The first system arriving tonight looks to hold together. Most of the area should see 1-2" with some isolated spots, mainly south and east of Dayton getting a little more. It should start this evening, maybe as a light sprinkle first then turn quickly to snow, and last through Saturday night. This will be the first accumulation of snow this season, so take it easy on the roadways, accelerate slowly and give yourself plenty of room to stop.
They next system clipping us on Monday will be staying a little farther to the north. We could still see a dusting or up to an inch of snow from Sunday night into Monday evening.
The biggest of the changes is coming with the system later next week. As I said yesterday the rain/snow line was very near our area. The last three models have indicated that we will be warmer than what they were showing yesterday. This means that instead of the Miami Valley seeing the first snow "storm" of the season, right now it is showing a lot of rain on Christmas Eve and temperatures getting near or into the 40's. This will melt a lot, if not all, of the snow on the ground from tomorrow and Monday. It will need to be watched closely in the coming days to see how the track of the storm progresses. I will say this, the fact that the models have not consistently been able to grasp the storm means that it still is a little to early to said without question whether it will be a snow or rain event. With that said, the latest of the models are showing rain on Christmas Eve and a few lingering snow showers and flurries for Christmas. I will update this frequently in the coming days, as always.
7 days left!!!
Andrew Buck Michael