Balm By Buck

Balm By Buck
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Friday, March 2, 2012

UPDATED! Complete Breakdown of Severe Weather Today

I want to start out by saying that I will be adding more information to this as the day progresses, to feel free to share this with your friends and continue checking back in as more weather data becomes available and storms approach the area. I will be adding new information at the bottom, so check back and share on Facebook, Twitter, etc. The Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service currently has the Miami Valley under a moderate risk for severe weather for later today with large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes likely for areas in the area shaded red on the categorical outlook.
The tornado outlook from the SPC has the Miami Valley under a decent chance for tornadoes. The yellow indicates a 10% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius. The red indicates a 15% chance for a tornado within that 25 mile radius. The black hatched area indicates areas for long-lived strong tornadoes between EF2-EF5, which the Southern Miami Valley is part of. PLEASE take this very serious today and stay alert.While tornadoes will be the main worry for many people, we must not overlook the threat for large hail and damaging winds. The Miami Valley is under the 25 mile radius of a 45 % chance of damaging winds and large hail so keep that in mind. The storms today will have a LOT of mixing going on and when the storm decides to dump its contents, it will leave a mess behind.
For all the weather geeks out there I thought I would show a forecasted balloon sounding for 2PM in Dayton, OH for today. The hodograph in the upper left is a textbook example for supercell storms. The atmosphere will have plenty of shear if there are any storms during the late afternoon and early evening.
Speaking of timing, I made a new graphic today to show when the storms will be arriving and when our best chances for severe weather would be. I think between about 2PM and 7PM will be our best chances for severe weather, but storms possible outside of that window. Between 2PM and 7PM the atmosphere will have all the proper ingredients for severe weather. Things quiet down quickly heading into the overnight hours and that will leave us cooler for the weekend. Still not expecting any of the snow to stick Sunday. The temps will jump back up into the 50's later next week with dry conditions. Again, I will update this again a couple more times before storm mode hits in the weather center, so share this and check back. Stay safe, stay alert, and as always, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael
~~UPDATE 8:25AM~~
Storm Prediction Center upgraded to the FIRST High Risk of the year. Luckily it is to our south, but the Miami Valley is maintaining its Moderate Risk for severe storms...again, large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Here is the latest look at the 8AM tornado outlook. We have not changed a lot, but Kentucky has been bumped up. Very serious situation on tap. I hope to have another update before things really start firing. Have a plan if severe weather hits where you are. Buck


~~UPDATE 11:50AM~~
It appears the Storm Prediction Center is agreeing with what I was seeing earlier and now areas south of I-70 are now part of the HIGH RISK area for severe weather later today. No watches yet, but they intend on issuing them in a short time.Here is the tornado outlook... that has now put us in the 10% chance of EF2-EF5 within a 25 mile radius. The southern part of the area is in the 30% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius. This will be my last update, stay alert, I will be sending out warning updates for the station later so you can follow them on twitter at www.twitter.com/abc22fox45 Stay safe, Buck.

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