rapid onset of a drought. 1988 had 1987 to assist with the drought issues then. We were very dry in 1987 and we started 1988 very dry. We eventually did get more rain during the summer and late summer of 1988 to help bring Ohio out of the exceptional dry spell. Ohio was wetter than normal in 2022 and 2023. This year started with wetter than normal conditions for January, April, and May. But since June 1st Columbus has barely picked up 5" of rain. Normally we should have picked up around 15" of rain already. So we have had a rapid onset of a drought. This is important for the next comparison. Not only have we been very dry, but we have been very warm. Our temperatures so far, through Sept 16, have averaged a mean around 75°. The normal is 72.6° for June through October 1st. So let's dig into the numbers.

I wanted to look at the years that we went from a moderate or strong El Nino to La Nina, listed earlier. I also then did a tabulation for Columbus, Ohio of rain and temperature averages from June 1st through October 1st. I know we are a couple weeks away from October 1st, but our dry and warmer than normal pattern looks to continue through the end of the month. As you can see there are other years that are much wetter than this year. Actually all are wetter than this year. If you look at all of the years since Columbus has kept record, going back to 1878, this is the driest stretch we have ever had from June 1st through the middle of September. So this year is definitely an outlier with how dry it has been. As far as our temperatures, we are much warmer than normal too. Through today's date we are ranked as the 13th warmest stretch from June 1st through the middle of September. So a few years in the El Nino to La Nina are kind of similar. We can throw out 1966, 1970, 1973, and 2015. That only leaves us with 4 other years that are slightly drier than normal for the "summer" and near or above normal for temperatures.

So what happened those 4 years after drier and warmer "summers"? Well we ended up with a mixed bag. Two of the years were much cooler than normal. One year was much warmer than normal and the final year was near normal for temps. So we are not getting a good handle on the temperatures for the winter. When we look at the snowfall though for the 4 years they all indicate near normal or snowier winter for Central Ohio. 

So what do I think we will experience in Central Ohio? Everyone wants to know now what will happen this winter. Based on the past years, it looks like this winter may make up for the last couple of years with very little snow. We may end up with near normal snowfall or more. But it is still too early to know for sure. We need to wait until December 1st. Why? Because we need to see where that polar jet stream (blue arrows) sets up to start the month of December. If it dives a littler farther south then we will likely trend a little cooler the rest of the winter. La Nina often brings wetter winters than normal, but if we trend colder then it would mean more snow. But if the polar jet stream does not dive quite as far south then we will likely be wetter than normal still, but we may end up with more rain than snow. Marshall McPeek takes a lot of time to dive into our winter forecast outlook. As a weather team we all chip in with what we see for the official winter prediction. This particular article is just a little of the behind the scenes look at early thoughts and an unofficial winter prognostication. So stay tuned as we get closer to the middle and end of fall as we continue to monitor the switch from El Nino to La Nina. 

In the mean time, I have taken on some new things in my spare time. I officially closed my Balm By Buck business earlier this year. It was a fun run over the last 5 years running my own small business, but I was so busy with my kids and sports that getting everything shipped out on time was stressing me out. I did start a podcast in early 2023. It is called Weathering The Run. I talk to runners about the craziest weather they have run through and so far it has been very successful and I have loved hearing some of the stories. Feel free to follow along on Instagram for new episodes when they come out every 2 weeks. You can also find the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or all other popular podcast apps. I have kept most of my weather-related posts to Central Ohio on my work Facebook page for now. Thanks for stopping on by and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Mohican 100 miler DONE! Hilltop USA 5k with Summer is next...

I finished the Mohican 100 miler a week ago and finally recovered almost completely. I finished in just over 25 hours with four loops around Mohican State Park.
Lap 1: went out fast for first half while it was cool and then throttled back.
Lap 2: survive the heat, dodge the mountain bikers, listened to some music to pass the miles.

Lap 3: quick sock/lube change before starting. Pain cave. Drained from the heat and tried to stay hydrated. Took a while for my body to finally cool down. Jordan paced me and we shared some good stories and miles at night settled in...

Lap 4: sleep deprivation. I was loopy and trying to ride the caffeine wave. Lee paced me and kept me from going off-trail and down an embankment when I wasn't walking straight. Sun started coming up and we got a second wind & crushed the final miles.

Finish: kids ran with me through the finish line. Started getting "the feels" for the training to pay off and for support of friends and family. Big thanks to my wife Dawn for being flexible the last few months so I could train around my shifted work schedule.

Not done training... Now I am training with Summer for her first 5k. I am emceeing the Hilltop USA 5k in a few weeks and I asked Summer if she wanted to run for the event. She said yes and our training hasn't been ideal, but she runs so much with soccer and being a kid that I am sure she will finish and I am excited to join her in the event. We tried to outrun the rain yesterday and Evan wanted to ride along and offer positivity. 

The kids are getting so big! We have been having a lot of fun this summer and I let them pick what they want to do each day for activities. We checked out COSI earlier this week and today will be checking out new parks.

You may recognize this photo. Today is the 13th anniversary of when I proposed to my wife in Chicago & this photo was the last photo we took before I asked her to marry me. <3 

Rain is moving out and sun will return later today. Another round of scattered storms will return later tomorrow. It is a very wet start to the day with most of the area picking up 1” of rain and a few pockets seeing closer to 2” of rain. The rain is moving out early this morning with just a few sprinkles or pockets of drizzle for late-morning. Clouds will clear out more in the afternoon for some sunshine to return. Morning temps are in the upper 50s and we will warm back into the mid 70s. Mostly clear and cool tonight with temps dipping back into the mid 50s. Thursday we will start with sunshine then more clouds in the afternoon with scattered storms popping up for the afternoon/evening and a high of 80. Severe storms not likely but a few gusty cells with small hail are possible. This is with a cold front and we will be cooler by Friday. Partly cloudy on Friday with a high of 76. Mostly sunny on Saturday with a high of 81. Then partly cloudy on Sunday with a high of 82. Morning low temps will be in the upper 50s. So we have some ideal weather for the Creekside Blues and Jazz Festival, Columbus Pride festivities, Columbus Air Show, and so many more big events planned this weekend. Monday we will see some pop-up storms possible in the afternoon along with Tuesday. Highs will be in the lower 80s and the best chance of rain looks to be more to the south for early next week. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Spring is here, John Kelly podcast interview, & Buck Fifty race

 

It is crazy that we are nearing the end of April already. The kids and I tried doing some fun stuff during spring break, like going to the zoo. Summer also asked for just a couple rest days where we just hung out around the house. I am totally down for that. I did have them go around the fence and find nails that worked their way out. They took turns hammering them back in and saved me about 15-20 minutes, plus they had a blast!

My latest podcast episode with John Kelly came out this morning. I was extremely honored to get a chance to talk with him. I have listened to a few podcasts with him and weather was briefly touched-on during each one and this gave us both a chance to expand on it. You can find Weathering The Run on any of your favorite podcasting apps from Spotify, Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, iHeartRadio, or Google Podcasts. His list of accomplishments is huge, so to share 30 minutes with him was a real treat. 

I ran in the Buck Fifty, 150 mile, relay race over the weekend. We had to chance up our line-up of runners a few times because of injury or other issues. So the final five of us were acquaintances, but we ended up with a handful of great friendships that will last a long time. 

I had a good friend, Rick Ray, stop by a few of my legs that I ran and he snapped this photo. I took videos of the other runners doing their hand-offs(that video is below), but this is one of the only photos snapped during my turn at running. This was the start of my first leg (Leg 3 of 30 overall) and I ended up getting POURED on with lightning and heavy rain. There was a lightning delay when I reached the next checkpoint. I never run without a shirt, but my shirt was weighing about 10 pounds and I was in the middle of nowhere on a bike path so I just carried the shirt the last 3 miles of this leg. Once I handed off the GPS tracker to Mike at the checkpoint I was dumbfounded why the next runner didn't take off. We ended up waiting about an hour before the lightning delay ended and all the runners started going again.

In the end... we finished! And actually we finished in 3rd place for the 5-person teams! A few more details on running in The Buck Fifty relay race. It’s a race of around 100 teams (5 or 10 person) around Ross County and Chillicothe. All the money raised goes towards Drug Free Clubs of America, for the local youth. Amazing cause and an amazing race.

The race is 150 miles long with about 11,000 feet of climbing on the beautiful foothills of Appalachia. My team covered the miles in just under 21 hours. So many memories were made and everyone on the team pushed hard for each of our legs we ran. The legs varied between 3-7 miles with about 80% on the road and 20% on trails. So it came out to about 30 miles per person for our 5-person team.

The race starts in waves so there isn’t 100 vans of runners at the same spot. Our wave started at 4PM with darkening clouds and very warm temps. The race had a lightning delay for about 90 minutes while I was out on a leg. I sprinted to the next checkpoint and got to shelter. But we started back up again with a break in the rain for a couple hours before we had 6 hours of constant moderate rain. Temps got much cooler overnight. We all were soaked and chilly, but kept pushing on. The rain tried it’s best to lull us to sleep, but we kept moving and the sun came up and the clouds parted for a beautiful sunny morning to crank out the remaining miles. It was so awesome to see sunshine and blue skies again! Towards the end of the race we all kept saying how trashed our legs and body felt from pushing so hard, but we would recoup and go out and run as hard as we could for the next segment.

The team did talk about doing an episode of Weathering The Run on the race and potentially asking the race director, Dave Huggins, to come on and join us. Not an easy task to do a lightning delay on a race that is spread out all over the county and the make the call to start the race again. Plus we all had to run through the rain all night and that left our cargo van with a distinct scent for a while. It seemed to go away though after a while, but maybe we got used to the wet-dog and worm smell. HAHA!

Big takeaways:
It was extremely well organized. They gave us two booklets to breakdown each leg of the race and it was like the old TripTik my grandpa would get for vacations. Each segment had details for running and how many hills there were plus turn by turn directions. This year they had GPS trackers that each team would handoff and it made tracking your runner very helpful to know when to be prepared to run the next leg.
Amazing volunteers! These people were donating their time to stand under a tent in the rain in the middle of the night to document our team/time to make sure everyone was safely completing the event.
The kids/program we helped were very grateful. They wrote thank you cards to all the runners thanking them for their support. Several areas were decorated with hundreds of signs of encouragement.
My team… Can’t say enough about how much fun we all had. We kept taking turns jumping out of the van to go run our segments and jump back in the van soaked, sweaty, muddy, chilly, exhausted, smelly… but always smiling. We had so many great laughs and most of us did not know each other very well before this event. I made new life-long friends at this event and I HIGHLY recommend getting involved with this event going forward.

Good Wednesday morning! We have a few isolated rain showers this morning with clouds, but that will clear out for sunshine today and a high around 60. Light breeze out of the north today. Mostly clear tonight with frost and low temps in the mid 30s. We warm back up to 65 tomorrow with early sun then more clouds through the day. Rain returns Thursday evening. Take advantage of the dry weather later today and tomorrow because it is looking soggy heading into the weekend with shorter dry periods. Friday will start with steady rain then scattered rain later in the day with a high around 66. Saturday could start with a few showers then we are dry for the middle of the day with more rain returning from the northwest later in the day. Highs in the upper 60s on Saturday. Scattered showers return on Sunday with a high around 60. Winds will start picking up, 10-20 mph, through the weekend and we remain breezy early next week. Cool with lingering showers on Monday and a high of 51. Slight chance for showers on Tuesday with highs around 56. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Quick Vegas trip, working extra, new podcast episode

The wife and I took a quick trip to Las Vegas with some of her family and a couple of their friends. It was a lot of fun to get away, but it was actually very chilly there!

Timing just happened to line up with the half marathon, so I did run that. It started in the late afternoon and you run as the sun is going down and Vegas turns on all the awesome lights. Fun event!

Now I am back home and back to reality. Our 5 person weather team is down to 4 people right now, so I have been working a lot of extra shifts. Being short-staffed at work is a big reason why I have not had as much time to updated the blog. I am trying to get to it, but then something else is added to my plate. I am backing off on school talks until we get another person on the team. And we have had a lot of extra projects at home. I had to fix our washing machine. I am also building this custom end table for our living room with recessed cup holders and a powerbank. I am also refinishing an hallway table I found for the kids to use as a craft table. Cut down the legs and found some great wooden toddler chairs. We also got a bunk bed for the kids and reorganizing some of the rooms. I built 3 bookcases yesterday for more shelving. Always something going on.  

I have been logging some big miles with some friends. We did 24 miles at Tar Hollow recently. Lots of big hills and climbing there. Also a lot of downed trees across the trail making it more of an obstacle course than a true run.

My latest episode of "Weathering The Run" is out, with Star Blackford. She talked about heat training for running Badwater 135 across Death Valley. Not only just about getting the body ready for the heat, but getting the body ready to take on lots of fluids to run across the hottest place on earth. This coming year will be her second time running the race, but she often goes out to help crew other runners attempting to battle the elements. I have a couple other guests lined up and excited to chat with them. I don't feel like it is a lot of extra work because I am always excited to hear the craziest weather they have had to endure. 

Hopefully you enjoyed the beautiful sunshine as we celebrated the Spring Equinox yesterday. Today we will see more clouds arriving through the day with morning temps dipping into the lower 30s and then rebounding back to around 57 this afternoon. We stay dry today and it is the only dry day on the 7-day forecast. This evening rain showers will start arriving from the southwest and we will have light rain overnight and temps dipping to around 40. Cloudy for Wednesday with the early light rain showers and then another wave of rain showers later in the day. We may see some spotty light rain during the day itself, but most of the rain will be early and then again late. High temps in the mid 50s on Wednesday. Thursday we get a surge of warm air and morning temps will be around 50 then we reach a high around 70 by the afternoon. The extra warmth will give more fuel for scattered showers and storms on and off for the day. Right now severe storms are not likely, but localized flooding will start to be a concern for Thursday through Saturday. Heavy rain at times for Thursday through Saturday. Friday and Saturday will be cooler with highs in the 50s. Rainfall totals will vary depending on the track of the heavier pockets of rain, but 2” of rain possible for some areas and even localized locations could see more than 3” of rain by Saturday night. Sunday we get a slight break in the rain with mostly cloudy skies, but another wave of rain possible Sunday night into next Monday. Highs around 60 for the weekend and then lower 60s on Monday. So get outside and enjoy the mild, dry day today! Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

First Father-Daughter Dance, running fun, & new podcast!

I took Summer to our first Father-Daughter dance last weekend. We both had a lot of fun. I am excited to see her grow up into an amazing woman, but I will really miss these younger moments. 

Weather has been up and down lately, but generally up. I have been able to take Evan out for some runs in the stroller lately. So for February, that has been nice. 

I love being able to see unique things on my runs. Daffodils were already blooming on my run at Great Seal State Park over the weekend. I also found this unique tree. Not sure what caused the bark to be shredded like this, but I reached out to ODNR to see what they think. 

Sooooo... I started a thing. A podcast! I love hearing people's stories about crazy weather on their runs and chatting with people. So why not actually host conversations?!?! You can find Weathering The Run on any of your favorite podcasting apps. The main website is anchor.fm/weatheringtherun if you want to listen to the episodes on a web browser. I have debated doing a WordPress to also host the content, but I am not sure of the benefits of doing that to be honest.  

So far I have the trailer out and Episode #1 with my good buddy Mike Gampp. I also have the second interview done and that will be released March 1st with Samuel Hartman. Both are great episodes and I am very thankful for both of them helping me get it started. The interview coming out with Samuel is jam packed and it went longer than the 30 minutes I had planned because there was so many great stories and things to cover. So go check out what is out already. And if you can, please subscribe and review. I don't think there are any reviews yet, so you could be the first one! Plus it helps others find the podcast. Thanks!

Each day this week has something to be prepared for in Central Ohio. Today and Thursday will be our windiest days. Tomorrow, Wednesday, will be our wettest day. Thursday will be our warmest day and forecasted to tie the daily record high temperature followed by Friday being our coldest day.

Pockets of fog this morning in some of the valleys, but winds are picking up so that will not last too long. We have a weak disturbance causing some light rain showers in Indiana early this morning and they are going to swing into Ohio early this morning with clouds. This will kick out east fast with some afternoon sun coming out for Central Ohio. Temperatures are around 40 now and only warm to 48 this afternoon. Winds will pick up today and be strongest midday with gusts 35 mph possible, out of the west.

Tonight our temperatures fall into the mid-lower 30s, especially Northern Ohio. Rain showers will move in by daybreak tomorrow and Northern Ohio could start out as a wintry mix then change over to rain. It will be a wet morning with rain most of the morning then a break in the rain midday and the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the lower 60s by late in the day. We will have winds out of the southeast 10-15 mph. Another round of rain likely later tomorrow including a few rumbles of thunder, but severe weather not likely.

Thursday will start out with some early rain and then sun tries coming out with temps going from the upper 50s in the morning to the lower 70s by the afternoon. It will be windy on Thursday with winds out of the southwest 20-30 mph and gusts 45 mph possible. A cold front will sweep across Ohio in the late afternoon and evening and that may trigger some isolated rain again. Temps fall fast Thursday night.

Friday is partly cloudy with morning temps around 28 and a high of 37. The weekend has some very weak disturbances with a slight chance of some showers. Morning temps around 30 and highs around 50. More rain looking likely next Monday with temps in the upper 50s. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Fun weekend running with friends then basketball

Good morning! I am getting really tired of running in the cold weather, but at least I have been blessed with friends for my long runs. I hosted our recent run at Battelle Darby Creek Metro Park. We had 6 of us running and we knocked out 18 miles together. Then I raced home to shower and get ready for Summer's basketball game. The following day we went to the Ohio State Women's Basketball game and had a blast. They even let the kids shoot two lay-ups after the game. 

I have had to resort to wearing a buff for my runs, especially when I am going against the wind. I can't grow a beard for work, otherwise that would be super helpful during these colder months. I also notice my form changes because my body is cold and tight. Hoping this upcoming weekend will be the last time running with wind chills in the single digits for the season. February is looking to warm up more with above normal temperatures starting this weekend. Hopefully it sticks around, but hard to say once we get more than a few weeks out. 

I get to work today and someone hung up a few of these "I TRUST Buckeye Chuck" signs. Someone has jokes on this Groundhog Day.

Good Thursday morning! We will warm up more today with a high of 39. Mix of sun & clouds today and staying dry during the day. Tonight a cold front will sweep down from the north for mostly cloudy skies and flurries. Our temps will drop into the mid teens by Friday morning. Clouds will decrease through the morning tomorrow with more sun later and temps barely warming with a high around 20. Wind chills near zero Friday morning and single digits through the day Friday. The weekend will start cold with wind chills Saturday morning in the single digits, but we warm up more each day. Saturday afternoon we will warm to the upper 30s with mostly sunny skies. Sunday we will warm up to a high of 48 with mostly cloudy skies. A weak system to the north may give us a couple sprinkles later on Sunday afternoon/evening. Next week starts dry on Monday with a high of 48 and partly cloudy skies. Mostly cloudy for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 50s. We will also have the chance for some scattered rain showers later Tuesday into Wednesday. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Spring in January, but it will not last long...

Wow! What a beautiful day yesterday! We ended up warming up to 60° for the high. Lots of midday sun and Evan and I went for a run along Griggs Reservoir then when Summer got home from school we practiced some basketball. But, winter is back today and some snow on the way. 

 

We have been having fun doing science experiments at home and the kids have been loving it. I love seeing the amazement in the kids faces and trying to answer their questions. Sometimes I have to look up answers for them. We have been binging a channel on YouTube where a teacher answers lots of questions about the world around us. I think it is called Mystery Doug.

In some bittersweet news, I am closing up my BalmByBuck.com shop on Etsy. If you are reading this early enough, feel free to stock up using the code 50OFF for 50% off. I have been making the balm for about 5 years now and there are a handful of reasons to close up the shop. I have had a handful of people let me know they are really sad about it closing and that has really meant a lot. I am excited for extra time to spend with the kids and family and I have a new project that I am starting to plan. Nothing for sale with the new project, but providing something free and it will be a labor of love... so stay tuned!

Good Friday morning! Make sure to grab the coat this morning because it will feel like the 20s all day long because of our brisk winds. Winds, out of the west, will be gusting 20-25 mph this morning and then slowly become lighter through the day. Thankfully not nearly as windy as yesterday evening. Many official wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range including a 61 mph wind gust at the OSU airport near Dublin. We are also very lucky the trees are bare because we would have more downed branches and trees if we had leaves. Back to today… Cloudy with light snow/flurries and a high around 37, but feeling like 29 for the high. Patchy accumulations up to half an inch possible. Lighter winds tonight and mostly cloudy skies with a low around 29 and a minimum wind chill in the lower 20s. Mostly cloudy on Saturday with a high of 38 and a very light breeze. Sunday we are tracking a wintry mix headed toward the area. The track still could change between now and Sunday, but right now it looks like we could see 1”-3” of snow for Central Ohio areas that stay all snow, but some rain may sneak in and that would cut down on snowfall totals. Stay tuned to the forecast because there will likely need to be adjustments. A few flurries or light snow showers lingering early Monday. Highs in the upper 30s for Sunday and Monday. Tuesday will be quiet once again with mostly cloudy skies and we warm to 42 for the high and the warmest day on the 7-day. Another rain/snow on Wednesday and this looks to have more moisture. Some lingering flurries on Thursday as temperatures drop even more. We will have a high around 41 on Wednesday then a high of 32 on Thursday. Even colder temps by Friday and next weekend. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael