Pleasure reading

Some people enjoy Harry Potter, some enjoy romance novels...but for us weather geeks, we enjoy reading the advancements in radar technology. The big change coming to a radar near you is called dual-pole. When radio frequencies were sent out in the past it was only sent out a horizontal radio wave and measure bounce-back radio waves in a horizontal plane. Dual-polarization will now send out the original horizontal radio wave AND a vertical radio wave. This will now be able to determine if we are seeing hail within storms and also pick out errors and get less "ground clutter." We can also start picking up bugs on the radar and other objects like birds, buildings, etc. The good news is that with this new advancement you can now remove data that is incorrect and clean up the radar to only show precipitation. The National Weather Service radar in Wilmington is scheduled to get the upgrade in the fall of 2012. It takes about a week for the upgrade and as a weather geek I am excited for the technology and excited to learn even more about it in my new book, Radar For Meteorologists by Rinehart.Today is still on tap for the warmest day of the month and year. We should get into the upper 50's with rain returning tonight. It should arrive just before midnight and the light rain showers will move out of here pretty quickly. By mid-morning tomorrow most of the rain will be out of here. Temps will top out in the mid 50's tomorrow and then upper 40's for the rest of the week and weekend. With temps in the upper 40's for the weekend it looks like our chance for snow is melting away. The track of the system still is on the move but the last day's worth of models do not show us getting any of the snow, based on its track. We may see a few light rain showers over the weekend, but hey...with temps in the 50's and upper 40's...bring on the light rain showers. I will monitor the system in the coming days because nothing is set in stone yet. Enjoy the warmth and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snowy Weekend in Cleveland

I must apologize for missing the blog on Friday. I was on the phone with our tech support for three hours during the morning show Friday and then had a meeting immediately afterward until close to 1 PM. I was running around like a chicken with my head cut off, figuratively speaking obviously. We had two small rounds of winter weather over the weekend. From the looks of the photos I received they were less than an inch each...which is what I was forecasting in my last blog on Thursday. We did see a little more snow north in Cleveland, where I was visiting the in-laws. The commute home last night was a little slippery in spots, but once we hit Columbus, and were on I-70, we were golden.

Buckeye may need to go to the vet today. The last few times we have visited Dawn's parents he frantically wants to get out of the bathroom, which is where we leave him when we leave the house for a few hours. Buckeye was originally Dawn's family dog, but once Dawn and her brother moved out for school we adopted him since no one was home to let him outside. He has not had any issues the first nine years of his life, then all of a sudden he does. He scratches at the door until he ends up hurting his paws and bleeds a little, very sad. Well we were gone less than an hour on Friday for dinner and he scratched so hard that he did not use his left front paw the rest of the weekend. He limped around the house and was very docile. We are taking him to the vet today to get him checked out, but it is very weird why all of a sudden he doesn't want to lay on the blanket we always leave for him. It may be in his old age that he is having separation issues. It breaks your heart to see him limping around on three legs though.

On to the spring forecast...for the end of January. Temperatures will be VERY warm for the end of the month. Today we will see clouds early with more sun later and a high in the upper 40's. Tuesday a little of the opposite with increasing clouds later and a high of 57, yes, 57! Rain arrives into the overnight hours heading into Wednesday and that will cool off our temps a little with highs in the mid 50's. The rain will end through the day on Wednesday and then we will be followed by mild temps in the mid 40's for the end of the week. The upcoming weekend looks very interesting. There is a system that the models have been showing coming through with a little more moisture than the last few wintry systems. The big question is the track of the coming system. Over the weekend the models trended toward the system affecting the east coast rather than us, but similar to last week, the last couple of model runs show the system coming right up the west side of the Appalachian mountains, which would mean a wet weekend. Still need a lot to nail down in the coming days, so enjoy the warm weather while it's here and I will worry about the weekend. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Early morning ice, late morning rain

This radar image was grabbed at 4:30AM today and you can see that we are dealing with a mixed bag of precip this morning. Temperatures are just below freezing at 31 degrees currently in Dayton. The rain overnight has limited the ice sticking and the rain will help melt any sleet or freezing rain falling. The good news is that temperatures will slowly warm through the morning and we will switch to all rain by late morning. The rain will kick out of here later and we could see a few flurries overnight tonight. Temperatures will be pretty cool heading into the weekend, 39 for the high today, 41 tomorrow, 37 Saturday, and then a cold 30 degrees for the high Sunday. Temperatures will quickly warm into the mid 40's next week. We could see a few flurries tonight & a few flurries over the weekend, but after today not much precip until the middle of next week. Watch out for a few slick spots this morning and then heavy rain later...gotta get back to the news to keep an eye on conditions. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

SUPER tired, but Gong Xi Fa Cai!

I am more tired this morning than any recent morning I can remember. Dawn and I were invited to a Chinese New Year celebration for the year of the dragon. We met up with our group and took a party bus to the restaurant. It was a lot of fun but lasted a few hours longer than what we thought, so I got about ninety minutes of sleep last night. I luckily was able to use "Gong Xi Fa Cai" which is how you say Happy New Year...a co-worker taught me that and figured I better learn how to properly pronounce it. The two people in the photo are friends of our group and family with the head chef at the restaurant. The big accomplishment of the night...I only used chopsticks.

Weather looks pretty quiet today. Increasing clouds with a high around 37. Rain showers arrive tonight and will last through the day tomorrow. Tomorrow morning we will drop near freezing so there is a chance for a few icy spurts. Temperatures will warm up through the day tomorrow so if there is any wintry mix it will melt quickly with the falling rain. After tomorrow we look to be pretty dry for the most part. Highs will bounce around in the low 40's and 30's heading through the weekend and next week, but dipping briefly on Sunday as a cold front blasts through with a high of 28. We could see a few flurries Sunday as the cold front swings through, but only a very slight chance. Back to the news...and back to my coffee. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Moped Video

I had some free time yesterday so I compiled some of my moped video and put together a little clip of the DAM Riders. None of the video was shot specifically for this, but just wanted to put together a little clip of what I had. Can't wait to shoot video specifically for our moped rally trailer.

Weather looks pretty calm for today. A little breezy and cool with highs near 40 with a mix of sun and clouds. Similar tomorrow with a few more clouds as rain approaches for Thursday. Thursday morning we will be near freezing so we could see a brief spell of a wintry mix...still a little far out to, but I am leaning a little more towards rain for most of the area and only a slight chance for the wintry mix. Temps will remain in the low 40's through the first half of the weekend then a slight chance for light snow as a cold front moves through with colder conditions next week with highs back in the lower 30's. All in all, a much calmer pattern than we saw the last week...no sleet, freezing rain, snow, thunderstorms, watches, wind advisories...I will take it! Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Overnight storms

The storms overnight rolled through and luckily not a lot of damage here in Ohio, other than a few power outages. There were reports of at least twenty tornadoes across the Southern US, but here in Ohio we only had strong winds around 45-50 miles per hour, which is just below the severe weather criteria of 58 mph. So by 5AM the threat moved out of here with a few morning showers sticking around. We still could see a shower or two into the afternoon, but the big story will be the windy conditions. We have a Wind Advisory through the afternoon with winds 20-30 mph with gusts possible up to 50 mph.

Temperatures will remain pretty mild for the week ahead and the coolest day looks like tomorrow with a high of 39. The rest of the week we will top out in the 40's and then a chance for rain on Thursday. I talked on Saturday about how we would be sandwiched between two systems and it looks like the Southern system will swing north and could bring a wintry mix Wednesday night and then showers on Thursday. After today a pretty quite week except for Thursday. Stay grounded today in the strong winds and have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Double dose weekend & severe weather Sunday night

The storm came, the storm left. It left us with almost exactly what the forecast was calling for. The one small change was that the leading edge of snow yesterday across the Northern Miami Valley fell as a little sleet and freezing rain as warm afternoon air in the upper atmosphere changed the precip type. The first line of precip was pretty light and then the real moisture kicked up and we had 1-3+" of snow with very light ice north of I-70, and under 1" of snow but 0.25-0.5" of ice to the south. Once again, the I-70 divide holds true...never been quite sure why, but that is time and time again the divide between snow and ice, or ice and rain. I have lived here over a quarter century and it always plays out that way.

Due to the snow and ice, we did cut-ins for Good Morning America this morning from 7AM-8AM and then from 9AM-11AM. We did a full hour on-air then from 8AM until 9AM. It was a lot of fun, but my voice was starting to go out by the end. Anyway, I am back in here now filling in for Chris Mulcahy to give him a day off since he was working for Jeff Booth, who had the week off for some vacation time. I never realized how quick I am with the graphics and forecast in the morning until I came back to weekends. I had everything done and now have time to write my blog and build a couple new graphics.

Well the snow and ice didn't go anywhere today unless you put salt on it...we will be cold again tonight with lows in the low mid teens. Tomorrow temperatures will climb through the day and evening ahead of our next system and by Sunday night into Monday morning our temps will be in the mid 40's so a decent amount of melting will take place. Sunday night strong to severe storms look to roll through the area with a lot of upper level atmospheric support. The timing, as of now, looks to be shortly after midnight Sunday night into Monday morning for the Ohio Valley. The main threat looks to be damaging winds and possible tornadic storms. The one up-side to the system is that it appears to weaken just before arriving to the Ohio Valley and most of the strongest weather will be to our southwest in Western Kentucky and Tennessee. It will need to be monitored very closely and I may have to come in a little earlier than normal Monday morning. Temperatures will fall behind the system and Tuesday we will top out in the mid-upper 30's. The rest of the week we will get back into the 40's, but the chance for rain is a little tricky. Right now there are a couple systems down the pike, but we seem to be sandwiched between them. On Thursday and Saturday we will have a system to our south and another system to our north on both of the days, but we may be dry between the two systems. The models are basically fighting between the polar and tropical jet stream and we are right between the two. I will keep you posted, but please make sure you keep your NOAA weather radio on for Sunday night in the event that severe weather breaks out.

Oh, if you live in or near the Mercer County, Ohio area you may be interested in this: The National Weather Service is having a (free) meeting this coming Thursday, January 26, at 6:30PM in Dicke Hall at the Wright State Lake Campus for CoCoRaHS recruitment. That stands for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, & Snow Network. The NWS needs ground reports of how much precip falls. The radar can give you an estimate, but the ground reports are what really help establish whether warnings or watches need to be issued based on the amount of precipitation. They will hook you up with a rain gauge and measuring board for snow, but most importantly, teach you how to measure the rain, hail, and snow properly. It would be a GREAT meeting to attend and is free. For more information check out the website they have set up: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/mercer_auglaize_cocorahs.php.

Stay safe on the snow & ice and I will see you back here Monday morning. Have a good one!

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael

Snow, sleet, & freezing rain for later today

Running a little behind this morning due to the tricky forecast and spending a lot more time dissecting the forecast models and building extra graphics for yesterday's snow and the snow/wintry mix of weather on the way later today and tonight. As far as yesterday's snow we had a few heavy bands of snow move through between I-70 and US36 and they saw between 1-2". North of there was around 1" and then the further South of I-70 you went the less you would see. Aight, on to what is on the way...
Snow will roll into the area in the late afternoon today and your evening commute could have a light coating of snow already. Snow will continue into the evening hours and warm air will work in from the south. The warm air will be in the upper atmosphere so it will melt the snow as it falls, but then the cold air at the surface will refreeze it into sleet...small ice pellets. This switch will take place just after the evening commute depending on where you live. Warmer air will continue to try to push into the area and that will mean that the rain will not be able to refreeze into sleet and fall as rain, but with temperatures at the surface below freezing we will see it freeze on contact...freezing rain. The warmer air will not affect the north as much as it will affect the south. The south will see the most icing and the least amount of snow...up to 1". The central parts of the Miami Valley will see about 1-2" of snow and a little less icing compared to the south. Then the far north will see the least amount of icing and will be dealing with more snow, 1-3+". It should all wrap up around daybreak tomorrow and then just remaining below freezing all day Saturday.

I will say this... this system is the one that you want to WAIT to shovel the driveway or sidewalk until tomorrow. Any snow under the layer of ice you can just break through and then easily remove the ice. If you shovel the snow tonight and then the ice freezes directly on the pavement then you will have a tough time trying to get it off. I dunno about you, but I am waiting to shovel until tomorrow morning when it is all out of here.

Saturday will be a mess on the roads because we look to remain below freezing all day long, but Sunday we will get into the mid 40's with rain for Monday and temperatures falling through the 40's through the day and mild temps in the 40's for next week... I am pretty sure a lot of people are looking forward to the 40's with the weather we have been seeing.

Best,
Andrew Buck Michael