Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Snow next week???

I am not surprised since we are over the halfway point in October, but the forecast models are showing a HINT of snow for next week.  The snow, circled in red above, would be for the afternoon Wednesday... and the models are showing even a better chance of snow for Wednesday night(in the image below)  Right now I am not buying it yet, and I will tell you why.  
 The above map shows next Wednesday night (technically 2AM Thursday) as a STRONG blast of cold air is expected.  It is still 7+ days out.  I have used the analogy before... forecasting is a LOT like bowling.  A one day forecast is like bowling half the length of a bowling lane... hitting a strike or at least a spare is pretty easy.  Two days out is the regulation length... still possible to hit a strike.  When you go 7 days out there are a LOT more variables and it would be like bowling the length of three and a half regulation bowling lanes.  The ball may start spinning one way or the other.  That being said... we are entering fall.  The low that you see by Pittsburgh is a clipper system.  It will race down from Canada and this is the kind of system that brings some of our light snowfall totals over winter.  The models always love to bring them further south than what actually pans out.  They always tend to ride further north in real life than the models indicate.  So the freezing line as far south as Tennessee... I don't buy that yet.  We need to see if the models shift(and they always do), but next week definitely has me watching. 
Even a peak at the European model, above, shows some flurries for next Thursday afternoon.(Above image is for 2PM next Thursday)  It also is showing the 540 line(for our sake we will call it the freezing line) as far south as Tennessee as well.  It will be interesting to see how it all pans out. Snow is a polarizing topic.  Some people love it, some people hate it... some people love it for a month then hate it.  I love forecasting winter systems because the difference of 1°F will mean the snow changes to rain.  LOVE IT!  It is a great challenge.  So stay tuned... I will have daily updates.
As for the next 7 days(cuz we have to get through them first...) Tonight we are already seeing some clearing.  I snapped this photo on my way to dinner.  The sky looked like it was on fire over Broadcast Lake.  The clearing tonight will allow our temperatures to fall into the mid 40's overnight.  Our highs bounce around the 60 degree mark for the next six says with lows in the mid to low 40's as well.  As far as the chance for rain... We could see an isolated shower or two tomorrow, Thursday, and again on Saturday.  We will stay dry for Friday and again on Sunday and most of the day Monday.  Another cold front will swing through Monday night into early Tuesday bringing more rain... and then... Wednesday is the big iffy.  Like I said, I will keep an eye on it, but for right now, still thinking rain, but maybe some snowflakes mixing in for the far Northern portions of Ohio.  Check back in and have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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