Friday, February 28, 2014

Slight shift South for coming snow

All of the models are agreeing that the main punch of snow for Sunday-Monday will be a little more South. Still will likely shift over the coming days but that potentially means a little less snow for Central Ohio and more for Southern Ohio. I still think 4-6+" is likely for Central Ohio and areas along I-70 and 6-9+" is possible for Southern Ohio.

We will see a little rain/snow mix Saturday and early Sunday, but the main punch will be Sunday night into Monday.

I also added the + sign because there will be areas of slightly higher totals, but the BIG caveat will be the temps. We need to stay below freezing a few hundred feet above the surface for snow to verify. Any warm air aloft will change us to sleet and then cut down on snowfall totals.  I will keep a close eye on it and have more updates... But for now, I wouldn't plan on doing any unnecessary traveling on Monday.  See ya back soon! Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Big snow on the way for Ohio

At this point a heavy snow is very likely starting a little Saturday and Sunday, but the main punch of the storm will be Sunday overnight into Monday morning.  Actually Saturday will be fairly "mild" with highs in the 40's but then cold air starts working in Sunday and we see falling temps through the day.  Above is the issue with this storm.  We are, again, on the rain/snow line to start the storm.  The above image is from 7PM Sunday and you can see some potential for ice on the leading edge.  Because of the potential for rain or ice PLEASE TAKE THE FOLLOWING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT... THESE ARE NOT EXACT.
Above is the snowfall by 7PM for the short term NAM American model.  There will likely be some snow starting to fall, but the temperatures Sunday afternoon and evening will help determine exactly how much snow we can expect.  The NAM also is showing (on its latest run) over a quarter of an inch of sleet before the snow starts... NOT good if that pans out.
Again, please take these last two models with a grain of salt.  The Euro is showing around 9" of snow for most of Ohio, but this will be a heavy snow so once it compresses, it will likely be a little less than that.
The GFS model is VERY aggressive with the cold temps and snow and has us below freezing for the entire afternoon and evening Sunday.  If that pans out then there will likely be enough snow to see 9+" of snow.

This is a comparison of the last few GFS model runs... The GFS has been very consistent with at least 8" of snow for Columbus by Monday evening.  Regardless, that will be parts of Ohio with nearly a foot of snow.  As with the past systems, if you see any rain, sleet, or freezing rain then your numbers will be reduced for snow totals.   I will keep you posted, but if you have travel plans Monday, I would have a backup plan ready to go at this point.  Monday's traveling will be an absolute mess.  Be sure to check back in to the Buckosphere for more in-depth details in the coming days.

Until then... maybe sleds are on clearance. ;)  See ya back here soon.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Big winter storm early next week?

You may have heard about a big winter storm on the way and there is some truth to it, but the storm is still bouncing around a little. So as far as who will see how much snow... Hard to say right now, but parts of Ohio will see at least half a foot of snow if not closer to a full foot of snow by Tuesday.

We see a flurry or two for the coming days, and a dusting early Saturday. The real moisture pushes in later Sunday and lingers into early Tuesday. The question will be the track of the Low up from the Tennessee Valley. If it tracks along the Ohio River,  and far SE Ohio, then a lot of snow for us in Ohio, but recent runs have the rain/snow line closer to Indy to Lima to Akron. That would result in more rain and ice for Central Ohio and much less snow.

I posted a few models below just to show you that they are not agreeing on the track. I will keep an eye on it and keep you informed. Be sure to check back.  Have a good!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Which one do you like?

Rebuilding this Puch Maxi moped from scratch and I can't decide if I should throw on the swooping orange fender and matching rear shock... Hmm.... Comment below and let me know what you think!
I can't believe I haven't mentioned it yet on my blog... but mark your calendars to attend the Severe Weather Symposium in a month at Ohio State.  I will be doing a discussion in the morning with Bill Kelly about what goes into wall-to-wall severe weather coverage.  It will be a pretty entertaining segment with lots of video from on-camera to behind-the-scenes video too.  Oh... and it is free!

As for the weather for Central Ohio... Sunny and chilly Monday with highs near 30. Tuesday morning some flurries or light snow showers could leave a dusting for some.  Similar temps for Tuesday, but then much colder later in the week with lows dipping into the teens in spots through the rest of the workweek.  There is another weak front for Thursday, but little to no moisture for it to work with.  More light snow possible next weekend, but right now it all is looking VERY light.  Kinda nice to have a "quiet" week... just wish it was warmer, but I will take it.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Rain/snow mix tonight & Sunday

The last few days have been fantastic... warm, sunny... GREAT!!! ... until I was under my truck changing the oil and the wind blew the stream of oil into my face.  Stinking wind...
First order of business at the garage was to get it organized.  I got some shelving and made more room to work on the bikes.  It looks pretty awesome in there now.
Alright... organized... time to start working on my bikes.  I have small projects on three bikes, but I decided to start on the fourth.  I took it to the car wash to clean the frame.
After three hours... I got the wheels on, rebuilt motor on, and some other small details.  I am very excited to finish this bike.  It will be one of my favorite bikes I have built, only to sell once it is finished.  But it looks like my time at the garage will have to wait with the cold weather returning.
A stationary front has parked itself from St. Louis to Cleveland.  It will be VERY slow to move to the south overnight and Sunday.  Rain/snow showers will be triggered along the line, but the models are hinting at some dry air working in along the line for the morning/midday.  By tomorrow evening the line will be along the Ohio River... so VERY slow moving. 

We then stay below freezing for the entire week ahead.  Highs will be in the low 30's for Monday and Tuesday but we will see several punches of cold air.  First front moves through tomorrow with the rain/snow mix.  Another weak front moves through early Tuesday with a dusting of snow possible.  Another front moves through early Thursday, but by then most of the moisture is gone so any snow will be lighter.  So by the time we get to the end of the week the three cold fronts will leave us in the single digits for low temps.  Good thing I took advantage of the mild temps.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Final pre-storm update

First line of showers and storms moving into Ohio currently and they will be in and out of here by noon.  There have been some reports of small hail and even some lightning with the morning showers / storms.

Tonight the timing is still looking between 9 p.m. & 1 a.m.  Winds are still the main threat with the storms but there also is a very very slim chance that there could be a quick spin up of a tornado. Again the main threat will be the strong winds and heavy rains potentially causing flash flooding. The winds this afternoon and Friday will be very windy even without the storms. The storms will just help to accelerate the winds.  The Storm Prediction Center ended up going a "Moderate Risk" just south of Ohio. For Ohio, the strongest storms, again, will be south of Interstate 70.

I am heading to the garage now to try to do some spring cleaning / organizing since we will likely get to 60 degrees this afternoon . I am very likely being called into work later tonight to help cover the storms, on my day off. I highly recommend downloading our "Ohio WX" weather app. Once you set your notifications on there it will alert you for any watches or warnings issued later today. For right now it's a good idea to bring in any loose items that may be outside. Stay safe and have a good one.

Andrew Buck Michael

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Update on Thursday's storms

The most recent information is pointing toward the strongest storms across the Southern half of Ohio. These locations will have warmer and more humid air to help sustain stronger storms. Northern Ohio will stay cooler and while strong storms/showers with gusty winds are possible, not as likely to be as strong. 

The main threat with the storms will be strong gusty winds and very heavy rain. The forecast model below is a projected radar image for midnight Thursday night.  I think the timing is looking more like 9PM to 1AM for the leading edge of the storm to roll through Columbus. It will be a very quick moving storm and push to the east rapidly.

So a few showers early Thursday then the strong line of storms later in the evening. More updates tomorrow. Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Strong storms likely Thursdsy

Well... The big warmup has started for Ohio.  We got to 46 in Columbus today and it felt fantastic. Other than a few sprinkles tonight/tomorrow, we stay dry until Thursday.

We will be nearing 60 by Thursday. There appears to be some morning light rain, but the big story will be in the evening. Winds will be strong all Thursday and especially Friday for the Ohio Valley. Those winds will be even stronger within the line of showers and storms. Winds will be the main threat with the storms along with flooding. We will likely see between 0.75" to 1"+ across Ohio. Add in the melting snow and that's a recipe for high water and flooding. It is typical with these winter storm that lightning my not be plentiful, but don't let that fool you. These storms will be very strong and the winds will likely cause issues like power outages.

The timing for the showers will be around sunrise or just after. The strong storms will be between 7PM and Midnight Thursday.   I will keep you posted but wanted to give you a heads up. Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

(Below are the predicted winds and odds of severe storms for Thursday) 

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Freezing fog forming

Thick fog is forming due to the clearing skies. With temperatures below freezing, the fog will leave a glaze of ice on the surface of cars, pavement, and anything outside. Careful early tomorrow. Prolonged freezing fog will cause treacherous conditions in patches, so just because you are not experiencing it where you live, you may hit patches of ice for your morning commute.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Another wintry mix Monday

I had a decent amount of people stopping by the USTREAM chat tonight.  Here is a link to the channel to see the videos:  A lot of questions were about the wintry mix for Monday.  I will be streaming from behind the scenes for the 10 and 11PM news tonight.
There is a Winter Weather Advisory issued for the counties just north of Columbus.  These locations will likely stay all snow.
The morning Monday will be dry and the same for the early afternoon.  But around 4-6PM the wintry mix will move into Central Ohio.  Above is the Futurecast model for 6PM tomorrow.  If you live north of Columbus you have a much better chance of staying all snow and the locations that stay all snow will see the highest snowfall.  For areas along I-70 and to the south it will be a degree or two warmer and that will result in sleet, a rain/snow mix, and rain even further south.  It will be a very quick system.  The above image does a good job of showing where we expect to see the rain(green), wintry mix(Pink) and all snow(blue).
Most of the accumulating snow will be done before midnight Monday night, so it will give road crews time overnight to get to the snow north of Columbus.  There will be some light snow showers or flurries overnight, but not a whole lot.  Areas that see mainly rain could see a light dusting overnight.  For the wintry mix, the closer you are to all rain the lower the snowfall expected.  For areas that only see a little bit of a wintry mix and see a decent amount of snow, you will see around 1-2" of snow and if you stay all snow then 2-4" of snow can be expected. 

The good news is that once that system kicks out of here we begin a warming trend.  I am going with 58 for the high on Thursday with rain showers as well.  I think people will not mind the rain to clear some of the salt, snow, and grime away.  I know I will be organizing my garage and installing some shelving units on my days off.  I can't wait for the warmer temperatures because I haven't been able to do much in the garage all winter and I have two mopeds I need to rebuild and sell.  Well I will check back in soon... Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Vlog, video blog.... Thoughts?

Thought I would try something new.  Video blog.  Thoughts?  Leave a comment and let me know!

The snowy weather will not let up.  Another light accumulation early Sunday.  Most of Ohio will stay less than 1", but a few pockets may get slightly more.  Then Monday night a wintry mix.  Our temperatures late Monday will be right on the line for rain to the south, snow to the North and the battleground across Central Ohio.  Still about 48 hours out and half a degree will mean a big difference.  I will keep ya posted on that.

One thing I can guarantee is a warm-up for the week ahead. We will get into the 50's Thursday with rain, and then try to get to 60 by next Saturday.  We will see rain on Thursday, but hey... if it is 50, I don't care.  I will take it!!!  I will keep ya posted on Monday mix, so check back in and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Valentine's Day Snow

Still tracking some light snow, especially across Southern Ohio for the afternoon and evening for Valentine's Day. The snow may be moderate at times, but not super heavy. Also looking at another inch or two early Sunday and even a little rain to start the workweek.

Still tracking 50's by the end of next week. Looking forward to that!

Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

No snow? Models can't agree.

Models bouncing around with Friday and Saturday/Sunday snow.  They were agreeing some earlier this week, but not the last few runs.  Some of the models, like the CMC and Euro are boosting the snow some on Friday midday and then almost showing nothing late Saturday/early Sunday. 

The one thing they are all agreeing on is the warming temps and rain on Monday.  Just thought I would jump on here and give you an idea of how wishy washy the models have been.  I think the chances for snow are decent, but not a guarantee Friday or Saturday/Sunday.  Regardless... they are looking fairly light for now. Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Big warm up next week...

Still tracking some light snow Friday morning and late Saturday this week both look generally less than an inch(maybe a tad more Saturday)... But... The models have been fairly persistent with warm temperatures late next week. So excited for it... But we may have to trade it for some rain. I will keep ya posted. Have a good one.

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Moving up the snowfall record chart...

Thanks to the 1.9" of snow Columbus received today... we are well above average.  Actually, we have had over a foot of snow since last Sunday.  Crazy!  So if we stopped right now with no more snow, we would already have received 172% of snow compared to normal.
That bumps us up to the sixth snowiest winter we have had in Columbus.  I EASILY think we will continue to climb that list... I mean shoot... Getting to #2 would only take another 6.5" of snow.
I did my weekly USTREAM chat and I was asking about the roads out there.  It seems that only one person said the roads were absolutely horrible.  Most agreed that the main roads are fine, but the side streets are the bad ones.  I am not surprised, but in the outlying areas and the hilly areas to the south and east, schools are already closing.  We have over 40 delays, for Central Ohio schools, as well by 10PM the night before... and that list will continue to grow.

Clouds slowly clearing overnight as flurries leave.  Very cold by daybreak with temps falling back into the single digits and wind chills just below zero.  Clouds continue to clear Monday with more sun later in the afternoon and remaining cold through the first half of the week, but trading off the cold temperatures with some sun.  Tuesday and Wednesday will be very cold in the morning with lows near or just below zero with light winds.  We slowly warm up heading into the end of the week as more snow looks to return.  Right now the snow is looking pretty light for Thursday night-Friday morning and it continues to weaken for Saturday night as well.  I will keep an eye on it and keep you posted.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, February 8, 2014

More snow for tomorrow

The blog has been quiet a few days.  I worked 18.5 straight hours in the Social Media Center during the winter storm Tuesday night and I needed a few days to just unplug... 

For anyone who DID watch the morning newscast... the Good Day Columbus Facebook page passed 14,000 "Likes" (About 1500 new ones in three hours) and I promised to put on my Ron Burgundy onesie if we reached the goal... and we did.  (I was afraid management wouldn't like the idea, but the General Manager came and gave me a high five)

So anyway, back at work... and now more snow returns, but luckily not nearly as much.

Quiet tonight with passing clouds, a few flurries, and light winds.  Snow showers develop for the morning on Sunday and leave midday with 1-2" accumulations for most of Central Ohio by Sunday afternoon.

Very cold temperatures return for the start of the workweek, but we look to remain dry until the end of the workweek.  The chance for a wintry mix returns for later in the week along with temperatures above freezing.  
In other uplifting news... the forecast models have been consistently showing temps back in the 50's in two weeks... Looking forward for that!!!  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Final blog update before the winter storm arrives...

Winter storm warnings stretching almost all the way across the country.  And Ohio will be right on the rain/snow/ice line again... 
These screen grabs were from Bill Kelly's forecast last night.  I think it is pretty close to on target, but the latest information pulls the ice line further North... meaning more ice along that Cincinnati-Columbus-Pittsburgh line I have been talking about for days.
So here is the latest information... The ice line is right as projected.  And some heavy ice according to the latest NAM model.
For any non weather nerds... 0z is 7PM and 12z is 7AM on these graphs.  (Greenwich time)  So overnight tonight there is a warm pocket of air a few thousand feet into the air.  THAT is why this forecast is so hard to do.  Snow would fall into that warm pocket of air (and it looks that way for several hours for Columbus) and then the rain would fall back into the below freezing temperatures.  That will result in sleet and/or freezing rain.  It depends on how far aloft the warm air is for your given location.
So if we see this ice event... and the NAM shows a historic ice event... then the snow totals are GREATLY reduced across the Cincinnati-Columbus-Pittsburgh line and to the south.
But for you snow lovers... the Euro is still staying all snow and has a LOT of it.  Really, it is going to come down to when it starts and monitor the radar and conditions.

Timing... it will roll in around the evening commute tonight.  It will pick up in intensity overnight and wrap up mid morning tomorrow.  I still think that Northwestern Ohio will stay all snow.  I still think that far Southeastern Ohio will mainly stay all rain followed by some light snow early Wednesday.  Central Ohio will be the battleground between the two forces.  As far as snow totals... IF you stay all snow then 5-9+" are likely... again IF you stay all snow.  Across Central Ohio... some places could potentially see see up to 0.5" of ice followed by a few inches of snow (More NW and less SE).  Regardless... roads will be a mess Wednesday, that I can assure you.  No matter if you see the ice or snow, it will be a mess. 

I am working this afternoon all the way through tomorrow afternoon.  I will likely be doing a USTREAM most of the time with live video.  Here is the link for the LIVE video while I am working in the social media center:

So pick out which Star Wars movie you want to watch tomorrow (that's what I did on a snow day) and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael 

Monday, February 3, 2014

Ice shifting south, more snow Columbus

The track of the low has shifted about 30 miles further south. Above you can see what can be expected around midnight Tuesday night.
That means the heavy snow has shifted a little further south as well.  I still think Columbus has the potential for some ice, but a better chance of ice for Southern Ohio.
This is the Euro forecast model and I am agreeing with that a little more.  From Cincinnati to Columbus to Pittsburgh, PA (which was the ice line yesterday) will now be the heavier snow totals.  I think along that line 6-9+" inches of snow are possible with some places seeing slightly more than that in isolated pockets.  Far Northwestern Ohio will see 3-6" and far Southeastern Ohio will see the ice and rain followed with only a few inches of snow.  Keep in mind, ANY bit of icing or rain will quickly drop your snow fall totals.  If this was an all snow event it would be much easier to forecast, but that dang ice line is splitting Ohio.   Anyway, these are my latest thoughts... Any changes and I will let you know.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Tornado machine & snow/ice storm update

First off I have to show you the Tornado Machine I made today.  Pretty sweet.  I cost a little more than expected.  It will be around $90 once I get it painted, but I will be able to use it for my school talks a lot!
So forecast is staying pretty solid for Tuesday.  The icing line will still likely run from Cincinnati to Columbus to Pittsburgh area... there have been some minor adjustments, but nothing night and day.
Here is the latest RPM model output for the freezing rain.  (This was not available yesterday, but look how it compares to the forecast I made yesterday, below)
Quiet night for Columbus with temperatures falling below freezing causing some icy spots.  Southern Ohio will see accumulating snow.  Expecting generally 2-4" by midday Monday with higher totals closer to the Ohio River.

We stay dry Monday and during the day Tuesday.  Rain/Ice/Snow storm arrives Tuesday evening and will continue into early Wednesday.  Right now the ice line appears to run from Cincinnati to Columbus to Pittsburgh, PA.  There will be a sharp cut-off from significant snow to significant ice(freezing rain) and then over to rain showers.  North of the ice line, where it stays all snow, 6-8+" of snow is likely.  Areas that see any freezing rain will see much less snow, followed by up to a few inches of snow as we fall back below freezing early Wednesday.  Areas that see rain will see mostly rain followed by brief icing and minimal snow compared to the rest of the system.  Roads will likely be very treacherous Wednesday morning.  Stay tuned to the forecast as this system is still a fluid situation and some adjustments will be needed.  See ya back tomorrow & have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Models shift Southeast next week, more snow for some

So below I have three images.  The top image is the NAM and GFS precipitation outputs the last four model runs each for Columbus. The upper part of the image is the most recent so you can see the GFS has been trending colder and colder the last four runs. NAM is not yet on the chart but it will be soon. 

The next image is the temperature profile for Wilmington. Notice how there is the warm pocket of air late Tuesday and Wednesday. That's the perfect recipe for freezing rain. Snow would melt in that warm pocket of air then fall back into freezing temperatures and freeze on contact. Again, that is the big story here. Ice for an extended period of time will likely lead to power outages. 

The final image is comparing the GFS and Euro snow totals for the Tuesday-Wednesday system. You can see that they are agreeing more than before. Western and Northern Ohio will likely see a decent amount of snow. You can see for yourself... It is NOT this 20" snow that you have seen about or heard about.  As it stands now... (And this will likely change, so please check back in for uodates) Northern and Western Ohio could see 6-8" of snow with some pockets seeing more. There will be a VERY SHARP cutoff line to lower totals along the ice line. As it stands now that line looks to go from Cincinnati to Columbus to Pittsburgh, PA. Areas to the south and East of this line will stay mainly all snow. Along that line will be the mix. 

As mentioned... The models are still bouncing around a little. So please check back in but wanted to give you and update, in depth look at next week.  Have a good one. 

Andrew Buck Michael 

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