Tuesday, May 5, 2015
School talk and Tornado Warning today
Euro still keeps high pressure fairly dominant on Sunday until 0z Monday, but GFS has rain working in by 18z Sunday. I went with a 30% chance of rain then 40% on Monday with outflow from approaching cold front and then up to a 60% because all models agreeing the cold front looks to pass on Tuesday.
If we stay dry tomorrow, the high reached will help fine-tune the highs for the coming higher-pressured days, but for now feel pretty confident keeping things at 84 for the coming days. Not a lot of WAA from the SW, so it is a pretty stagnant air mass in place. If we can get some storms to pop tomorrow, it could keep some boundaries for Thursday-Saturday, but if we stay fairly dry then rain will be more limited. (Personally... this is my favorite time of the year to forecast... watching for boundaries on satellite and using more synoptic observation to make a forecast)
Have a good one!
Andrew Buck Michael