Thursday, February 27, 2014

Big snow on the way for Ohio

At this point a heavy snow is very likely starting a little Saturday and Sunday, but the main punch of the storm will be Sunday overnight into Monday morning.  Actually Saturday will be fairly "mild" with highs in the 40's but then cold air starts working in Sunday and we see falling temps through the day.  Above is the issue with this storm.  We are, again, on the rain/snow line to start the storm.  The above image is from 7PM Sunday and you can see some potential for ice on the leading edge.  Because of the potential for rain or ice PLEASE TAKE THE FOLLOWING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT... THESE ARE NOT EXACT.
Above is the snowfall by 7PM for the short term NAM American model.  There will likely be some snow starting to fall, but the temperatures Sunday afternoon and evening will help determine exactly how much snow we can expect.  The NAM also is showing (on its latest run) over a quarter of an inch of sleet before the snow starts... NOT good if that pans out.
Again, please take these last two models with a grain of salt.  The Euro is showing around 9" of snow for most of Ohio, but this will be a heavy snow so once it compresses, it will likely be a little less than that.
The GFS model is VERY aggressive with the cold temps and snow and has us below freezing for the entire afternoon and evening Sunday.  If that pans out then there will likely be enough snow to see 9+" of snow.

This is a comparison of the last few GFS model runs... The GFS has been very consistent with at least 8" of snow for Columbus by Monday evening.  Regardless, that will be parts of Ohio with nearly a foot of snow.  As with the past systems, if you see any rain, sleet, or freezing rain then your numbers will be reduced for snow totals.   I will keep you posted, but if you have travel plans Monday, I would have a backup plan ready to go at this point.  Monday's traveling will be an absolute mess.  Be sure to check back in to the Buckosphere for more in-depth details in the coming days.

Until then... maybe sleds are on clearance. ;)  See ya back here soon.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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