Well this system is knocking on our doorstep... The precip will move in very shortly, but temps right now are barely above freezing, so we could see a little mixed precip to start off this system. The rain will be heavy at times through Thursday night and we could see close to 2, maybe 3 inches, of just rain across the Miami Valley, so flooding is a big concern. There is actually a Flood Watch for the entire area from tonight until Thursday night. There looks to be a brief break in the rain during the late morning and early afternoon on Thanksgiving, but we will also need to keep an eye on the chances for severe weather. Right now there isn't a huge threat, but with these systems bringing in such a drastic change of weather, and with the warm front lifting through tomorrow, we could see a little wind shear(differences in direction and speed of winds with height in the atmosphere). The temps will plummet heading into Friday morning and right now the temps look to fall below freezing around 3-6 AM on Friday. This will cause two problems: the first is the chance for snow, the second will be the chance for freezing bridges and overpasses. Well there is a third, some drivers acting crazy to get the Black Friday deals and being oblivious to the conditions.
The ground is still very warm and it is not likely that much of the snow will stick to the surfaces of pavement. If it comes down quick enough it may stay a short time, but if we see the accumulation stick to anything, it would be the bridges, grass, mulch, or cold cars. Basically anything that can cool off the fastest. With the rain coming first, it will make the first bit of snow melt, and I would have to say, right now, I would not expect much more than half an inch. So it will be light, but hopefully people do not take it lightly. It doesn't take much for drivers to get into an accident during the first snowfall. Regardless, I will keep an eye on the situation and will keep this updated with the latest forecast models. Have a good one.
Andrew Buck Michael