Balm By Buck

Balm By Buck
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Friday, January 30, 2015

Sunday's storm shifts north

I think I said about five times yesterday that staying up-to-date with the coming storm will be important... and that the NWS was going to send up another weather balloon in the storm to get a better idea.  With that additional data from the starting point of the storm, the models ALL shifted back to the northerly track.  This is nothing new for storms to change direction a little a few days out.  Think of it like bowling... a half a degree difference could mean a strike or gutter-ball...

Also, take the models with a grain of salt, I am not a hype person, but I like to show you what I take a look at...
Here is the weather balloon sounding from yesterday.  For most folks, this is mish-mash, but for computer models... this is like a coloring page where the lines are drawn and you just have to fill in the open spots.  So let's dive in...
IF, big IF, the models hold true to the last couple runs then that means warmer air will work into Southern Ohio and bring rain.  Just like last Sunday... 1° or 2° could mean the difference between a LOT of snow, or rain and then very little snow.  That is even more true with this storm because it is bringing so much more moisture.
So let's look at the latest forecast models.  The first one, above, is last night's NAM.  NAM has always been the most Northerly track of the storm.  (By the way, click the images to make them larger)
The evening model of the GFS also shifted back north.  The gray spikes are likely the model trying to incorporate some of the heat island effect from the cities in Dayton and Columbus.  Let's move on...
The morning NAM model, above, has even a sharper difference.  It has the rain/snow line parked RIGHT OVER I-70.  So Columbus seeing 6+", but Chillicothe seeing about 1".  Honestly... I HATE the snow/rain storms because that rain/snow line will be the main player in snow accumulations.  On we go...
The morning GFS went a tad more south compared to last evening's run.  But it still has a sharp cut-off the lower snowfall totals to the south because of the rain.
And lastly... the Euro from last night.  It is agreeing a lot with the morning GFS.  Again, we saw the shift within the last 24 hours and while I don't think we will see another dramatic shift that fast again, it is possible.  A very subtle change in direction will greatly affect us here in Central Ohio, since the storm is still enjoying its time in Arizona.  So please check back over the next couple days so that way you get the most up-to-date forecast....
Timing still looks the same with the snow starting around daybreak Sunday... keep snowing all day... and lasting into Sunday night.  So we will not see our snowfall totals until Monday morning.


Currently, no Winter Storm Warnings have been issued, but I do anticipate them to be issued within the upcoming day or two.  That's your Friday morning update... check back soon for another update.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

P.S. Now I go back to waiting at the dealership.  My wife's car had a recall and I have been blogging from next to a SWEET Camero...  They wouldn't let me blog from inside it.

2 comments:

  1. Thanks so much for keeping us up to date! Now you've made me want to grab a nice, hot cup of coffee!!
    -April from Amanda, Oh

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you for the updates! We're learning a lot about how difficult it is to track/predict a storm!! Stay safe all! ❄⛄

    ReplyDelete

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