The recent afternoon models have come out and I think that our area could see slightly more than first anticipated. My thoughts on the forecast totals will be around 3-5" by Friday morning. About 2-4" by Thursday night and then an additional inch overnight as long as we are in the lake effect band. We will be seeing a very high snow to rain ratio, meaning the colder and drier the air is, the more fluffier the snow will be and it will not pack very easily. This means more air pockets will be in between the snow flakes and it wont compress as it would if we were closer to the freezing level. Scientifically, instead of the common 10 inches of snow to one inch of water, it may be closer to 15 inches of snow to once inch of water. Our predicted liquid precip through Friday morning is about 0.29, and if that holds true and we see the 15-1 ratio, we could be seeing about 4 inches.
The latest trends on the models are showing the heaviest snow from around 11 AM until 4 PM. Road crews may have an extra challenge on keeping up with the falling snow during these hours.
Now obviously some areas will be in the lighter bands of snow and not see the full amount others will, so keep in mind 3-5" does not mean you will see the 5", you may only see the 3" and other areas seeing the heavier snow will be seeing the 5". Winds will not be as strong Thursday as what they will be Friday, where blowing and drifting snow will be a big problem.
Make sure to keep Dayton's News Source, ABC 22 and FOX 45, on all day tomorrow for all the latest. Travel safe, keep warm, and as always: Have a good one!
Andrew Buck Michael