Wonderful Weekend and Wedding

Dawn's cousin got married Saturday in Cleveland at the Old Historic Courthouse and the wedding was unbelievably fun. The inside of the building as all marble...even the spiral staircases...beautiful. It is amazing how the entire building can stand only by marble alone. The wedding was great, the food was tasty, and the band was a blast! A special congrats to Beth and Ryan Cummins.

The weather was great the entire weekend as well. A few clouds rolled in late Sunday, but other than that... no problems all weekend. We are seeing rain this morning that will stick around the Miami Valley through the day with a few rain showers and maybe a rumble of thunder in the afternoon. Nothing to crazy, but it will be a wet start to the week...and mild as well, high in the mid 60's. The rest of the 7-day forecast... 70's for highs... yea, 70's. It is hard to believe that it will be the last full week of winter. We will deal with the rain today and that will leave tonight. Then we dry out until late Thursday, Friday, and Saturday when rain returns. That means that Saturday, St. Patrick's Day, could be a little wet, but we will hope to fine-tune that rain in the days to come. Break out the shorts and flip-flops for the rest of the week, but you will need the umbrella today. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

The little things in life...clean(er) garage

Over the last few months we have let cardboard boxes overtake the garage. The garage is too narrow for a car to part in there comfortably so Dawn and I park outside. Anyway we had about a 60 boxes, dozens of magazines, and other recyclable materials...and it is all out on the curb. Before the image would only be cardboard...you couldn't see Dawn's Barbie car or my mopeds, or the floor...it got pretty bad. We had boxes from Christmas gifts still and a lot of boxes from Dawn's job when they ship her new hand-outs for her school talks. It took quite a while to break it all down, but just like hand-washing the dishes every evening...I can rest a lot easier...and I did. It seemed that the last few months it always rains or snow Thursday night but I had no excuse last evening not to break all the cardboard down and recycle it. I am going to reorganize the garage next week when I have some time to pull everything out and move it all around to optimize the space.

Buckeye went to the vet and had all of his stitches removed except for three. They said one section still looked iffy so they said to bring him back Monday. I can't wait for him to finish healing, and I am sure he feels the same way. It looks like we will have to leave the cone on him this weekend when we kennel him for the wedding. I hate to do it, but it is the only way to guarantee he doesn't inflame the area any more.

Definitely a cooler morning today. Temperatures are sitting in the lower 30's with mostly clear skies. We are trying to keep an eye to the skies to see if we can spot some Aurora Borealis. Mix of sun and clouds today with a high in the mid 40's. Plenty of sunshine for Saturday with a high near 50 and then 60 for Sunday with more clouds later Sunday. The rain looks to hold off until early Monday morning now and then a few rain showers mid week as well as temperatures continue to climb into the mid-upper 60's. So today will be the coolest day, but still not too bad. Enjoy your weekend and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Big changes for your Dayton Allergy Report

Yesterday in my blog I mentioned how my allergies were WAY out of control for the first day this year(I get horrible allergies the beginning of spring allergy season). I did an allergy report yesterday and there were only 9 tree pollen spores on the allergy report, no big deal right?! The way it works is that the Regional Air Pollution Control Agency has a sensor that collects spores for 24 hours and they get their readings about 9AM every single day. So the allergy report for yesterday, Wednesday, was actually from Tuesday. Well today's report.... 842 tree pollen spores, which registers in the "High" category. The dry and windy conditions really kicked up the tree pollen...and the above normal temperatures helped it as well. Now I don't feel as weird for having all my issues yesterday. So if you are feeling the affects, I am right there with you.

On a side note, Buckeye gets his stitches out today. The eight inch suture has healed up really well, but the bottom is not as completely healed because he irritates the area due to moving around a lot still, but the top majority of it looks great. I hope the vet gives him the "all clear" and we are good to go. I need to find out what we can do with him because he will probably need to go to the kennel this weekend while we are at a wedding in Cleveland.

Rain is moving into the area this morning. A cold front in Illinois will move through around midday and that's what is triggering some of these rain showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two around noon as the front moves through, but no severe weather expected. The rain will mainly be here for the morning, afternoon will begin to dry out. We are in the upper 50's right now, but temps will fall into the afternoon. Tomorrow will slowly clear and will be a little cooler, but seasonal with a high of 45. We will see plenty of sunshine on Saturday as temperatures warm up to 50, then more clouds by Sunday with a high in the upper 50's. Rain will be arriving later Sunday and showers lingering through Monday and Tuesday. The temperatures will continue to warm into the mid 60's by the middle of next week...and right now St. Patty's Day, next Saturday, is looking very warm. Grab the umbrella and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Kittens and sand

The allergy report has very little pollen, but whatever is out there, it is REALLY bothering me. It feels like cats are angrily scratching at my eyes while a bucket of sand is being poured into them. I just want to put a cube of ice on my eye lids then duct tape my eyes shut. Soooo irritated. I think this year may be my first year visiting an allergist because if this is only the start of March, it really shows that my body will not be able to handle early mornings and allergies like this. I normally get mild allergies, especially the start of spring, but this is the worst so far.

I am hoping that rain tomorrow will help with my allergies, but today the dry and windy conditions will not help. We will get into the mid 60's today with a mix of sun and clouds. Rain arrives just before daybreak tomorrow and rain showers will stick around for mainly the first half of the day. We could have a few rumbles of thunder, but nothing severe expected. We will cool off a little, 57 tomorrow, 50 Friday, then start a warming trend slowly...52 Saturday, and then mid to upper 50's next week. We will stay dry until later Sunday when rain rolls back into the area for early next week. Enjoy the dry warm weather, or if you are like me...look forward to the rain to knock some of this pollen down. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Moped build update: e50 rebuilds

The builds are moving along pretty well. The bikes are soooo much lighter when you remove the motor. Both motors were in great condition and runners before I started my rebuilds. They were a little dirty, but that will be addressed during the rebuilds.This was first time I cracked the case on the Metrakit motor and as I said before, the case was not case matched to the cylinder very much, so there was a big performance lacking due to that.My wife was out of town Saturday for a few hours so I took that time to take put on new bearings on my gears and cranks. Things went VERY smooth and no major issues at all....heat the bearings, freeze the cranks/gears and you are golden. I also started the case matching on both the Polini and Metrakit cases.My good friend, Sam Babcock, made me this awesome engine case stand. It worked out great while case matching with both halves together standing upright, but the bolt holes also worked out perfect to put the case on its side when I needed to fine-tune the case matching. The fact that the steel is nearly half an inch thick on the stand means that it isn't moving anywhere, even without bolting it down.Love this little stand. After trying to port or case match before without a motor stand I know both sides of the fence and using the stand works out great. Since the cases are nearly complete I figured I should try to clean up the rest of the case. I tried shinning up the clutch covers and it looks a lot better with the new shine instead of the 30 year old scuffs. I doubt I will get it to shine like new, but at least it isn't as scruffy. I have been focusing part of my time on the engines and other cosmetics on the bike. Since these bikes will be bikes that I plan on keeping forever, I wanted to make sure they are getting the top-notch treatment. I wanted to run a temp gauge to make sure I am not seizing. The speedo is essentially useless because I keep snapping the speedo cables by going faster than the speedo can handle. I plan on running GPS for speed through the Mag Dash bolt holes and this means I could play with the speedo housing. I chopped off the back side of the metal cup, trimmed some excess and flipped it inside the cup to mount the temp sensor. I also had to cut a little bigger hole in the speedo front plate for the sensor and luckily the odometer hole was the proper width, just had to raise it. I do need to clean up the back of it a little and plan on running a piece of wood or steel to stabilize the gauge a little more. One done, one to go for my other bike. So the bikes are slowly coming along. It is kinda hard to tackle two full builds at the same time, but I hope to have at least one bike, Magnum, finished within the next two weeks.

The weather looks great for today. We will get into the mid 50's today with plenty of sunshine and then 60 for the high tomorrow with a few more afternoon clouds. Rain returns Thursday and then highs in the low 50's for the end of the week and start of the weekend. Another round or rain looks to return to the area by early next week, but the timing on that system is a little hairy. Models can't agree yet, so I am not pulling the trigger yet because I am not confident in the timing of that system...but at least it does look like we will warm back into the upper 50's by then. Enjoy the beautiful weather and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Storm Recap for March 3rd, 2012 & Morning Snow

To say that we lucked out here in the Miami Valley is an understatement. In my blog updates from Friday it was quite clear that areas to our south would have the best chance for more severe weather. Sure enough, JUST south of our viewing area the atmosphere let loose and ripped up peoples homes and lives with tornadoes packing winds over 200 mph. In all on Friday there were reports of over 115 tornadoes, but luckily we did not have any touchdown here in the area, just a few tornado warnings for rotation tightening up within a few storm cells. Jeff Booth and I were on-air for about 50 minutes with the warnings, but again, we dodged a bullet. My thoughts and prayers goes out to those to our south that are left to pick up the pieces.One thing not helping them pick-up is the snow. They will be seeing 1-3" of snow just to our south, but here in the Miami Valley, only about a dusting. I had to brush off the dusting this morning and the roads were not tooooo bad, but the bridges were ice and snow covered. The ground temperatures kept the snow from sticking, but where the air can get under the bridge it really helped the snow stick. There are reports on the scanner of dozens of spin-outs on the highways, so if you are reading this before leaving the house, be careful.

The snow should end shortly and maybe only a flurry or two for the first half of the day then a little clearing and cool, high 36. Mostly sunny the next few days as we warm into the 50's and maybe even 60 by Wednesday. Rain returns later this week with highs in the 50's and then mild for the weekend and looking to stay mostly dry. Back to the forecast and tracking all of these accidents... Just heard 75 N and Edwin C. Moses has a three car accident, a police cruiser spun-out, and even 2 jack-knifed semis... gonna be a crazy morning...good thing I cranked this out already. Drive safe and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

UPDATED! Complete Breakdown of Severe Weather Today

I want to start out by saying that I will be adding more information to this as the day progresses, to feel free to share this with your friends and continue checking back in as more weather data becomes available and storms approach the area. I will be adding new information at the bottom, so check back and share on Facebook, Twitter, etc. The Storm Prediction Center with the National Weather Service currently has the Miami Valley under a moderate risk for severe weather for later today with large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes likely for areas in the area shaded red on the categorical outlook.
The tornado outlook from the SPC has the Miami Valley under a decent chance for tornadoes. The yellow indicates a 10% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius. The red indicates a 15% chance for a tornado within that 25 mile radius. The black hatched area indicates areas for long-lived strong tornadoes between EF2-EF5, which the Southern Miami Valley is part of. PLEASE take this very serious today and stay alert.While tornadoes will be the main worry for many people, we must not overlook the threat for large hail and damaging winds. The Miami Valley is under the 25 mile radius of a 45 % chance of damaging winds and large hail so keep that in mind. The storms today will have a LOT of mixing going on and when the storm decides to dump its contents, it will leave a mess behind.
For all the weather geeks out there I thought I would show a forecasted balloon sounding for 2PM in Dayton, OH for today. The hodograph in the upper left is a textbook example for supercell storms. The atmosphere will have plenty of shear if there are any storms during the late afternoon and early evening.
Speaking of timing, I made a new graphic today to show when the storms will be arriving and when our best chances for severe weather would be. I think between about 2PM and 7PM will be our best chances for severe weather, but storms possible outside of that window. Between 2PM and 7PM the atmosphere will have all the proper ingredients for severe weather. Things quiet down quickly heading into the overnight hours and that will leave us cooler for the weekend. Still not expecting any of the snow to stick Sunday. The temps will jump back up into the 50's later next week with dry conditions. Again, I will update this again a couple more times before storm mode hits in the weather center, so share this and check back. Stay safe, stay alert, and as always, have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

~~UPDATE 8:25AM~~

Storm Prediction Center upgraded to the FIRST High Risk of the year. Luckily it is to our south, but the Miami Valley is maintaining its Moderate Risk for severe storms...again, large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

Here is the latest look at the 8AM tornado outlook. We have not changed a lot, but Kentucky has been bumped up. Very serious situation on tap. I hope to have another update before things really start firing. Have a plan if severe weather hits where you are. Buck

~~UPDATE 11:50AM~~

It appears the Storm Prediction Center is agreeing with what I was seeing earlier and now areas south of I-70 are now part of the HIGH RISK area for severe weather later today. No watches yet, but they intend on issuing them in a short time.Here is the tornado outlook... that has now put us in the 10% chance of EF2-EF5 within a 25 mile radius. The southern part of the area is in the 30% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius. This will be my last update, stay alert, I will be sending out warning updates for the station later so you can follow them on twitter at www.twitter.com/abc22fox45 Stay safe, Buck.

Severe Storms Returning

There have been 30 reports of tornadoes over the last two days... more likely returning soon. I will get to more in that in the forecast, but Friday afternoon and evening looks to be very active here in the Ohio Valley, but I could have told you that a year ago...because it is the same date as Ohio State's Ohio Severe Weather Symposium.My moped rebuilds are coming along. While the bodies and cosmetics are nearly complete, the motor rebuilding is my next step. I cracked open both engine cases yesterday and removed all the seals and bearings so I can put on new ones for the upcoming season. I also need to case match the cylinders with the engine cases. I was surprised that one of the motors with the 65cc Metrakit was not case matched before by the previous owner. Got to love fresh engine cases! I may also need to look into a new piston for that because there is a little smearing on the piston. I have soft seized the cylinder twice, but that is the benefit of the cast iron bore of the Metrakit...you can just sand out any high spots in the cylinder and keep blasting. So I have a little cosmetic work on the Metrakit, but the Polini is brand new and will only need a little cleaning on the ports. I hope to have these bolted back together within a week or so.

Alright, back to the forecast. Today will be pretty nice. Partly cloudy, breezy, and mild with a high near 50. Tomorrow a cold front will be approaching the area, again, but not before we get into the mid 60's after an early Friday warm front. The cold front late Friday will be stronger and will bring a more significant chance for severe weather from the Tennessee Valley up to the Ohio Valley. We will be monitoring the storms for strong winds, hail, and even tornadoes possible. With the deaths from tornadoes earlier this week I want to remind those that do not have one, NOAA Weather Radios are a GREAT idea to have. They cost less than half a tank of gas and have saved many lives, especially during the night time storms. They are readily available at many stores and completely worth the small price. The storms will be ahead of the cold front and the timing of the action looks to be in the afternoon and evening with things quieting down by after midnight-ish Friday night. The timing is once again perfect with the Ohio State's Ohio Severe Weather Symposium. The symposium used to be in April, but they moved it to March so that way all the visitors were not torn between their severe weather duties and the great program and speakers put on by Ohio State's Meteorology Club. It never fails that we get severe weather the same day, so I am not surprised. The weekend will be cooler with highs near 40 and a chance for snow showers later Sunday. The models have shown about an inch of snow, but the ground is way too warm for any snow to stick. If we get a heavy snow shower it may stay shortly, but not enough for any winter fun. Temperatures will bounce back quickly next week with high pressure and sunshine taking over once again. I will be back tomorrow with another update on the forecast, but until then enjoy the great weather today and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael