Saturday, November 15, 2014

Rain/Snow mix coming tomorrow night.

This is what Monday morning at 4:30AM will look like for Central Ohio... Lots of rain and lots of snow.... The BIG question is where will that dividing line end up...
Sunday will be fair with Mostly cloudy skies and dry most of the day.  The rain/snow mix will arrive just after sundown.  The rain/snow mix will continue overnight and wrap up by mid-morning Monday.
This is the RPM model run.  It is keeping the heaviest snow just to the NW of I-71.  So the rain/snow line will be right along I-71 or a tad SE.
This is the NAM.  It has the storm shifted a little more east and the highest snowfall just to the SE of I-71.
The GFS is WAY east, by at least another 60 miles. GFS is going the coldest and that is why it is showing more snow than rain and higher totals as well... So not really buying into the GFS, but I wanted to show you how the models are disagreeing.
So this is what I am going with for now.  I think Generally the heaviest snow will be along the I-71 cooridor and then a little east of it for areas north of I-70.  If you see all snow and the rain is just a few miles away... you will be seeing the most snow.  As you move farther into the all snow areas then the totals will be lower as the precip will be lighter.  As soon as you move into the rain areas the snowfall totals will drop off drastically.  As long as the RPM (which was dead on a lot of last year) and NAM verify then far Southeastern Ohio will be lucky to see much in the way of accumulation.

Lot of moving parts here, and I will have another update tomorrow go get a better idea of surface temperatures right before it arrives... because then we can really pinpoint the heaviest snow because the difference of 1° or 2° could mean the difference of no snow and 4" of snow... So check back and enjoy your Sunday before it all arrives.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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