Thursday, April 3, 2014

Storms on the way: timing & threat

Feel free to click the image above to enlarge it.  The top is the overall outlook.  The bottom left is the Tornado probability with the Wind probability in the middle and the Hail probability to the far right.  Each percentage is for a twenty five mile radius of a single location.  So you can see that in SW Ohio there is a 15% chance of severe criteria hail (1" or larger) and 15% chance of severe winds (58 mph or stronger) within a given location.  I am explaining this in a little more depth since this is our first real chance for severe weather for Spring.  Most of the severe weather today will stay down toward the Mississippi Valley area.  Central Ohio will only see storms near or just below severe criteria.  It will still need to be taken serious.

All of this on the 40th anniversary of the Super Outbreak of 1974, which was when the F5 tornado destroyed Xenia, Ohio.  I know they have a special ceremony held there tonight and I hope they can dodge the worst of the weather for the event.

As far as timing of the rain...  Central Ohio is currently seeing the first wave of rain, which you can see in the radar above.  This is the warm air lifting into the region and no severe weather is expected with that.  This rain is lifting to the northwest currently.  The second wave in Illinois is what I am watching for this afternoon.  This is where some strong winds may be forming, if not even a few cells ahead of that line.  The rain we are currently seeing will take some energy out of the atmosphere, but the break between the two systems will re-energize wave two a little more.
Above is the FutureRadar for Noon.  (I think it is pushing the system along rather fast)  You notice the break in the rain, or re-energizing are is across Southwestern Ohio.  Which is exactly where they have the better chance for severe weather.
FutureRadar also has the entire system out of Ohio by nearly 7PM, which is what is pictured above.  This is only the first two waves of the storm.  Overnight and into early tomorrow the third and final wave of the system will roll through.
Above is for 8AM Friday.  The final wave of storms could also be severe, so keep your guard up early tomorrow as well.  As of right now, the rain may be out of here this evening and for the start of the overnight time frame between waves two and three... Might be a nice evening for a walk... or head to the Columbus Clippers home opener... ;) ;)  Weekend is looking fantastic with highs in the 50's and lots of sun.  Have a good one!

Andrew Buck Michael

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