Balm By Buck

Balm By Buck
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Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Severe weather expected for Ohio

Always a good day when I get to see Sky6.  I had to run over and swap out video cards with the pilot yesterday.
I was also invited back to Ohio State last night to offer my thoughts on the $330+ Million revamping of North Campus.  While the buildings are set and construction has started on the structures the brainstorming session was what they can do to better the students experience, especially in the residence halls.  It was great to be back on campus and throw ideas around with previous RAs and help shape a HUGE change to the campus.  Honored that they asked me to come back.
So I always love getting good weather questions and the one above got me thinking... and I did a little extra research.
It may feel like a "quick switch" but what we are seeing is fairly common.

I made this image above to compare the last 5 years.
-2012 was a VERY warm winter.
-2010 was a very cool spring.

But other than the fact that this winter, 2014, was colder than normal, the temperatures for late spring are very close to what we saw in 2011 and 2013. So the shift was not super drastic once you average out the entire season. We just remember this winter as much colder because of the few very cold days.

So on to our current weather set-up.  we had a few severe storms move through the Southern viewing area.  Athens County was the first with a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, but never heard any problems with the storm.  The image above was from a viewer in Waverly, OH.  You can see the shelf cloud about to arrive.
Another viewer sent in this picture of tree limbs down on Gordon Ave in Waverly.
While we were not in the "Slight Risk" area today, they did say there was the chance a few of the storms may just skirt into the severe criteria.  Tomorrow is another story...
Tomorrow, Wednesday, June 4th, we are in the Slight Risk area for severe storms.
As a matter of fact, they have Southern Ohio in the Significant Severe category and they said they may upgrade the Ohio Valley up to Moderate Risk for tomorrow.
The atmosphere in Southern Ohio will have GREAT shear for storms and that's the reason for Significant Severe.
Take a look at the wind direction as you would go up in the atmosphere.  That is classic rotation with respect to elevation.  So any rising air... or updraft... will easily start to rotate tomorrow.  Wind speed also is REALLY fast about 20,000 feet up.  That will help pull the air up.  Good recipe for severe storms.   
So the above image is FutureRadar from the WRF forecast model for Noon and there looks to be some midday rain showers and storms.  While they may get strong and just barely severe, the main threat will be later.
The main time-frame for severe storms looks to be between 3PM and 9PM tomorrow.  The above image is for 7PM tomorrow.  You can see the isolated cells and that is where tornadic storms will be possible... the individual cells will sustain a rotating updraft better than a line of storms.   Large hail and strong winds are also likely in these cells.  Regardless of what you experience, be sure to take the weather serious tomorrow.  Make sure to share the information with others as well to make sure they know.

The good news...  Humidity then drops and Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will have plenty of sunshine and cooler temps.  More rain by Sunday... but let's enjoy the sun before then. ;)

I will have another update on here tomorrow morning so be sure to check back.  Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

UPDATE

Just recieved this email from a viewer: James Rose in Piketon, OH
"High winds uprooted this tree from storm earlier"

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