Wednesday, October 12, 2011


This time of the year it is always a good idea to keep an eye to the future...with a little hesitation. The forecast models have been pretty consistently showing MUCH colder air blasting into the area for next Wednesday. The image here is the forecast model for next Wednesday, 19th, in the evening. The blue line is the 850 mb line of below freezing temperatures, so we will be a couple degrees below freezing at 850 mb (pressure), which is about 0.75 miles above the surface. According to the models there will be a little moisture behind the strong cold front, so there is a SLIGHT chance for a flurry or two. It is a long way out, but we have about a 5% chance to see a few are my reasons why I doubt it currently: The first reason is that the first few cold blasts never turn out quite as cold as what the models forecast...they don't realize how warm we actually are, so we may be a little warmer than it shows. The second reason is that normally when we get those cold blasts of air, the air is too dry behind the cold front and it does not support much, if any, precipitation.

Keep in is still a long way out. My best analogy of forecasting is like bowling. Forecasting one day out is about like bowling down half the distance of a normal bowling alley lane...pretty easy to get a strike or at least a spare. Forecasting two days out is a normal length of a bowling lane. You can really do some damage. The further out you go, the harder it is to pinpoint EXACTLY what is going to happen. The model shown is eight days out, so there are a lot of variables still in play and will be monitored closely.

For the near future we will be keeping an eye on a few light showers this morning. The storm system across the East Coast has a few overflowing showers affecting the Eastern part of the Miami Valley this morning. They are fairly light and will lift out of here by the afternoon. Tomorrow we will have a cold front push through the area that will bring a few thunderstorms. There is still a slight chance for those storms to be strong to severe. The threat will be strong winds and hail with the storms and once they are through it will leave us much cooler for the end of the week. Highs around 60 for Friday and Saturday. Sunshine will return for the the weekend with a few clouds as well. We look to slowly warm before the cold blast, the middle of next week. Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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