Balm By Buck

Balm By Buck
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Tuesday, May 5, 2015

School talk and Tornado Warning today

I had a school talk at Grace Community School in Delaware today.  Lots of fun.
Bill Kelly was LIVE from Westerville... so that means...
A tornado warning would pop up.  Luckily no reports of a touchdown yet.  It was indicated on radar that the storm had some rotation, but again, nothing reported to have touched down so far.
Upped the temps a little for the next two days.  Kept a 40% chance of rain for Wednesday, but weak high pressure for Thursday through Saturday.  While that may limit convection, the lingering, hidden outflow boundaries could trigger pop-ups.  This was evident today with a Tornado Warning in Crawford County.

Euro still keeps high pressure fairly dominant on Sunday until 0z Monday, but GFS has rain working in by 18z Sunday.  I went with a 30% chance of rain then 40% on Monday with outflow from approaching cold front and then up to a 60% because all models agreeing the cold front looks to pass on Tuesday. 

If we stay dry tomorrow, the high reached will help fine-tune the highs for the coming higher-pressured days, but for now feel pretty confident keeping things at 84 for the coming days.  Not a lot of WAA from the SW, so it is a pretty stagnant air mass in place.   If we can get some storms to pop tomorrow, it could keep some boundaries for Thursday-Saturday, but if we stay fairly dry then rain will be more limited.    (Personally... this is my favorite time of the year to forecast... watching for boundaries on satellite and using more synoptic observation to make a forecast)

Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

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