Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Wet, Stormy Wednesday

Strong to severe storms later today into this evening are expected.  We are only in a slight chance for severe weather, but still could get a little dicey later today, so here is the breakdown:

Our main threat will be damaging winds with most of the Miami Valley under a 15% chance for severe winds (60+ mph) within a 25 mile radius.  The best chance for stronger winds will be to our west and south.
West and south are also the best chance for hail.  We are also within the 15% chance for severe criteria hail, which is 1" diameter or larger.  Both the wind and hail are nothing too crazy and we normally see these kind of percentages with spring/summer thunderstorms.
The one thing we need to keep an eye on is our chance for tornadoes.  We are only in the 2% shaded region, but earlier this spring we were in the 2% chance and sure enough we had two tornadoes.  It is not a direct correlation, but will need to be watched closely.  The ingredients for widespread severe weather is not perfect today.

The storms will arrive in the late afternoon and evening.  They will move out of here overnight with maybe a lingering shower early tomorrow.  The good news is that today and tomorrow will be warm in the upper 60's.  Things will cool off for the weekend with highs in the mid-low 50's.  The next round of rain is set to arrive Friday night into Saturday.  We try to warm up a little early next week, but more rain late Monday into Tuesday.  So a pretty wet week ahead, and our best chance for dry weather will be later Thursday into early Friday and then later Sunday into early Monday.  Keep that umbrella and NOAA weather radio handy.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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