Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Big snow on the way?

I join you from the desk of Adam Aaro today.  I didn't want to step on anyone's toes and take their desk.  Since he started his new job in Dayton yesterday I jumped on in, now that I am off of the set for Good Day Columbus.
Wind chills were the big story today.  Wind Chill Advisory til 10AM this morning.

Another frigid start to the day with wind chills between -5 to -10 all morning.  A mix of sun and clouds today and warming into the upper teens. Winds lighten up as well today and tonight. More clouds tonight and then cloudy with light snow showers for Wednesday. Snow accumulations by Wednesday evening will be around an inch for Central Ohio. North of I -70 may see a little less and South of I-70 may see a little more.

We dry out for Thursday, but will be watching the potential for a significant snow storm for Friday into Saturday.

Want a breakdown?  Let's get a little nerdy...
So the image above shows the comparison of the NAM and GFS models.  We are out of daylight saving time, so the dashed line for the "new day" is 7PM for the day before (0z UTC).  The timing of Wednesday's snow looks to start after the morning commute and be done by the evening commute.  Notice that the Friday snow is bouncing around a little on timing.  The 18z version from yesterday had the snow starting around 6-7PM on Friday, but the newest model 6z (at the top) has it starting midday Friday and snowing heaviest from 3-6PM Friday.  So this just shows you that this system is still bouncing around a little.
There is a Low Pressure off the West Coast...  that will assist in bringing Friday/Saturday's snow.  It will ride down toward Northern Texas then turn back up to Delaware.  It kinda falls apart over the Rockies but reorganizes over Texas.  If the storm makes even a SUBTLE shift right or left then it could change the track dramatically.  This thing has to move over the Rockies then back down into the Plains.  So take these next models with a grain of salt and PLEASE check back in over the coming days.
This image, above, shows the weather map at 1PM Friday. The royal blue dashed line in Eastern Tennessee and Kentucky that runs through West Virginia over to Southern Delaware is the rain/snow line.  Based on this model it is keeping Ohio in the all snow track.  Notice the Low Pressure (black 1004 isobar) is over Eastern Tennessee in this map.
So who will see the most snow?  Right now the heaviest track of snow looks to be through Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, and into Pennsylvania. With this southern track, this means Southern Ohio could deal with more snow than Central and Northern Ohio. As we get closer to the end of the week we will be able to start getting a good idea as to how much snow we can expect.  I am not going to speculate to snowfall totals just yet, but it is likely somewhere in the Midwest/East Coast will get a LOT.

Again, these models keep coming out all day long every 6 hours, so more and more information will be coming in and once the Low drops on this side of the Rockies we will get a much more accurate look at the track of the storm. So please check back in and take these maps with a grain of salt.  They are not the final forecast and shouldn't be treated that way.  I just wanted to give you a heads up and a nerdy look into the storm. 

Also to note... the first couple "winter storms" of the season tend to shift more North than what the models show.  BUT that is normally in November and December.  We have cooled down a lot and we will have to see if the models are grasping this one properly with our colder air, or if they will shift that band of snow more North.  So stay tuned.  I will have more to come in the days ahead.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

Sorry if there are typos... trying to crank this out before going home to take care of a sick wife and baby.


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