Monday, March 4, 2013

Update/Water bed anaology for the coming snow.

So there are two BIG changes.  The storm has shifted a little further south, but in doing that, it will likely push the warm air further north.  Kind of hard to wrap your mind around, but think of it like a waterbed.  You push down on one side and the water goes up on the other side...  Those two things will GREATLY affect how much snow you will see.  I really am not a huge fan of numbers for this system because if you stay all snow then you will be dealing with half a foot easily, but with the warm air, it will cause rain instead.
Here is one of the forecast models of snow, but I still think it is overdoing the snow a bit.

Here is the timing of the entire system.  We are already seeing sleet mixing with rain and snow at 11PM Monday night.  We will cool off a little more and see light snow/wintry mix the next few hours.  By Tuesday morning we will have a light coating, maybe an inch or so of snow.  Then we warm up and we switch to on and off rain showers through the middle part of the day.  The rain continues through the evening commute.  Then it gets interesting.  The sooner we switch to snow, the more snow will accumulate.  The models are having the switch from rain to snow from about 8-10PM for Western Ohio and then 10PM-12AM for Central Ohio.  The heaviest snow will fall a little further south than my earlier blog today.  Also keep in mind that the leading edge of the snow will likely melt on the wet, warm pavement.  The snow showers will continue through midday Wednesday and most of the accumulating snow will fall very early Wednesday morning before you likely wake up.
So here are the numbers I cooked up of what you can expect by Noon Wednesday.  Keep in mind that if the snow transitions earlier then what I mentioned here, then you will likely be on the higher end of the range, but if the rain to snow transition holds off until midnight or later then you will be on the lower end of the ranges here.  

Hope this helps, and feel free to comment on the blog, here.  I will respond to each and every question.  Thanks, be safe, and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael


  1. Hmmm, we have to attend a meeting tonight. There's an important vote and the officers are working on all of us to be there to make a quorum. Hmmm.

    1. I think your drive to the meeting will be just fine. It is the drive home that will be tricky. Travel safe.

  2. New models trending one way or another? What time u expect the switch to snow in Lewis Center, and how much?

    1. Right now it looks about the same timing as expected last night. I think for Lewis Center this which will happen sometime between 10 p.m. and midnight. as far as expected snowfall I would say the lower end of those totals from earlier. For Lewis Center somewhere between 2 and 4 inches.


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