Balm By Buck

Balm By Buck
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Sunday, March 3, 2013

Breakdown of Tuesday-Wednesday's Snow

The models have settled down a little and the images in this blog are pretty consistent with the forecast I have for today.  This will breakdown the entire event, based on the latest forecast models... but I am sure the numbers and timing will change some over the days to come... So take this with a grain of salt.  Pink represents ice or wintry mix, blue is snow, and green is rain.  White would be clouds.  As you can see in the image above, a little bit of the moisture will sneak in early Tuesday morning leaving us with a light coating in spots.  But then the temperatures will warm.
Scattered rain showers will develop into the middle part of the day and push north.  The big question is how far north.  The NAM model is all the way into Northern Ohio with rain, but most of the other models agree with just north of I-70 for the rain.
By 3PM the model is showing the transition over from rain to snow for Northwestern Ohio.
By 4PM it has the switch to snow all ready taking place in Dayton.
Above, you can see that the switch from rain to snow will be around 6PM for Columbus.  I have been going with a time frame of 5PM-9PM for Central Ohio.  Once we switch over most of the area will start off as snow.
By 10:30PM Tuesday nearly the entire state has fallen cold enough for snow.  You can notice the Northern part of Ohio getting the steady snow though after midnight.  The forecast model does a good job of showing the dry air pushing in for the Southwestern part of Ohio.

There will be a few lingering light snow showers Wednesday... possibly adding to another inch of snow.
So here are my current thoughts for forecasted snowfall totals by Wednesday at noon.  The Northern third of the state will be seeing the most snow... Just as thought yesterday.  The center third of Ohio (along I-70) will be in the middle ground, and then the south will see the least snow.  Some of the Southern portions of the state will see as little as an inch or less.  I can easily see the far Northwestern part of the state seeing half a foot, if not more. 

THERE ARE A LOT OF VARIABLES TO KEEP IN MIND:
  • The ground will be warm and wet from the rain Tuesday.(snow will melt at first)
  • How warm we get Tuesday. (1° means a LOT)
  • How far north the rain pushes Tuesday.
  • Timing of the rain to snow transition. (earlier would mean more snow)
  • The dry slot (dry air pushing in Tuesday night for SW Ohio)
  • The biggest variable of them all... Will the track of the storm stay the same.
I have Monday and Tuesday off of work and I will make sure to update the blog with any new developments or tracks of the system.  Even a subtle shift north or south will mean a big change. The one thing that ALL the models agree on... by this time, next weekend... we will likely be in the 50's!  Be sure to check back in and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

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